MEMBERS AREA
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames. Closed Trades for 2012 (131-43, or 75% win rate, including Weekly Wrap which is 24-0).
1:00pm (EST)
JC Penney (JCP, $24.38, down $0.03)
November 22 puts (JCP121117P00022000, $0.95, flat)
Entry Price: $0.95 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.90
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We are looking for shares to drop below $20 and test the mid-teens by mid-November.
First Solar (FSLR, $22.24, down $0.88)
October 20 puts (FSLR121020P00020000, $0.85, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.85 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We only plan on being in this trade for a week or less and we think shares could test $20 next week on a pullback.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $61.28, down $0.62)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.20, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return: -4%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded to a low of $60.69 today which we would like to see tested by the close.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $85.68, down $0.11)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.25, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.20
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: There is risk for a back test to $87.50 after $85 failed to hold. These are November options so we have plenty of time for this trade to play out. We would like to see a close back below $85 today..
TiVo (TIVO, $10.43, up $0.11)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.80, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 14%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded up to $10.42 yesterday and on Monday and Tuesday they reached $10.45. We would like to see a pop past $10.50 on the close today.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $47.64, down $0.26)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.45, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: -18%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $47 today.
eBay (EBAY, $48.47, down $0.65)
October 52.50 calls (EBAY121020C00052500, $0.45, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.00 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.00-$1.50
Return: -55%
Stop Target: None
Action: We are going to give the trade another week.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.04, down $0.45)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.45, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -50%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a finish above $39 by the closing bell and $40 would be even better.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $15.79, up $0.19)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.80, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed HALF at 80 cents on 9/28/12)
Return: 78%
Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $1.30, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 44%
Stop Target: None
Action: We wanted to close half of the October calls to lock-in profits. Shares hit $15.64 earlier this month and we have said a close above $15.75 could propel them to new 52-week highs. Yesterday’s top came in at $15.62.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.40, down $0.29)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.65, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -7%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares reached a peak of $11.89 yesterday. We are still waiting for a close above $12 which should give shares some momentum.
Knight Capital Group (KCG, $2.67, flat)
January 2.50 calls (2013) (KCG130119C00002500, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (8/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -36%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares were near $2.80 when we entered this trade back in August after tumbling from $10 to $2.50 in late July on the company’s trading fiasco. We think a buyout offer north of $5 could be in the cards by yearend. These are “cheap” options so for this of you not in this trade, we still like it at current levels.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
We will update this section on Monday.
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11:25am
NEW TRADES!!!
JC Penney (JCP, $24.21, down $0.24)
Buy to OPEN November 22 puts (JCP121117P00022000, $0.95, flat)
Action: Use limit orders up to $1.00-$1.05 but do not pay over $1.10 to establish positions.
First Solar (FSLR, $22.47, down $0.64)
Buy to OPEN October 20 puts (FSLR121020P00020000, $0.85, up $0.10)
Action: We only plan on being in this trade for a week or less and we think shares could test $20 next week on a pullback. Use limit orders up to 90-95 cents but do not pay over $1-$1.05 to establish positions.
CURRENT TRADES
JC Penney (JCP, $24.21, down $0.24)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $2.10, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12)
Return: 100%
Stop Target: $1.80 (Hard Stop)
Action: Close the other half of the trade at current levels.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $15.67, up $0.07)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.80, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: 78%
Stop Target: None
Action: Close HALF the trade at current levels. We will leave the other half open for a possible run past $16 and we still have a full position with the January call options.
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9:00am (EST)
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $61.90, up $0.72)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $1.05, down $0.30)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return: -16%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded down to $60.77 before testing a high of $62.22. Resistance is at $62.50 which held.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $85.79, up $3.05)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.20, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.20
Return: -4%
Stop Target: None
Action: There is risk for a back test to $87.50 after $85 faled to hold yesterday. These are November options so we have plenty of time for this trade to play out. We would like to see a close back below $85 today..
TiVo (TIVO, $10.32, up $0.31)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.75, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 7%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded up to $10.42 yesterday and on Monday and Tuesday they reached $10.45. We would like to see a pop past $10.50 on the close today.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $47.90, up $1.06)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.35, down $0.30)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: -36%
Stop Target: None
Action: Resistance at $49 held yesterday and we will stick with the trade as long as $50 holds.
eBay (EBAY, $49.12, up $1.58)
October 52.50 calls (EBAY121020C00052500, $0.60, up $0.30)
Entry Price: $1.00 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.00-$1.50
Return: -40%
Stop Target: None
Action: eBay made a sweet comeback yesterday as the options doubled but we are not out of the woods, yet. We would like to see a close above $50 today which would give shares a shot at $52-$53 heading into October.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.49, up $0.57)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.55, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -39%
Stop Target: None
Action: The options peaked at 68 cents after shares kissed $38.95 yesterday. We would like to see a finish above $39 by the closing bell and $40 would be even better.
