11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. OraSure Technologies (OSUR) Still Looks Risky
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We have a ton of charts to go over so please look at them to get the clues on where this market is headed. Also, we are running a little late so please give us about an hour to get the charts loaded to the site.)
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1. Market Summary
“We came into the week with the market showing a 4% gain for September and we said the indexes were 2%-3% away from our “fluff” targets. With one week left, we were looking for the bulls to get to within 1% of our fluff targets for the month and with October just around the corner the task just got a little harder but still doable.
There could be a flood of “window dressing” to begin the week but the suit-and-ties will need to be careful. We mentioned that many of the pros went on their late August vacations and were hoping for a pullback when they returned but they never got it. The fund managers who are lagging the market are going to feel pressure to push while the ones showing a negative return will likely get fired.
We have been mentioning the start of 3Q earnings season and we can now begin the countdown. Alcoa (AA, $9.13, down $0.12) will announce earnings in 16 days, or October 10. The market will be closed on October 8 for Columbus Day.
We have already seen a number of high profile earnings warnings so next week will be the week even more companies could start confessing their sins. Next week is also the last week the suit-and-ties can add positions for the quarter, or sell. We have said many of the pros are way behind the market’s returns and they will have a hard time explaining to their clients they didn’t make them any money this year with Tech up 20%.
Of course, you are considered a Wall Street whiz if you can make your clients 8%-10% a year. Although we love our brothers and sisters who play the game with us, we like to shoot for 100% returns a year for our subscribers. We believe we have done that 7x over this year.
Our point is, we do have high expectations for ourselves but making 10% a year is phenomenal in today’s world so we need to remember this if we get into a flat market of there is a pullback.
The only other curveball we see coming could be a Spain bailout but this is already being anticipated and that may or not happen this week. Last week may have been dull and many of the pros are calling for a pullback. There is an old saying that says “never short a dull market” and the bears a few layers of support to crack before they get on track.
We do need to respect the possibility of a pullback because the warning signs are there but all signs are pointing towards a push to new 52-week highs.” (from 9/23/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bears started the week of with another win which marked 16-out-of-17 sessions in which the market has started the week lower. The selling pressure picked up on Tuesday on Spain’s impending bailout which caused protests over further austerity measures. It was Greece all over again and it could get worse. The pullback was enough to crack the first wave of support.
The bulls tried to rebound on Wednesday on better-than-expected Housing numbers but prior support quickly became resistance as the market ended lower. We expected some window-dressing to come in on Thursday and once word spread that Spain had announced a detailed timetable for economic reform, the bulls rallied. The indexes fell just short of reclaiming support going into Friday’s action which proved to be resistance.
The Dow fell 49 points, or 0.4%, to end at 13,437 on Friday. The blue-chips traded to a low of 13,367 and we warned of a dip to 13,350 once 13,500 cracked. The next level of support comes in at 13,200 and then the all important 13,000 level. The bulls will need to clear 13,500, first, and then 13,600 which has been a brick wall. The index missed testing our fluff targets of 13,800-14,000 but they are still in the mix if the bulls rebound. The Dow came into the week at 13,579 and lost 142 points, or 1.1%, by Friday’s close. For 2012, the blue-chips are higher by 1,220 points, or 10%.
The S&P 500 dropped 6 points and finished at 1,440. The index held 1,450 to start the week but Tuesday’s pullback to 1,441 got 1,425 in the mix. The S&P kissed a low of 1,430 on Wednesday which was the low for the week. A break below 1,425 gets the psychological 1,400 level back in play. A pop back above 1,450 get 1,475-1,500 back into the picture which were our fluff targets for September had the rally remained strong. The high of 1,474.51 came mid-month. The S&P 500 started Monday at 1,460 and was down 20 points, or 1.3%, for the week. For the year, the index is up 178 points, or 14.6%.
