MEMBERS AREA
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames. Closed Trades for 2012 (131-43, or 75% win rate, including Weekly Wrap which is 24-0).
1:00pm (EST)
JC Penney (JCP, $24.12, up $0.56)
November 22 puts (JCP121117P00022000, $0.95, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.95 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.90
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We are expecting resistance to hold at $25, again.
First Solar (FSLR, $22.20, down $0.68)
October 20 puts (FSLR121020P00020000, $0.60, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.85 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return: -29%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $22 today.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $62.59, up $0.51)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $0.50, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return: -60%
Stop Target: None
Action: Resistance is at $63. We would like to see a drop below $60 this week which would get the 50-day MA in play. A move below this level could lead to double-nickels if $58 fails to hold.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $85.73, up $0.44)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.10, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.20
Return: -12%
Stop Target: None
Action: Resistance is at $87. We are looking for a drop down to $82 this week which should get $80 and the MA’s in play.
TiVo (TIVO, $10.50, down $0.02)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.85, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 21%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see $10.50 hold today..
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $47.50, down $0.05)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: -36%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares could test the low $40’s on a break below $46. Resistance is at $50. These options have less than 3 weeks before they expire so we need to see a continued breakdown this week.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $38.69, up $0.26)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.45, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -50%
Stop Target: None
Action: Resistance has been a brick wall at $39 but if shares can clear $40, it’s off to the races. Yesterday’s high was $38.79.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $15.98, down $0.02)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $1.05, flat)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed HALF at 80 cents on 9/28/12)
Return: 106%
Stop Target: 70 cents (HARD STOP)
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $1.50, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 67%
Stop Target: $1.00 (HARD STOP)
Action: We still see more strength ahead and the 52-week high is just up ahead at $16.15. Our year-end target is calling for a test to $20.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.30, up $0.10)
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.55, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -21%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Support has been strong at $11 and we are looking for a bounce off the lows by the end of the week.
Knight Capital Group (KCG, $2.71, flat)
January 2.50 calls (2013) (KCG130119C00002500, $0.40, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (8/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -27%
Stop Target: (None)
Action: There is still risk down to $2 but shares may have bottomed after testing $2.34 last week. Shares were near $2.80 when we entered this trade back in August after tumbling from $10 to $2.50 in late July on the company’s trading fiasco. We think a buyout offer north of $5 could be in the cards by yearend.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo GroupOctober 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
eBay October 52.50 calls (from September 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
We will update this section in the morning.