MEMBERS AREA
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any tradesor “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “New Trade” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames. Closed Trades for 2013: 115-55 – the Weekly Wrap is 38-3 for 2013 (82-5 since 2011) and is designed for traders that want to use options with less risk.
General Electric (GE, $25.50, up $0.82)
November 24 calls (GE131116C00024000, $1.60, up $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.70 (10/17/13)
Exit Target: $1.40 (closed HALF at $1.40 on 10/18/13)
Return: 114%
Stop Target: $1.15 (Stop Limit)
Action: We would love to see a close above $25.50 today as we feel shares can push $26-$27 over the near-term.
H&R Block (HRB, $29.24, up $0.16)
November 29 calls (HRB131116C00029000, $1.00, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.45 (10/15/13)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: 122%
Stop Target: 45 cents
Action: We are expecting a run past $30 over the next week or 2. Support is at $26.
Opko Health (OPK, $11.84, down $0.54)
November 11 calls (OPK131116C00011000, $1.30, down $0.35)
Entry Price: $0.45 (10/14/13)
Exit Target: $1.00 (closed half at $1.05 on 10/15/2013)
Return: 172%
Stop Target: $1.40 (Stop Limit)
December 12 calls (OPK131221C00012000, $1.05, down $0.35)
Entry Price: $0.40 (10/14/13)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed half at $0.90 on 10/15/2013)
Return: 150%
Stop Target: $1.10 (Stop Limit)
Action: Our limit stops have been triggered at $1.40 on the November 11 calls and $1.10 on the December 12 calls! If you haven’t closed the other half of the trades, do so now.
Aruba Networks (ARUN, $18.78, up $0.21)
November 20 calls (ARUN131116C00020000, $0.40, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/11/13)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return: -50%
Stop Target: None
Action: A move past $20 should get $22 in play. Support is at $18.
MGM Resorts International (MGM, $20.62, down $0.16)
November 21 calls (MGM131116C00021000, $0.80, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/7/13)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We believe shares can make a run past $22-$23 by mid-November. Support is at $20 with risk down to $19.50. Earnings are due out on October 28.
Safeway (SWY, $33.49, up $0.11)
November 34 calls (SWY131116C00034000, $0.80, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/2/13)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed a quarter at $1.10 on 10/11/2013)
Return: 9%
Stop Target: None
Action: We are expected a run to $35 as long as support holds at $32.
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG, $13.11, up $0.25)
November 13 calls (KOG131116C00013000, $0.80, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.50 (10/1/13)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: 60%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: We have said shares could trade to $15 if momentum returns and $13 is cleared. We like this trade as long as $11 holds.
Other 2013 Portfolio OPEN positions (0): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2013Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
We will update this section on Monday with some fresh ideas.
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10:50am (EST)
General Electric (GE, $25.25, up $0.57)
November 24 calls (GE131116C00024000, $1.40, up $0.55)
Entry Price: $0.70 (10/17/13)
Exit Target: $1.40 (closed HALF at $1.40 on 10/18/13)
Return: 100%
Stop Target: 45 cents, raise to $1.15 (Stop Limit)
Action: The options opened at $1.30 and have traded up to $1.52. If you haven’t locked in profits on half the trade, do so now. We will set a stop limit order at $1.15 on the other half of the trade to protect profits if shares slip from here.
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9:00am (continued…)
The Dow fell 2 points, or 0.01%, to finish at 15,371. The blue-chips traded to a low of 15,229 but fresh support and prior resistance at 15,200 held up. The rebound was impressive as the index made a 3-point gain to 15,376 into the close before ending in the red. The bulls will be trying to make a run at 15,500-15,600 ahead of the weekend while the bears need a 300-point shaving just to get back to even for the week.
The S&P 500 gained 11 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 1,733. We said a move past 1,725 could push new highs up to 1,750 as the index went out near its peak. A 1% move would trigger our fluff target before a possible pullback but momentum could get 1,775-1,800 in play. A close back below 1,725 and then 1,710 could signal a near-term top is in.
The Nasdaq jumped 23 points, or 0.6%, to close at 3,863. We said a pop past 3,825 could get 3,850-3,875 in the mix and we have mentioned there is a chance at 4,000 by yearend. A close back below 3,825-3,800 would be bearish.
The Russell 2000 surged nearly 10 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 1,102. The small-caps triggered our 1,100 target and could make a run to 1,115-1,125 if momentum sticks. A close back below 1,075 would help the bears.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.48, down 1.23) flopped another 8% and we said there was a good chance the bulls push 13.50 once they got the VIX back below 15. We didn’t think they would do it in a day or the following session. The 52-week low is at 11.05 and could be tested. We wouldn’t rule out a test to single-digits but we need to look at the charts this weekend before making that call.
Futures are showing a higher open and look like this as we head towards the bell: Dow (+30); S&P 500 (+5); Nasdaq 100 (+17).
We have a ton to cover this morning, including an earnings trade that could open for a double. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
MEMBERS AREA
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any tradesor “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “New Trade” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames. Closed Trades for 2013: 115-55 – the Weekly Wrap is 38-3 for 2013 (82-5 since 2011) and is designed for traders that want to use options with less risk.