The Nasdaq declined 20 points, or 0.7%, to close at 3,116. Tech came into the week looking to clear our upend targets of 3,200-3,250 but ran started the week off in the red. The bulls needed to hold 3,100 or they faced further pressure down to 3,050 and this level was tested on Tuesday’s close of 3,117. The Nasdaq closed below 3,100 on Tuesday to 3,093 after testing 3,080 during the session. The bulls reclaimed support by Thursday and it held on Friday but any further weakness could lead to a test down to 3,000 coming into October. The Nasdaq started Monday at 3,179 and ended the week down 63 points, or 2%. YTD, the index is showing a gain of 507 points, or 19.6%.
The Russell 2000 gave back a 6-pack, or 0.7%, on Friday and went out at 837. Short-term support had been steady at 850 but the dip to 849 to start the week was a warning sign. The small-caps closed at 839 the following session and tested 831 on Wednesday. There is still risk down to 820 but a break below this level would get 800 back on the bears map. Our 900 fluff target would have triggered if the bulls cleared 875 in September but the best they could do was 868 mid-month. The Russell 2000 began the week at 855 and was down 18 points, or 2.1%, following Friday’s close. For 2012, the index has advanced 97 points, or 13%.
The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.73, up 0.89) popped 6% on Friday after coming into the week at 13.98. The VIX touched a high of 15.06 to start the week as the bears let the bulls know they were ready to play. The index reached a peak of 17.08 on Wednesday and before Thursday’s rally which saw the VIX close back below 15. We mentioned last week Wall Street wouldn’t get nervous until 20 triggers and if Monday is a negative day, this level could get here quickly. A move past 17.50 would be confirmation as you can see from the chart below.
Although the bulls slipped again last week, September was a month to remember as the market rallied 4%, on average. The indexes failed to make a run at our fluff targets but came close. If there is a pullback or correction, these fluff targets could become year end targets depending on how much damage the bears do.
For the month, the Dow was up 347 points or 2.6% while the S&P 500 gained 34 points, or 2.4%. The Nasdaq popped 50 points higher, or 1.6%. For the third quarter, the Dow was up 4.3%, the S&P 500 was higher by 5.8%. The Nasdaq popped 6.2% for 3Q.
We warned on Tuesday that the market had its first Friday/ Monday negative close in 6 weeks and Friday’s drop is cause for concern. The trading range over the summer provided up and down Friday and Monday’s which is typical but if we get a lower Monday a trend change could be coming.
We have one more week before earnings season starts and the laundry list of companies that have already pre-warned include: Caterpillar (CAT, $86.04, down $0.88), Dow Chemical (DOW, $28.96, down $0.20), FedEx (FDX, $84.62, down $1.15), Ford (F, $9.86, down $0.16), Procter & Gamble (PG, $69.36, up $0.06), Norfolk Southern (NSC, $63.63, down $0.55) and U.S. Steel (X, $19.07, down $0.24).
Perhaps the bar has been lowered enough, again, that the companies that do beat estimates could prop the market up in October. Our feeling is there could be a slew of companies that miss by a penny or two which is why they didn’t warn Wall Street. If it’s more than that, the market could take a serious hit. Alcoa (AA, $8.86, down $0.13) will be the first Dow component to announce and they will confess on October 9. If shares are up this week, they could have a good quarter in store. If shares trade lower, it could be a warning sign.
October has a history of famous stock market “crashes” so we did some research over the weekend. Believe it or not, September is technically the worst month for stocks but October is more remembered because of scary Halloween’s and the “Black” days.
There are a few investors who may remember the first stock market crash back in 1929 and we were just a teenager when the market tanked in the 80’s which gave us an early lesson in life. The message was not to ever take the market for granted because in one day things can go south in a hurry. It is why we have always respected the bears and why we learned how to short stocks and how to use put options before we ever invested.
In 1929, the Dow dropped 11% intraday on October 24 falling from 305 the previous day before recovering to end the session down only 2%. The day was labeled “Black Thursday”. Four days later, “Black Tuesday” marked the start of the Great Depression as the Dow dropped 11% from a previous close of 260 to 230.
