<a href="http://momentumoptionstrading.com/trade-MEMBERS AREA
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL ” target=””>September 2012 | Members
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames. Closed Trades for 2012 (126-37, or 77% win rate, including Weekly Wrap which is 24-0).
1:35pm (EST)
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $61.21, down $0.38)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.40, up $0.30)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return: 12%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $60 this week
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $82.71, down $0.26)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.30, up $0.40)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.20
Return: 4%
Stop Target: None
Action: The market makers were a little stingy on the bid/ask so we had to pony up $1.25 to open the position. We have a mid-November target of $65 for the stock which would make these options to $5.
TiVo (TIVO, $10.04, down $0.13)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.60, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -14%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares have dipped to a low of $9.87 and we would like to see $10 hold today.
Coinstar (CSTR, $44.70, up $0.59)
October 42.50 puts (CSTR121020P00042500, $1.05, down $0.30)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.50
Return: 25%
Stop Target: $1.00 (Hard Stop)
Action: Our Hard Stop has been triggered so we are out of the trade. We will keep Coinstar on our Watch List as we still expect shares to dip below $40.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $46.59, down $0.26)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.75, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: 36%
Stop Target: Non
Action: We would like to see a close below $45 by Friday. A break below this level could lead to a trip to the low $40’s. Resistance is at $49.
eBay (EBAY, $47.45, down $0.48)
October 52.50 calls (EBAY121020C00052500, $0.30, down $0.30)
Entry Price: $1.00 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: -70%
Stop Target: None
Action: Let’s see where we are at by Friday before jumping ship. We have said there could be a back test to $46 so let’s see how it plays out.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.16, down $0.30)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.50, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -44%
Stop Target: None
Action: A move past $40 could easily get shares to $43-$45 which would get our calls up to the $3-$5 range. Support has been steady at $38.
JC Penney (JCP, $24.82, up $0.15)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $1.40, down $0.60)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12)
Return: 72%
Stop Target: $1.65 (Hard Stop)
Action: Our stop on the other half of the puts has been triggered after they traded to a high of $2.32.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $14.92, up $0.12)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.35, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: -22%
Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $0.90, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We have an $18-20 price target for the stock over the next 6 months and a break above $15.75 should get us there. The 52-week high is at $16.15. Near-term support is at $14.75-$14.50.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.66, up $0.30)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.75, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 7%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Continue to hold.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
Knight Capital Group January 2.50 calls (2013) (from August 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
We will update this section in the morning.
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10:35am (EST)
NEW TRADES!!!
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $60.68, down $0.91)
Buy to OPEN October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.25, up $0.15)
Action: Use limit orders up to $1.30 but do not pay more than $1.35-$1.40 to establish positions.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $82.71, down $0.26)
Buy to OPEN November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.10, up $0.20)
Action: Use limit orders up to $1.15-$1.20 but do not pay over $1.25-$1.30 to establish positions.
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9:00am (EST)
TiVo (TIVO, $10.17, up $0.23)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.70, up $0.17)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded to a high of $10.45 after an analyst upgrade that followed our lead. We said TiVo could run to $15 in 2013 after adding it to our Weekly Wrap last week and we gave a near-term target of $12. This would get the option to at least $2 which would be nearly a 150% return. If shares fall back below $10 there is support at $9.
Coinstar (CSTR, $44.11, down $0.73)
October 42.50 puts (CSTR121020P00042500, $1.35, up $0.25)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.50
Return: 73%
Stop Target: 80 cents, raise to $1 (Hard Stop)
Action: Shares fell to a low of $43.73 yesterday as the options reach $1.45. We would like to see a close below $43.50 today. Our near-term target is for a move below $40 and down to $37.50. If there is a rebound, we are looking for $45 to hold. We have raised the Stop Target to $1 and we have made it a Hard Stop.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $46.85, down $0.28)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.70, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: 27%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares tested $48 at the open yesterday before pulling back, rebounding, and then finishing lower by the final bell. The low came in at $46.66 and we would like to see a close below $45 by Friday. A break below this level could lead to a trip to the low $40’s. Resistance is at $49.
eBay (EBAY, $48.03, down $1.03)
October 52.50 calls (EBAY121020C00052500, $0.35, down $0.25)
Entry Price: $1.00 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: -65%
Stop Target: None
Action: We were looking for $49 to hld yesterday but shares finished near their low for the day. The next level of support comes in at $45 if $47.50 fails to hold. We don’t carry stops on options under $1 due to volatility and we would like to give the trade a little more time. Let’s see where we are at by Friday before jumping ship. We have said there could be a back test to $46 so let’s see how it plays out.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.46, up $0.10)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.60, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
Action: Akamai was rolling and pushing resistance at $40 before the market pulled back. Shares kissed a high of $39.47 as the options peaked at $1. A move past $40 could easily get shares to $43-$45 which would get our calls up to the $3-$5 range. Support has been steady at $38.
