9:00am (EST)
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $61.18, down $0.41)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.35, up $0.25)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12) Exit Target: $2.50 Return: 8% Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $60 this week. Our near-tem target is $55. Resistance is at $62.50.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $82.74, down $0.23)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.30, up $0.40)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12) Exit Target: $2.20 Return: 4% Stop Target: None
Action: We have a mid-November target of $65 for the stock which would get the options up to $5.
TiVo (TIVO, $10.01, down $0.16)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.60, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12) Exit Target: $1.40 Return: -14% Stop Target: None
Action: Shares held $10 by a penny. There is risk down to $9 but we believe shares will trip $12 by mid-November.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $46.84, down $0.01)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.65, down $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12) Exit Target: $1.10 Return: 18% Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $45 by Friday. A break below this level could lead to a trip to the low $40’s. Resistance is at $49.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $37.92, down $0.53)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.45, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12) Exit Target: $1.80 Return: -50% Stop Target: None
Action: Shares closed just below $38 which was slightly bearish. We are still expecting a move past $40 but there could be further risk down to $36.
JC Penney (JCP, $24.55, down $0.12)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $2.00, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12) Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12) Return: 94% Stop Target: $1.65 (Hard Stop)
Action: These options traded to a low of $1.72 and we quoted the September 26 puts yesterday which may have caused some confusion as we thought our trade was closed. We knew something was up when we saw the trade still open in our account. Our stop is at $1.65 on the other half of the trade and the Hard Stop would have triggered on a move above $25.25. The options traded to a high of $2.72 when shares fell to a low of $23.58. We would like to see $3 trigger on these puts but we may close the other half out if shares fall below $24 again. We may also “roll” the trade out as we expect shares to be trading in the mid-teens by year-end.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $14.99, up $0.19)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.40, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12) Exit Target: $0.90 Return: -11% Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $0.95, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12) Exit Target: $1.80 Return: 6% Stop Target: None
Action: Shares kissed $15 before finishing a penny below this level. We have an $18-20 price target for the stock over the next 6 months and a break above $15.75 should get us there. The 52-week high is at $16.15. Near-term support is at $14.75-$14.50.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.52, up $0.16)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.70, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12) Exit Target: $1.40 Return: 0% Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares reached a peak of $15.75 yesterday and we would love to see a close above $12 this week.
Knight Capital Group
January 2.50 calls (2013) (KCG130119C00002500, $0.35, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.70 (8/21/12) Exit Target: $1.40 Return: -36% Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Our Knight trade has been on “hold” but we are bring back coverage after shares jumped 9% yesterday. Shares were near $2.80 when we entered this trade back in August after tumbling from $10 to $2.50 in late July on the company’s trading fiasco. We think a buyout offer north of $5 could be in the cards by yearend. These are “cheap” options so for this of you not in this trade, we still like it at current levels.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
eBay October 52.50 calls (from September 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
Caterpillar (CAT, $86.95, down $0.06)
October 82.50 puts (CAT121020P00082500, $1.00, flat)
November 80 puts (CAT121117P00080000, $1.70, up $0.05)
Thoughts: Shares tested a low of $85.80 yesterday and we are now following the October 82.50 puts which we may pick up on a break below $85.
Coinstar (CSTR, $45.10, up $0.99)
October 42.50 puts (CSTR121020P00042500, $0.95, down $0.40)
Thoughts: Our Hard Stop of $1 was triggered yesterday and we would love to see these options come back down to under 75 cents which is where we may go long again.
Ralph Lauren (RL, $150.91, down $0.18)
October 140 puts (RL121020P00140000, $1.10, up $0.10)
Thoughts: Shares could retest $140 if the pullback picks up steam.
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF, $14.74, down $0.01)
October 15 puts (LGF121020P00015000, $0.60, up $0.05)
November 14 puts (LGF121117P00014000, $0.50, up $0.10)
Thoughts: We would wait for shares to drop below $14 to confirm a breakdown that could push shares down to $10.
Vivus (VVUS, $17.90, down $0.39)
October 17 puts (VVUS121020P00017000, $1.00, up $0.25)
December 24 calls (VVUS121222C00024000, $0.70, down $0.05)
Thoughts: We knew $18 could trip once $20 fell and shares are at a dangerous level. If there is a further breakdown, shares could test $15.
OraSure Technologies(OSUR, $10.79, up $0.15)
January 12.50 calls (2013) (OSUR130119C00012500, $0.60, flat)
Thoughts: Shares have been on a steady run lately and the 52-week high is just north of $14. We believe a test to new highs could come by yearend. The company is also a takeover target.
Netflix (NFLX, $55.13, up $1.33)
October 50 puts (NFLX121020P00050000, $1.10, down $0.35)
Thoughts: Share made a back test to $55 yesterday and this looks like a good entry points. There is still risk up to $57 so let’s see how shares open.
Blue Nile (NILE, $36.32, down $0.38)
October 35 puts (NILE121020P00035000, $1.20, up $0.10)
Thoughts:Near-term support is at $35 and the 50-day MA. A move below this level could lead to a test down to $30. Resistance is at $40 which was prior support.
Fossil (FOSL, $84.13, down $0.76)
October 75 puts (FOSL121020P00075000, $1.15, up $0.20)
December 55 puts (121222P00055000, $1.00, up $0.10)
Thoughts: We have a near-term target of $80 which would likely trip on a move back below $85 and a 6-12 month target of $40 if shares fall below $60.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ, $54.79, down $1.85)
October 60 calls (JAZZ121020C00060000, $0.50, down $0.40)
Thoughts: We mentioned in our Weekly Wrap on Sunday that shares could pull back but that we like the long-term prospects of the company. Shares fell below $55 and there could be further risk down to $50 which is prior resistance.
Silver Wheaton (SLW, $37.65, down $0.36)
October 40 calls (SLW121020C00040000, $0.60, down $0.05)
Thoughts: We are waiting for a close above $40 before possibly going long again. Our near-term target is $43-$45 and support has been holding up at $38.
Monster Beverage (MNST, $53.31, down $0.68)
October 50 puts (MNST121020P00050000, $0.90, up $0.35)
October 52.50 puts (MNST121020P00052500, $1.65, up $0.35)
Thoughts: We have a feeling shares are going to test $50 again and a break below this level should lead to a quick trip to $45.
Fusion-io (FIO, $29.27, down $0.27)
October 32 calls (FIO121020C00032000, $0.70, down $0.05)
Thoughts: Support is at $28 and a close below this level would be bearish. We are still expecting a run past $30 if the market holds up.