These two days were significant as the Dow tanked 25% in four days following Black Tuesday and 90% in 3 years after Black Thursday occurred.
In 1987, we remember October 19 which would become known as “Black Monday”. The Dow was at 2,246 and plummeted nearly 23%, or 508 points, to end the session at 1,738. Many investors took a tremendous hit to their 401K and retirement plans.
We were a teenager in the 1980’s and just getting our feet wet in the market. Although we personally didn’t take a hit because we weren’t in the market in 1987, it taught us a very valuable lesson and that was to respect the bears. It is also why we learned how to short the market and buy put options which served us well before the crash of 2000.
We aren’t ready to go on record to say there will be a “correction” or a crash this month but we have experienced several October storm clouds over the past 25 years and we typically LOVE them. If there is panic, and the market does start to drop like a rock, buying puts will be very lucrative.
We aren’t sure what the Vegas odds would be on a correction but with so many fundamentals looking bearish, it is something to think about. We have defined clear support and resistance targets so if there is a breakdown or breakout, we should get a few warnings signs.
As we head to press, futures are showing a slightly lower open for Monday. Dow futures are down 29 points to 13,358 while the S&P 500 futures are lower by 5 points to 1,428. The Nasdaq 100 futures are off by 10 points to 2,782.
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Key of Technicals Used In Following Articles
2. OraSure Technologies (OSUR) Still Looks Risky
By Michael Bryant
OraSure Technologies (OSUR, $11.11, up $0.40) has been making headlines lately but is this small-cap a buy?
OraSure’s products are separated into two segments: OraSure and DNAG. The OraSure segment can be further broken down into: Infectious disease testing, substance abuse testing, cryosurgical systems, and insurance risk assessment.
DNAG consists of toxicology/forensics sales. The MICRO-PLATE & AUTO-LYTE Technology can be also used in this field.
Domestic OraQuick HIV sales decreased 16% to $8.4 million for the three months ended June 30th. The decrease in domestic sales was partly due to reductions in government funding and price competition. International sales increased by 4% to $744,000, largely due to higher sales to Africa in the 2nd quarter. This trend may continue into the 3rd quarter given the deficit reductions.
On July 3rd, the FDA approved OraQuick In-Home HIV Test which is the first rapid diagnostic test for any infectious disease that has been approved by the FDA for sale over the counter. Shares shot up to $13.36. Then on July 10th, it sold 6,100,000 shares, or $75 million, of its common stock at a price of $12.30 per share in a secondary offering.
President and Chief Executive Officer Mr. Douglas Michels has been doing a lot of promoting lately. On September 12th, he spoke at ThinkEquity’s Ninth Annual Growth Conference in New York City. Then on September 19th, he spoke at UBS Global Life Sciences Conference in New York City.
He has stated that the company’s products will be in 30,000 stores as well as available online and that response from retailers about the products have been very positive. He pointed out that about 1.2 million people in the United States are infected with HIV. He also commented the Hepatitis C market is much bigger, with about four to five million people infected in the United States. The company targets both markets.
Looking at the past revenue breakdown, the only segments that took a jump in sales is the insurance and DNAG segments (orange line). However, the cryosurgical systems segment (green line) seems to be picking up.
Some additional headwinds the company faces include its revenue exposure to Europe. The table below shows the distribution of revenue among geographic regions. Numbers are in millions of dollars.