General Electric (GE, $24.68, up $0.32)
November 24 calls (GE131116C00024000, $0.85, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (10/17/13)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 21%
Stop Target: 45 cents
Action: Shares are up 67 cents to $25.35 in pre-market action. If the options reach $1.20 or better, close HALF of the trade. We will send out a Trade Alert if triggered. Otherwise, we will update the trade iin our midday report.
H&R Block (HRB, $29.08, up $0.22)
November 29 calls (HRB131116C00029000, $0.90, flat)
Entry Price: $0.45 (10/15/13)
Exit Target: $0.90
Return: 100%
Stop Target: 45 cents
Action: We wanted to see $28.50 hold and yesterday’s close above $29 was a bonus. We are expecting a run past $30 over the next week or 2. Support is at $26.
Opko Health (OPK, $12.35, up $0.08)
November 11 calls (OPK131116C00011000, $1.65, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.45 (10/14/13)
Exit Target: $1.00 (closed half at $1.05 on 10/15/2013)
Return: 200%
Stop Target: $1.40 (Stop Limit)
December 12 calls (OPK131221C00012000, $1.50, flat)
Entry Price: $0.40 (10/14/13)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed half at $0.90 on 10/15/2013)
Return: 200%
Stop Target: $1.10 (Stop Limit)
Action: Resistance is at $12.50-$13. Support is at $12-$11.75.
Aruba Networks (ARUN, $18.57, down $0.11)
November 20 calls (ARUN131116C00020000, $0.35, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/11/13)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return: -56%
Stop Target: None
Action: A move past $20 should get $22 in play. Support is at $18.
MGM Resorts International (MGM, $20.78, up $0.09)
November 21 calls (MGM131116C00021000, $0.80, flat)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/7/13)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We believe shares can make a run past $22-$23 by mid-November. Support is at $20 with risk down to $19.50. Earnings are due out on October 28.
Safeway (SWY, $33.38, up $0.30)
November 34 calls (SWY131116C00034000, $0.80, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.80 (10/2/13)
Exit Target: $1.60 (closed a quarter at $1.10 on 10/11/2013)
Return: 9%
Stop Target: None
Action: We are expected a run to $35 as long as support holds at $32.
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG, $12.86, down $0.01)
November 13 calls (KOG131116C00013000, $0.70, down $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.50 (10/1/13)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: 40%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares reached another 52-week high of $13.11 yesterday before pulling back. We have said shares could trade to $15 if momentum returns and $13 is cleared.We like this trade as long as $11 holds.
Other 2013 Portfolio OPEN positions (6): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2013Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
These options come off the board today as we ran out of time.
Sony October 25 calls (from July 2013) –HOLD
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers October 35 puts (from August 2013)– HOLD
eBay October 45 puts (from September 2013)Earnings 10/16–HOLD
Microsoft October 30 puts (from September 2013)Earnings 10/24–HOLD
Jabil Circuit October 25 calls (from September 2013) – HOLD
Skyworks Solutions October 26 calls (from September 2013) – Bid/ Ask 5/15 cents
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX, $11.59, up $1.10)
November 12 calls (KERX131116C00012000, $1.30, up $0.50)
November 13 calls (KERX131116C00013000, $0.90, up $0.35)
Thoughts: Shares touched $11.79 and another 52-week high following yesterday’s 10% pop.
Spider Gold Shares (GLD, $127.42, up $3.88)
November 120 puts (GLD131116P00120000, $0.80, down $1.00)
Thoughts: We will talk about Gold this weekend and we have said it could test $1,100 this year. If so, the Spiders could fall below $115.
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ, $48.20, down $0.15)
November 49 calls (DXJ131116C00049000, $0.75, down $0.30)
January 53 calls (DXJ140118C00053000, $0.50, down $0.15)
Thoughts: This ETF could be setting up for a run past $50.
3D Systems (DDD, $56.76, up $1.51)
November 55 calls (DDD131116C00055000, $4.50, up $0.70)
Thoughts: The close above $55 gets $60 in the mix. Support is at $53.50 and a close below $50 would signal a possible short opportunity.
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM, $109.44, up $0.95)
November 110 calls (IWM131116C00110000, $1.50, up $0.30)
November 101 puts (IWM131116P00101000, $0.30, down $0.20)
Thoughts: We could go long on a pop above $108 or short on a close below $105.
Spiders Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA, $153.48, down $0.04)
November 155 calls (DIA131116C00155000, $1.00, down $0.10)
November 145 puts (DIA131116P00145000, $0.60, flat)
Thoughts: We could go long on a move above $153, or short on a drop below $151.
Salesforce.com (CRM, $53.01, up $0.43)
November 55 calls (CRM131116C00055000, $1.00, flat)
Thoughts:We believe shares will make a run past $55 as long as $50 holds.
Intel (INTC, $23.92, up $0.23)
November 23 calls (INTC131116C00023000, $1.05, up $0.05)
January 24 calls (2014) (INTC140118C00024000, $0.85, up $0.05)
November 24 calls (INTC131116C00024000, $0.50, up $0.05)
Thoughts: These options are a cheap way to play a 5%-7% move in the stock. Analysts are bearish on the stock but we like Intel for the long-term.