Momentum Trades

Opening Pop Fades but Bulls Keep Pushing

1:00pm (EST)

The pattern for the market this week has played out much the same way today. 

Futures have been weak before the overseas markets open then start to rebound ahead of the opening bell here at home.  The bulls have been pushing resistance at the open but the rallies have been fading with the bears taking over in the second half of trading.  Today could be different as the bulls look to hold their gains. 

This morning, futures were slightly higher but got a boost after better-than-expected economic news.  The ADP Employment Change report showed the private sector added 162,000 in September which was ahead of expectations for 152,000.  However, the prior 2 months of job growth was revised lower by 29,000.  Elsewhere, ISM Services came in at 55.1% versus forecasts for a repeat of the prior month figure of 53.7%. 

Shares of Family Dollar Stores (FDO, $68.33, up $2.33) are up nearly 4% after reporting earnings before the bell this morning.  The company said profits came in at $81 million, or $0.69 a share, versus last year’s numbers of $80 million, or $0.66 a share.  Revenue came in at $2.36 billion. 

The suit-and-ties were expecting 75 cents a share on sales of $2.37 billion.  The company would have matched per share estimates but took a hit on settlement charges. Sales were also short of expectations.   

The stock is down from its 52-week peak of $74.73 which was hit in mid-June but, despite the miss, shares have been in an uptrend since bottoming at $62-$63 last month. 

Marriott International (MAR, $38.88 up $0.25) will announce their numbers after the close.  There is grapevine talk they will miss their numbers and an analyst recently downgraded the stock.  With shares near their 52-week high just north of $40, there is also the chance $42 gets challenged if they beat Wall Street’s expectations.

There are 24 analysts who follow the stock and on average they are looking for 40 cents a share.  The high estimate calls for 42 cents a share while the low is 37 cents.  Revenue is expected to decline 8% to $2.65 billion.  We profiled an earnings trade this morning and we think we have this one pegged but we will likely sit on the sidelines.

As far as the rest of the week goes, International Speedway (ISCA, $28.54, up $0.20) will report their numbers tomorrow while Constellation Brands (STZ, $34.47, up $1.06) will announce their results on Friday.  Shares of STZ have been on fire of late and we have played this name in the past.   

We have a lot to cover with our current trades so let’s go see where we are at.  As we turn the corner, the Dow is up 44 points to 13,526 while the S&P 500 is higher by 7 points to 1,452.  The Nasdaq is showing a gain of 18 points to 3,138.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.

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