9:00an (EST)
JC Penney (JCP, $23.89, up $0.33)
November 22 puts (JCP121117P00022000, $1.00, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.95 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.90
Return: 5%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded to a high of $24.32 and never really challenged resistance which is at $25. Tuesday’s low was $23.20 so we would at least like to see a close below this level by the weekend.
First Solar (FSLR, $22.00, down $0.88)
October 20 puts (FSLR121020P00020000, $0.70, up $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.85 (9/28/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return: -18%
Stop Target: None
Action: First Solar traded down to $21.80 and we were looking for a finish below $22. Close enough. We would like to see a continued push lower and a move back below $21.50 should get $20 in play again. Resistance is at $24.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF, $62.35, up $0.27)
October 60 puts (TIF121020P00060000, $0.60, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return: -52%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares reached $63.27 before finishing the session slightly positive. We would like to see a drop below $60 this week which would get the 50-day MA in play. A move below this level could lead to double-nickels if $58 fails to hold.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $85.59, up $0.30)
November 70 puts (BWLD121117P00070000, $1.10, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.25 (9/26/12)
Exit Target: $2.20
Return: -12%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares reached $85.99 and resistance is at $87. We would like to see a close below $83.50 by Friday.
TiVo (TIVO, $10.36, down $0.16)
November 10 calls (TIVO121117C00010000, $0.75, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: 7%
Stop Target: None
Action: We were a little disappointed $10.50 failed to hold which could lead to a test back down to $10.
KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $47.18, down $0.37)
October 45 puts (KLAC121020P00045000, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.55 (9/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: -36%
Stop Target: None
Action: We would like to see a close below $46.25 today which should get the ball rolling on another pullback. Resistance is at $50.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $39.04 up $0.81)
October 40 calls (AKAM121020C00040000, $0.60, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
Action: Akamai finally closed above $39 for the first time since we recommended the trade. Shares were just below this level when we went long and traded to a 52-week high of $39.67 the day before. We have said a move above $40 could be explosive so let’s hope this level trips today so that we can get out of this trade with a profit.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $16.05, up $0.05)
October 15 calls (TSM121020C00015000, $1.10, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.45 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed HALF at 80 cents on 9/28/12)
Return: 111%
Stop Target: 70 cents, raise to 80 cents (HARD STOP)
January 15 calls (TSM130119C00015000, $1.50, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (9/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 67%
Stop Target: $1.00, raise to $1.30 (HARD STOP)
Action: Shares traded lower for much of Wednesday before rebounding in the final hour to flip a profit. We have raised the Hard Stop on the October 15 calls to 80 cents which was yesterday’s low. We have raised the Hard Stop to $1.35 on the January 15 calls which is just below yesterday’s print of $1.30.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.12, down $0.08
December 12.50 calls (SZYM121222C00012500, $0.55, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (9/5/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -21%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares traded to a low of $10.97 but held short-term support at $11. A close below this level gets $10 in the mix.
Knight Capital Group(KCG, $2.68, down $0.03)
January 2.50 calls (2013) (KCG130119C00002500, $0.40, flat)
Entry Price: $0.70 (8/21/12)
Exit Target: $1.40
Return: -27%
Stop Target: 50 cents, lower to No Stop
Action: There is still risk down to $2 but shares may have bottomed after testing $2.34 last week. Shares were near $2.80 when we entered this trade back in August after tumbling from $10 to $2.50 in late July on the company’s trading fiasco. We think a buyout offer north of $5 could be in the cards by yearend.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
Apollo GroupOctober 24 puts (from August 2012)
Pepsico October 75 calls (from August 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls (2013) (from March 2012)
eBay October 52.50 calls (from September 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off but these are the trades we are watching as new candidates.
LinkedIn (LNKD, $121.68, up $2.91)
November 95 puts (LNKD121117P00095000, $1.05, down $0.35)
Thoughts: We recommended LinkedIn puts back in April when shares were at trading just above $100. The options made 67% when shares fell to the mid-$90’s and we decided to get out. We would like to see a test back to $125 before possibly going short.
American Express (AXP, $57.40, up $0.42)
November 60 calls (AXP121117C00060000, $0.55, up $0.05)
October 60 calls (AXP121020C00060000, $0.20, up $0.05)
Thoughts: This is our favorite Financial stock and the 52-week high is north of $60. We recommended AXP earlier this year when shares were challenging 52-week highs and the calls were up a whopping 475% in just over 2 weeks. The October calls are “cheap” out-of-the-money options that could double or triple if shares push $60 over the next few weeks but the November’s are the safer play.
Caterpillar (CAT, $85.28, down $0.19)
October 82.50 puts (CAT121020P00082500, $0.85, down $0.10)
November 80 puts (CAT121117P00080000, $1.60, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We might go with one of these put options if shares fall below $85.
Coinstar (CSTR, $45.68, up $0.69)
November 40 puts (CSTR121117P00040000, $1.35, down $0.15)
Thoughts: Resistance at $45 is trying to stick.
Fossil (FOSL, $85.24, down $1.33)
October 75 puts (FOSL121020P00075000, $0.50, flat)
December 55 puts (121222P00055000, $0.60, up $0.10)
Thoughts: We have a near-term target of $80 which would likely trip on a move back below $85 and a 6-12 month target of $40 if shares fall below $60.
Monster Beverage (MNST, $54.38, down $0.31)
November 50 puts (MNST121117P00050000, $1.70, flat)
Thoughts: We have a feeling shares are going to test $50 again and a break below this level should lead to a quick trip to $45. Resistance at $55 is trying to hold which was prior support.