|
|
United States |
Europe |
Other |
|
1st quarter 2010 |
$14.869 (82.854%) |
$1.342 (7.478%) |
$1.735 (9.668%) |
|
2nd quarter 2010 |
$16.457 (85.633%) |
$1.852 (9.637%) |
$0.909 (4.730%) |
|
3rd quarter 2010 |
$16.398 (86.192%) |
$1.589 (8.352%) |
$1.038 (5.456%) |
|
4th quarter 2010 |
$15.796 (83.905%) |
$1.710 (9.083%) |
$1.320 (7.012%) |
|
1st quarter 2011 |
$14.239 (81.768%) |
$1.986 (11.405%) |
$1.189 (6.828%) |
|
2nd quarter 2011 |
$16.341 (85.717%) |
$1.293 (6.782%) |
$1.430 (7.501%) |
|
3rd quarter 2011 |
$17.571 (80.920%) |
$2.302 (10.601%) |
$1.841 (8.478%) |
|
4th quarter 2011 |
$19.493 (82.287%) |
$1.925 (8.126%) |
$2.271 (9.587%) |
|
1st quarter 2012 |
$15.636 (74.656%) |
$2.798 (13.359%) |
$2.510 (11.984%) |
|
2nd quarter 2012 |
$16.895 (74.704%) |
$2.732 (12.080%) |
$2.989 (13.216%) |
The bulk of revenue comes from the United States, on a percentage basis, but that number has declined from 82% to 74% in the last two quarters. Revenue from Europe has increased. However, a deepening crisis in Europe might hurt total revenue in the future. One bright spot is that revenue outside Europe and the United States has been rising 1% – 2% each quarter over the last six quarters.
While revenue has been slowly creeping up, total expenses remain greater than revenue. Plus, the loss (difference between revenue and total expenses) has increased over the last two quarters, and at a faster pace than the previous year. Earnings also show that the company will probably not become profitable within the next year. A big concern is that year-over-year quarterly earnings have been on the decline in every quarter except the 4th quarter.
Good news is that year-over-year revenue increased at the same pace in both the 1st and the 2nd quarters from 2011 to 2012. Further, if the trend continues, the company could likely beat 3rd quarter revenue estimates. Plus, some analysts see revenue rising in the 3rd and 4th quarters and to its credit, the company has met or beat earnings estimates every quarter in the last two years.
OraSure reported 2nd quarter earnings on Sunday, August 12th. It lost $0.07 per share on $22.61 million in revenue. It reports 3rd quarter earnings after the market close Wednesday, October 31st. Analysts expect a 3rd quarter loss of $0.07 per share on revenue of $22.26 million.
Insider trading is -19.07%, which is a big negative. Further, insiders only hold 1.54% of the outstanding shares, not a good sign. On the plus side, institutions hold 73.73% of the outstanding shares. Cash is $23 million while debt is only $7 million and short sellers seem to be covering.
At $11.11, the stock is below its low target of $12.50 made by the 7 analysts recorded by Thomson/First Call. Mean target is $14.07, median target is $14.00, and high target is $17.00. Using a scale of 1.0 as a strong buy and 5.0 as a sell, the average rating of the stock was 1.1, unchanged from a week ago.
|
|
Current Month |
Last Month |
Two Months Ago |
Three Months Ago |
|
Strong Buy |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
|
Buy |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Hold |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
Underperform |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Sell |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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3. Earnings
The companies in BOLD, we are looking at as possible trades and we may list call or put options on them in our Daily Newsletter. If they become official recommendations, we sent out Trade Alerts or include them in our 9am and 1pm updates that come out during the week (Quotes are from 9/28/12 close)
Monday
ACNB (ACNB, $15.99, up $0.19), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM, $44.94, up $0.36), China Natural Resources (CHNR, $6.30, down $0.24), Daxor (DXR, $8.28, Flat), Electro Rent (ELRC, $17.69, down $0.29), Erickson Air-Crane (EAC, $7.31, down $0.04), Ferrellgas (FGP, $19.40, up $0.18), Home Loan Servicing (HLSS, $16.28, down $0.04), Marine Petroleum Trust (MARPS, $21.76, down $0.47), Robbins & Myers (RBN, $59.60, Flat), Skyline (SKY, $5.48, up $0.34), Team (TISI, $31.85, down $0.07)
Tuesday
Acuity Brands (AYI, $63.29, down $0.14), Mosaic (MOS, $57.61, down $0.04), Resources Connection (RECN, $13.15, down $0.31), Sycamore Networks (SCMR, $15.40, down $0.08), Xyratex (XRTX, $9.17, down $0.08)
Wednesday
Family Dollar Stores (FDO, $66.30, up $0.81), Marriott International (MAR, $39.10, down $0.48), National American University (NAUH, $5.00, Flat), RPM (RPM, $28.54, down $0.36)
Thursday
Gladstone Capital (GLADP, $25.37, down $0.20), Gladstone Investment (GAIN, $7.82, down $0.16), International Speedway (ISCA, $28.37, down $0.27), Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF, $12.66, up $0.11)
Friday
Constellation Brands (STZ, $32.35, down $0.25), JW Mays (MAYS, $20.99, Flat), TripAdvisor (TRIP, $32.93, down $0.49)
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4. Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio Update (Closing prices as of 9/28/12)
Closed Trades for 2012 (24-0, overall): ARNA +117%, SZYM +11%, BAC +26%, EFTC +8%, SZYM +55%, VVUS +38%, CALL +19%, BAC +20%, SYMC +16%, DAR +20%,TIVO +5%, MGM +22%, ZNGA+13%, SGMS +6%, VVUS +17%, F +8%, AA +7%, CLNE +27%, DNDN +18%, MGM +19%, ACAS +3%, P +9%, BAC +6%, AA +3%.