JC Penney (JCP, $24.45, down $0.10)
October 26 puts (JCP121020P00026000, $2.10, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.80 (9/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed half at $1.10 on 9/20/12)
Return: 100%
Stop Target: $1.80 (Hard Stop)
Action: We raised the Hard Stop again yesterday to $1.80 which would be triggered on a move past $25. We are watching the November 22 puts (JCP121117P00022000, $0.95, up $0.05) as a possible add-on trade.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $15.60, up $0.61)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $0.70, up $0.30)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: 56%
Stop Target: None
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $1.25, up $0.30)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 39%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares hit $15.64 earlier this month and we have said a close above $15.75 could propel them to new 52-week highs. Yesterday’s top came in at $15.62.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.69, up $0.17)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.75, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 7%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares reached a peak of $11.89 yesterday. We are still waiting for a close above $12 which should give shares some momentum.
Knight Capital Group(KCG, $2.67, up $0.06)
January 2.50 calls (2013) (KCG130119C00002500, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (8/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -36%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares were near $2.80 when we entered this trade back in August after tumbling from $10 to $2.50 in late July on the company’s trading fiasco. We think a buyout offer north of $5 could be in the cards by yearend. These are “cheap” options so for this of you not in this trade, we still like it at current levels.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo Group October 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
Caterpillar (CAT, $86.92, down $0.03)
October 82.50 puts (CAT121020P00082500, $0.90, down $0.10)
November 80 puts (CAT121117P00080000, $1.55, down $0.15)
Thoughts: We might go with one of these put options if shares fall below $85.
Coinstar (CSTR, $45.03, down $0.07)
October 42.50 puts (CSTR121020P00042500, $0.95, flat)
Thoughts: Resistance at $45 is trying to stick.
Ralph Lauren (RL, $151.97, up $1.06)
October 140 puts (RL121020P00140000, $0.85, down $0.25)
Thoughts: Shares could retest $140-$135 if $150 fails to hold..
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF, $14.90, up $0.16)
October 15 puts (LGF121020P00015000, $0.50, down $0.10)
November 14 puts (LGF121117P00014000, $0.40, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We would wait for shares to drop below $14 to confirm a breakdown that could push shares as low as $10.
Vivus (VVUS, $17.82, down $0.08)
October 17 puts (VVUS121020P00017000, $0.90, down $0.10)
December 24 calls (VVUS121222C00024000, $0.60, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We knew $18 could trip once $20 fell and shares are at a dangerous level. If there is a further breakdown, shares could test $15.
OraSureTechnologies (OSUR, $10.71, down $0.08)
January 12.50 calls (2013) (OSUR130119C00012500, $0.60, flat)
Thoughts: Shares have been on a steady run lately and the 52-week high is just north of $14. We believe a test to new highs could come by yearend. The company is also a takeover target.
Netflix (NFLX, $55.55, up $0.42)
October 50 puts (NFLX121020P00050000, $0.95, down $0.15)
Thoughts: There is still risk up to $57.
Blue Nile (NILE, $37.83, up $1.61)
October 35 puts (NILE121020P00035000, $0.75, down $0.45)
Thoughts: Resistance is at $40 which was prior support. Near-term support is at $35 and the 50-day MA. A move below this level could lead to a test down to $30.
Fossil (FOSL, $86.32, up $2.19
October 75 puts (FOSL121020P00075000, $0.90, down $0.25)
December 55 puts (121222P00055000, $0.60, down $0.20)
Thoughts: We have a near-term target of $80 which would likely trip on a move back below $85 and a 6-12 month target of $40 if shares fall below $60.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ, $57.15, up $2.36)
October 60 calls (JAZZ121020C00060000, $1.00, up $0.40)
Thoughts: Continue to watch.
Silver Wheaton (SLW, $39.42, up $1.77)
October 40 calls (SLW121020C00040000, $1.20, up $0.60)
Thoughts: We are waiting for a close above $40 before possibly going long again. Our near-term target is $43-$45 and support has been holding up at $38.
Monster Beverage (MNST, $53.44, up $0.13)
October 50 puts (MNST121020P00050000, $0.80, down $0.10)
October 52.50 puts (MNST121020P00052500, $1.50, down $0.15)
Thoughts: We have a feeling shares are going to test $50 again and a break below this level should lead to a quick trip to $45.
Fusion-io (FIO, $30.35, up $1.15)
October 32 calls (FIO121020C00032000, $1.05, up $0.35)
Thoughts: Support is at $28 and a close below this level would be bearish. We are still expecting a run past $30 if the market holds up.