MomentumOptions.com Pre-Market Update for 5/15/2025
S&P, Nasdaq Clear Multiple Resistance Levels
* The ongoing v-shape recovery has pushed the major indexes towards late February / early March levels and has created a fresh bull market.
* The Nasdaq and the S&P cleared their 200-day moving averages on Monday’s breakout to higher highs following news of the U.S.-China trade deal.
* The Dow and the Russell cleared their first layers of resistance on Monday with Wednesday’s losses pushing the blue-chips back below the 200-day moving average. The small-caps are still 5% away from clearing the 200-day moving average.
Wall Street was mixed on Wednesday with Tech leading the way higher after the Nasdaq posted its six-straight win. The blue-chips and small-caps struggled but held fresh support levels that had served as prior resistance.
The Nasdaq traded up to 19,174 before ending at 19,146 (+0.7%). Fresh resistance at 19,250 held. Support is at 19,000.
The S&P 500 closed at 5,892 (+0.1%) after reaching an intraday peak of 5,906. Resistance at 5,900 was cleared but held. Support is at 5,850.
The Dow dipped to a low of 41,952 while settling at 42,051 (-0.2%). Support at 42,000 was breached but held. Resistance is at 42,250.
Earnings and Economic News
Before the open: Alibaba (BABA), Deere & Company (DE), NetEase (NTES), Walmart (WMT)
After the close: Applied Materials (AMAT), Cava Group (CAVA), Beam Global (BEEM), Doximity (DOCS), Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE)
Economic News
Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30am
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey – 8:30am
Producer Price Index – 8:30am
Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30am
Retail Sales – 8:30am
Business Inventories – 10:00am
Home Builder Confidence Index – 10:00am
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
The ongoing v-shape recovery has pushed the major indexes towards late February / early March levels and has created a fresh bull market. The Nasdaq and the S&P cleared their 200-day moving averages on Monday’s breakout to higher highs following news of the U.S.-China trade deal.
The Dow and the Russell cleared their first layers of resistance on Monday with Wednesday’s losses pushing the blue-chips back below the 200-day moving average. The small-caps are still 5% away from clearing the 200-day moving average.
The charts are simplified this week to clearly show the uptrend channels and key resistance levels for the major indexes. The starting point comes from the early April lows with a breakdown out of these uptrend channels being the first warning signal of a pause, or, an overall market pullback.
The Nasdaq remains on track to test 20,000. This level is currently 4% away from Wednesday’s close.
The bottom of the current uptrend channel is at 18,000 with a move below the 200-day moving average (18,339) likely signaling a near-term top.
The S&P 500 could be headed to 6,100 this month, or next, with the middle of the uptrend channel at 6,000. The latter also represents another 4% upside move.
The bottom of the current uptrend channel is at 5,800 with a drop below the 200-day moving average (5,754) suggesting a short-term peak.
The Russell 2000 doesn’t have much wiggle room for weakness as the bottom of its uptrend channel is near 2,050. There could be stretch down to 2,000-1,975 and the 50-day moving average, which has now leveled out, if 2,050 fails to hold into the weekend. This is a bullish development going forward as long as it holds on a retest.
Continued closes above 2,100 would imply ongoing momentum to 2,200 and the 200-day moving average. If reached, it would represent a 6% pop from Wednesday’s close.
The Dow is below the middle of its uptrend channel with the bottom basically at 41,000 and the 50-day moving average. These is a chance 40,000 comes into play if the aforementioned levels fail to hold. A close below 40,000 would confirm a false breakout, or an island reversal.
Continued closes back above the 200-day moving average keeps 44,000 in focus. If reached, it would represent a 5% move from Wednesday’s close.
The Volatility Index (VIX) closed below 20 and the 200-day moving average on Monday and was one of the first signs we wanted to see this week for an ongoing rally. These levels are now resistance.
Tuesday’s low tagged 17.65 with continued closes below 17.50 being very bullish for the market. At some point, if the major indexes do make a run at all-time highs over the summer, the VIX could trade down to 15-12.50.
With the major indexes gapping up into fresh zones, it will be important new support levels hold. If not, there is a chance these gaps get filled, meaning a pullback could coming at some point this month with this week’s action represented a false breakout.
There is a bevy of economic news this morning before the open and just after that could impact trading. We could have additional updates today and tomorrow so stay locked-and-loaded.
Momentum Options Play List
Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2025: 21-5 (81%) / 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners). Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.
Petrobras (PBR, $12.15, down $0.04)
PBR July 13 calls (PBR250718C00013000, $0.25, unchanged)
Entry Price: $0.25 (5/13/2025)
Exit Target: $0.50
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: Yesterday’s low tagged $11.98 with upper support at $12-$11.75 getting tripped but holding. Resistance is at $12.25-$12.50 and the 50-day moving average.
The company missed earnings by a tad and shares held up well afterwards. The technical outlook is turning more bullish with the 50-day moving average flatting out. There is gap up potential to $14 on continued closes above $13.
Mobileye Global (MBLY, $16.72, down $0.22)
MBLY June 19 calls (MBLY250620C00019000, $0.45, down $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.50 (5/13/2025)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: -10%
Stop Target: None
Action: Yesterday’s low kissed $16.54 with new support at $16.50 holding for the past three sessions. Closes above $17.25 could lead to a quick trip to $19-$20.
The 50-day moving average is back in an uptrend and could easily clear the 200-day moving average on a spike above $17.50. This would form a golden cross and is typically a bullish indicator for higher highs.
Sony Group (SONY, $24.70, up $0.25)
SONY June 27 calls (SONY250620C00027000, $0.25, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.70 (4/29/2025)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -64%
Stop Target: None
Action: Key resistance at $25.50 was cleared but held with the high hitting $25.62. Support is at $24.50 with a move below this level likely forcing an early exit.
Earnings were better-than-expected but revenue slightly missed analysts forecasts. These calls still have a month before expiration so continue to hold.
Alcoa (AA, $29.68, up $1.02)
AA June 30 calls (AA250620C00030000, $1.70, up $0.55)
Entry Price: $0.90 (4/24/2025)
Exit Target: $2.50 (closed half at $1.70 on 5/14)
Return: 89%
Stop Target: $1.25, raise to $1.40 (Stop Limit)
Action: Raise the Stop Limit at $1.25 to $1.40. This Alert was more expensive than most of our updates and why we wanted to lock-in half profits. Additional, the action played out exactly how we predicted on the close above $26 and gap up to $30. We can still enjoy higher highs but the raised Stop Limit will further protect profits in case shares stall.
Shares traded to a high of $29.86 with key resistance at $30 holding. Support is at $29.25-$29.
Sofi Technologies (SOFI, $14.03, down $0.26)
SOFI May 15 calls (SOFI250516C00015000, $0.05, up $0.03)
Entry Price: $0.55 (3/12/2025)
Exit Target: $1.10 (Limit Order)
Return: -91%
Stop Target: 60 cents (Stop Limit, didn’t trip on -6.7% drop on 3/27)
Action: Key resistance at $14.50 was cleared but held with the high at $14.78. Support is at $14.
If shares are not above $15 in the final hour of trading today, exit the Alert to save any remaining premium.