TiVo (TIVO, $10.43, up $0.11)
October 10 calls (TIVO121020C00010000, $0.60, up $0.05)
Original Entry Price: $9.65 (9/19/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $9.17
Exit Target: $12+
Return: 14%
Stop Target: $7
Action: Shares traded past $10 to start the week after Verizon (VZ, $45.57, down $0.19) settled a patent litigation lawsuit for $250 million. TiVo will get $100 million upfront and another $150 million in recurring quarterly payments through July 2018. Earlier this year, AT&T (T, $37.70, down $0.29) settled with TiVo for $215 million and we expect there will be other companies that will want to settle.
TiVo traded up to $10.45 twice last week and you can see resistance at $10.50 on the chart is strong. A move above this level should lead to a run at $11-$11.50. Support should hold at $10 on a pullback which was prior resistance.
We recommended buying the stock at $9.65 on 9/19/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the October 10 call for 48 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $9.17.
If shares are called away in mid-October at $10 the trade will make 9%.
Solazyme (SZYM, $11.49, down $0.20)
Original Entry Price: $12.35 (8/9/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $11.55
Exit Target: $15+
Return: -1%
Stop Target: $9
Action: Shares cleared $12 to begin the week but traded to a low of $11.29 on Tuesday. The current range is due for a breakout (or breakdown) soon. Support has been solid at $11 with backup at $10. A move above the 100-day and 200-day MA’s would be bullish and could lead to a test of $12.50. We may sell the November 12.50 calls (SZYM121117C00012500, $0.30, down $0.05) this week if shares can clear $12 on the close.
We recommended buying the stock at $12.35 on 8/9/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the September 12.50 calls for 80 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $11.55.
Vivus (VVUS, $17.81, down $0.01)
Original Entry Price: $22.70 (7/27/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $21.35
Exit Target: $30+
Return: -17%
Stop Target: $15
Action: Vivus continued its pullback and we mentioned a drop below $20 could lead to $18. As you can see from the 3-year chart, the close below the 50-day MA was bearish and could lead to a trip down to $14-$12. We will have to wait for resistance to clear at $20 before writing another call option. We said we don’t mind holding Vivus into 2013 and beyond because we have a $50 price target. However, that would change if shares did fall to the low teens as we would have to reevaluate the position.
We recommended buying the stock at $22.70 on 7/27/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the August 24 calls for 95 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $21.75.
On 9/6/12 we sold the September 24 calls for 40 cents which lowered our cost basis to $21.35.
Antares Pharma (ATRS, $4.36, down $0.09)
November 5 calls (ATRS121117C00005000, $0.30, down $0.05)
Original Entry Price: $4.94 (7/13/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $3.94
Exit Target: $8+
Return: 11%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares hit a high of $4.73 on Tuesday but were only up 3 cents for the week. We said last week a move past $5 could come if $4.75 were cleared on the close and that is still the case. A move below $4.20 could get $4 in play again which should serve as support and was prior resistance.