JC Penney (JCP, $24.67, up $0.02)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $2.00, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12)
Return: 94%
Stop Target: $1.65 (Hard Stop)
Action: We raised the Hard Stop up to $1.65 yesterday which held. Shares retreated off their high and $25 held as resistance. We would like to see a close below $24 today.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $14.80, down $0.03)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.30, flat)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $0.80, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -11%
Stop Target: None
Action: We have an $18-20 price target for the stock over the next 6 months and a break above $15.75 should get us there. The 52-week high is at $16.15. Near-term support is at $14.75-$14.50.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.36, down $0.56)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.65, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -7%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: We weren’t happy with yesterday’s 5% pullback but support has been holding at $11.00. Shares traded to a high of $11.99 and we have been looking for a close above $12. These are December options so we have plenty of time for the trade to play out.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
Knight Capital Group January 2.50 calls (2013) (from August 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
Caterpillar (CAT, $87.01, down $3.86)
October 85 puts (CAT121020P00085000, $1.80, up $0.90)
November 80 puts (CAT121117P00080000, $1.65, up $0.65)
Thoughts: Wow. Shares were holding steady at $88 in our midday update and we were hoping shares would end there and test $90 which is where we were looking to get into these puts. The October 85 puts opened at $1.20 and were around that price when we looked at a trade and figured they would come down to $1 on a retest back to $90. The November 80’s opened at $1.36. If there is no rebound today, take a look at the October 82.50 puts which closed at a buck.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $61.59, down $1.75)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.10, up $0.40)
Thoughts: Shares looked headed to double-nickels but could trip $50 if the market starts to break down.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $82.97, up $0.62)
October 75 puts (BWLD121020P00075000, $0.75, down $0.10)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $0.90, down $0.05)
Thoughts: Shares fell below $70 back in July on earnings and a retest could be in the cards on a break back below $80. The company’s next earnings announcement is October 15 so both of these puts can be used.
Ralph Lauren (RL, $151.49, down $2.17)
October 140 puts (RL121020P00140000, $1.00, up $0.05)
Thoughts: Shares could retest $140 if the pullback picks up steam.
Vivus (VVUS, $18.29, down $0.67)
October 17 puts (VVUS121020P00017000, $0.85, up $0.15)
December 24 calls (VVUS121222C00024000, $0.75, down $0.15)
Thoughts: This is a strangle trade on Vivus which has become a volatile stock over the past few sessions. Strong support is at $18 but if cracked it could be trouble. Shares are under pressure due to concerns Europe might not approve its obesity drug to market although it has passed FDA approval here at home. We feel the concerns are overblown.
OraSure Technologies (OSUR, $10.64, down $0.35)
January 12.50 calls (2013) (OSUR130119C00012500, $0.60, down $0.05)
Thoughts: Shares have been on a steady run lately and the 52-week high is just north of $14. We believe a test to new highs could come by yearend. The company is also a takeover target.
Netflix (NFLX, $53.80, down $2.59)
October 50 puts (NFLX121020P00050000, $1.45, up $0.55)
Thoughts: Another nice trade that caught wind yesterday. Our near-term target is for a test down to $50.
Blue Nile (NILE, $36.60, down $0.37)
October 35 puts (NILE121020P00035000, $1.10, down $0.10)
Thoughts: Near-term support is at $35 and the 50-day MA. A move below this level could lead to a test down to $30. Resistance is at $40 which was prior support.
Fossil (FOSL, $84.89, down $3.02)
October 75 puts (FOSL121020P00075000, $0.95, up $0.20)
December 55 puts (121222P00055000, $0.90, up $0.30)
Thoughts: We have a near-term target of $80 which would likely trip on a move back below $85 and a 6-12 month target of $40 if shares fall below $60.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ, $56.64, down $0.56)
October 60 calls (JAZZ121020C00060000, $0.90, down $0.20)
Thoughts: Support is at $55 but a run past $60 is coming.
Silver Wheaton (SLW, $38.01, down $0.33)
October 40 calls (SLW121020C00040000, $0.65, down $0.15)
Thoughts: We are waiting for a close above $40 before possibly going long again. Our near-term target is $43-$45 and support has been holding up at $38.
Monster Beverage (MNST, $53.99, down $0.41)
October 50 puts (MNST121020P00050000, $0.65, down $0.05)
October 52.50 puts (MNST121020P00052500, $1.30, flat)
Thoughts: We have a feeling shares are going to test $50 again and a break below this level should lead to a quick trip to $45.
Fusion-io (FIO, $29.47, down $0.64)
October 32 calls (FIO121020C00032000, $0.75, down $0.10)
Thoughts: Prior resistance at $30 is trying to hold as support. A close below $28 would be bearish and have us looking at put options.