| Bulls Extend Uptrend Channels on Fresh Highs The market stayed strong on Friday to cap another bullish week following a better-than-expected jobs report. Specifically, non-farm payrolls rose by 115,000 last month versus forecasts for a print of 60,000. The jobless rate held steady at 4.3%. The Nasdaq kissed a record peak of 26,248 while finishing at 26,247 (1.7%). Fresh resistance at 26,000 was cleared and held. Rising and new support is at 25,250. The S&P 500 ended at 7,398 (0.8%) after hitting a late day and all-time high of 7,401. Undefined resistance at 7,400 was cleared but held by a smidge. Support is at 7,225. The Dow traded up to 49,835 before closing at 49,613 (0.02%). Resistance at 50,000 held. Support is at 49,250. Earnings and Economic News Before the open: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Barrick Mining (B) After the close: Hims & Hers (HIMS), Plug Power (PLUG), CleanSpark (CLSK), Economic News Existing Home Sales – 10:00am Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts For the week, the Nasdaq surged 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3%. The Russell jumped 1.4% while the Dow nudged up 0.2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has now zoomed 13% and the S&P has rallied 8%. The Dow is up 3% and the Russell has skyrocketed 15% this year. Upbeat tech earnings lifted Tech and the broader market last week despite back-and-forth chatter on peace talks between the United Staes and Iran. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P have posted six-straight winning weeks, marking their longest win streaks since 2024. We have talked about the uptrend channels that have been in play since the ongoing rally off the March 30th lows. We mentioned their was a slight hiccup the prior week and that we would readjust the uptrend channels if higher highs were made. Bingo. The Dow is still struggling at clearing a possible-double top and has been in a 16-session trading range. Therefor, we have not adjusted its uptrend channel. Nvidia’s earnings aren’t due out until May 20th and we will be looking for possible clues into and after the announcement for a possible breakout, or breakdown in the index. The blue-chips remain is a 16-session range with crucial support at 48,750. Closes below 48,000 and the 50-day moving average would be a bearish development and likely indicate a near-term top. Key resistance is at 50,000 with Thursday’s peak at 50,135. Closes above 50,500 and the February 10th all-time top at 50,512 would suggest strength up to 52,000-53,000.  The Russell 2000 traded to a lifetime high of 2,888 on Wednesday with our lower price target from April 17th at 2,900-3,000 getting challenged. Multiple closes above the latter renews an ongoing FOMO rally up to 3,050-3,100. Current support is at 2,825-2,800 with backup help at 2,725. Closes below 2,675 and the 50-day moving average would indicate a near-term top.  The Nasdaq hit a record peak of 26,248 after clearing our upper and revised Price Targets at 24,750-25,250 from April 17th. There is ongoing stretch up to 26,500-26,750 on closes above 26,250. Rising support is at 25,250-25,000. Closes back below 24,000 would suggest a near-term peak.  The S&P 500 touched a new record high of 7,401 on Friday. We recently predicted closes above our January 9th target at 7,150 would be bullish for further gains up to 7,350-7,500 and that has come quick. Support is at 7,225-7,100. Closes below 7,000 would imply a possible top with retest potential down to 6,850-6,750 and the 50-day/ 200-day moving averages.  The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has closed below 17.50 for four-straight sessions with the mid-week low at 16.18. We predicted the VIX could trade down to 17.50-15 during May and the height of the first-quarter earnings season. This has been split. The December 24th low is at 13.38 with back-to-back battles at the 13.50 level around that time period. Resistance targets for the bears remain at 20-22. Closes above 22.50 could lead to strength towards 24-26 and will likely confirm a near-term market peak and upcoming WEAKNESS.  We have been a broken record mentioning the relative strength index (RSI) levels for the major indexes as they have remained above and near the 70 level for the past four weeks on the Nasdaq and the S&P. Readings above this level indicates overbought conditions with the Nasdaq’s current RSI at 80 and a level last seen in 2024. We have also been telling you the market, individual stocks and ETF’s, can stay overbought and RSI levels can stay extended for weeks and months. We are continuing to watch key support levels on the major indexes for more precise clues on when the market will pullback again. The first waves and second waves of support are at: Nasdaq 25,250-24,500; S&P 500 7,225-7,100; Russell 2,800-2,725; and Dow 49,250-48,750. We went on record and listed 2027 Price Targets of Nasdaq 30,000; S&P 8,500; Russell 3,500; and Dow 55,000. Please keep in mind, the major indexes could also test the late March lows, and perhaps make lower lows for the remainder of 2026. In February 2024, we predicted 25%-30% gains for the major indexes that played out perfectly in 2025 and into February 2026. These fresh price targets for the major indexes aren’t as aggressive as our previous numbers but are still in the mid-teens, percentage wise. For the year, the Track Record is now at 23-4 (85% win rate) for our Velocity Options directional Alerts with FIVE triple-digit winners: IRDM calls 120%; KEY calls 107%; VIAV calls 271% and 319%; and BCRX calls 100%. We could have another round of New Alerts this week so stay locked-and-loaded. Don’t forget to signup for Text Alerts if you haven’t done so already. Momentum Options Alerts Update for 5/11/2026 Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 23-4 (85%, 5 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 189-52 (78% win rate) 68 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week. Text Alerts (Telegram):Velocity Options: https://t.me/+uzxYHX8YEh85MzYx Plug Power (PLUG, $3.12, down $0.01) Option: PLUG September 4 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.50 (5/5/2026)Current Option Price: $0.50Exit Target: $1.00Return: -10%Stop Target: None Action: There could be breakout potential to $4.50 after Monday’s close if earnings are better-than-expected and there isn’t a disappointment in the company’s outlook. We would like to see a profitable quarter as Wall Street is looking for a loss of 9 cents. A print better than this and a revenue number higher than $140 million would be the breakout news we are looking for. A worse-than-expected loss, and/ or a revenue miss, could send shares towards $2.50 and the 50-day moving average. This event is one of the reasons we went with September calls as they have 130 days before expiration. |
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Vale S.A. (VALE, $16.63, up $0.44) Option: VALE June 19 callsExpiration Date: June 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.55 (4/20/2026)Current Option Price: $0.12Exit Target: $1.10Return: -78%Stop Target: None Action: The June calls still have 38 days before expiration. Shares made a higher week high on Friday at $16.66. Lower resistance at $16.75-$17 held. Support is at $16.25-$16 and the 50-day moving average. |
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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX, $8.62, down $0.28) Option: BCRX June 12 callsExpiration Date: June 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.53 (3/24/2026)Current Option Price: $0.20Exit Target: $1.10Return: -62%Stop Target: None Action: Late February and key support at $8 was tripped but held on Thursday following disappointing earnings. Resistance is at $9-$9.25 and the 50-day moving average. Buyout rumors (from mid-March) could come around again by the summertime and why we continue to hold this Alert. The “bid” is at 30 cents. If $8 fails to hold, we will reevaluate the Alert. |
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