9:00am (EST)
Coinstar (CSTR, $44.83, down $1.38)
October 42.50 puts (CSTR121020P00042500, $1.10, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.50
Return: 47%
Stop Target: 80 cents
Action: We got our close below $45 this week as shares traded down to $44.77. Our near-term target is for a move below $40 and down to $37.50. If there is a rebound, resistance is at $47.50.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $47.13, down $0.53)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.65, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: 18%
Stop Target: None
Action: We have a near-term target of $45 for the stock and a break below this level could trigger a trip to the low $40’s. Resistance is at $49.
eBay (EBAY, $49.31, down $0.16)
October 52.50 calls (EBAY121020C00052500, $0.60, down $0.05)
Entry Price: $1.00 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: -40%
Stop Target: None
Action: Near-term support is at $49. A break below this level could lead to a back test to $46 but we are still expecting new highs by mid-October on a close above $50 this week.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.36, down $0.45)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.60, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
Action: Resistance is at $40. A move above this level could easily get shares to $43-$45. Support has been steady at $38.
JC Penney (JCP, $24.65, down $1.24)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $2.00, up $0.60)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12)
Return: 94%
Stop Target: $1.30, raise to $1.50 (Hard Stop)
Action: Shares traded to a low of $24.50 yesterday as the options reached $2.03. We raised the Hard Stop to $1.30 yesterday and we are going to bump it up to $1.50 today. We still expect shares to trade under $20 but if there is a rebound we will lock-in profits.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $14.83, up $0.03)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.30, flat)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $0.80, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -11%
Stop Target: None
Action: We have an $18-20 price target for the stock over the next 6 months and a break above $15.75 should get us there. The 52-week high is at $16.15. Near-term support is at $14.75-$14.50.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.92, up $0.11)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.90, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 29%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Resistance has been strong at $12 and the 100-day MA. A close above this level would get $12.50-$13 back in the mix. Support has been holding at $11.00.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
Knight Capital Group January 2.50 calls (2013) (from August 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
Caterpillar (CAT, $90.87, down $0.85)
October 85 puts (CAT121020P00085000, $0.87, up $0.07)
November 80 puts (CAT121117P00080000, $1.00, up $0.05)
Thoughts: We may go short if shares break below $90. Shares have made a nice run off their September low of $81.78 and appear ready for a back test to $85 or lower.
Vivus (VVUS, $18.96, down $2.04)
October 17 puts (VVUS121020P00017000, $0.70, up $0.40)
December 24 calls (VVUS121222C00024000, $0.90, down $0.50)
Thoughts: This is a strangle trade on Vivus which has become a volatile stock over the past few sessions. Strong support is at $18 but if cracked it could be trouble. Shares are under pressure due to concerns Europe might not approve its obesity drug to market although it has passed FDA approval here at home. We feel the concerns are overblown.
OraSure Technologies (OSUR, $10.99, down $0.36)
January 12.50 calls (2013) (OSUR130119C00012500, $0.65, down $0.15)
Thoughts: Shares have been on a steady run lately and the 52-week high is just north of $14. We believe a test to new highs could come by yearend. The company is also a takeover target.
Netflix (NFLX, $56.49, down $1.40)
October 50 puts (NFLX121020P00050000, $0.90, up $0.10)
Thoughts: We will look for a pop back to $60 but we may enter these options if they stay under $1. Our near-term target is for a test down to $50 but if shares move above $60 the trend would be broken.
Blue Nile (NILE, $36.97, up $0.12)
October 35 puts (NILE121020P00035000, $1.2, down $0.20)
Thoughts: Near-term support is at $35 and the 50-day MA. A move below this level could lead to a test down to $30. Resistance is at $40 which was prior support.
Fossil (FOSL, $87.91, down $1.80)
December 55 puts (121222P00055000, $0.60, up $0.10)
Thoughts: We have a near-term target of $80 which would likely trip on a move back below $85 and a 6-12 month target of $40 if shares fall below $60.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ, $57.20, down $1.30)
October 60 calls (JAZZ121020C00060000, $1.10, down $0.50)
Thoughts: Support is at $55 but a run past $60 is coming.
TiVo (TIVO, $9.94, up $0.38)
October 10 calls (TIVO121020C00010000, $0.35, down $0.15)
Thoughts: We have been expecting a pop to over $10 for TiVo and yesterday’s high was $10.45. The options opened at 83 cents and reached 88 cents before the premium got whacked. We like the calls at current levels but we may move further out in the option chain as we feel shares will trip $15 over the next 6-12 months.
Silver Wheaton (SLW, $38.34, down $1.57)
October 40 calls (SLW121020C00040000, $0.80, down $0.75)
Thoughts: We are waiting for a close above $40 before possibly going long again. Our near-term target is $43-$45 and support has been holding up at $38.
Monster Beverage (MNST, $54.40, down $0.30)
October 50 puts (MNST121020P00050000, $0.70, down $0.10)
October 52.50 puts (MNST121020P00052500, $1.30, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We have a feeling shares are going to test $50 again and a break below this level should lead to a quick trip to $45.
Fusion-io (FIO, $30.11, up $0.02)
October 32 calls (FIO121020C00032000, $0.85, down $0.05)
Thoughts: Prior resistance at $30 is trying to hold as support. A close below $28 would be bearish and have us looking at put options.