We recommended buying the stock at $4.94 on 7/13/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the August 5 calls for 70 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $4.24.
On 9/6/12 we sold the November 5 calls for 30 cents which lowered our cost basis to $3.94. If we are called away at $5 in mid-November the trade will make 27%. .
Antares Pharma (ATRS, $4.36, down $0.09)
February (2013) 7.50 calls (ATRS130216C0007500, $0.30, flat)
Original Entry Price: $0.80 (7/13/12)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return: -63%
Stop Target: None
Action: This is a LEAP call option which has nearly 6 months before expiration. We have a target of $8-$10 for the stock which is a strong takeover candidate.
Pizza Inn (PZZI, $2.92, down $0.03)
Original Entry Price: $4.50 (2/22/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: No options available
Exit Target: $9
Return: -35%
Stop Target: None
Action: The company reported earnings last week that were a little disappointing to Wall Street but not to us. They lost a penny a share but opened 5 restaurants for the quarter. There will be some growing pains with Pizza Inn but their expansion will take 1-3 years so we don’t mind holding the stock as we have a longer-term target of $10. Shares traded to a low of $2.75 last week and there is still risk down to $2.40-$2.20 if they struggle to regain $3.
Pizza Inn continues to open new pie shops in Texas. The company’s latest restaurant on the University of Texas campus was its seventh location with an eighth planned in Allen, Texas.
The company recently won the prestigious 2012 Hot Concepts award from the Nation’s Restaurant News and the buzz is growing. The company is targeting 75 major cities to expand and some will be company owned or franchised. Insiders are buying shares at these low levels and we feel you should be loading up too while they are still under $4. We have a 12 to 18-month price target of $10 for Pizza Inn.
MGM Resorts (MGM, $10.75, down $0.13)
Original Entry Price: $13.77 (2/2/12)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $12.67
Exit Target: $15
Return: -15%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares reached a low of $10.28 midweek but bounced back to trade over $11 on Thursday. Support is moving up at $10.25 and there is further help at $10. We would like to see $11.75 tested over the near-term and we will look to sell another option once shares clear $12 again.
We recommended buying the stock at $13.77 on 2/2/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the March 15 calls for 45 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $13.32.
On 3/20/12 we recommended selling the April 14 calls for $0.65 which lowered the cost basis to $12.67.
Newpark Resources (NR, $7.41, flat)
Original Entry Price: $9.45 (7/27/11)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $7.85
Exit Target: $11
Return: -6%
Stop Target: None
Action: Newpark fell to $7.14 on Wednesday and lost 25 cents for the week. A break below support at $7 could lead to $6.50. We would like to see a move back towards $8 this week.
We recommended buying the stock at $9.45 on 7/27/2011 and for every 100 shares to sell the August 10 calls for 50 cents. This lowered the cost basis to $8.95.
On 9/15/2011 we recommended selling the December 10 calls for $0.85 which lowered the cost basis to $8.10.
On 1/25/2012 we recommended selling the March 12.50 calls for $0.25 which lowered the cost basis to $7.85.
Trades on HOLD: DryShips (DRYS, $2.34, down $0.06), AKS Steel Holding (AKS, $4.80, down $0.05), Rare Element Resources (REE, $4.92, up $0.02), Rambus (RMBS, $5.54, up $0.24), Patriot Coal (PCXCQ, $0.12, flat), OCZ Technology Group (OCZ, $3.47, up $0.06), Bebe Stores (BEBE, $4.80, down $0.10), Scientific Games (SGMS, $8.28, up $0.17)
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5. Week Ahead
The ISM Index and Construction Spending numbers will be released on Monday at 10am (EST). Anything over 50 on the ISM will be good news.
Tuesday is rather light with Auto and Truck Sales due out at 2pm.
Wednesday’s action includes the MBA Mortgage Index at 7am and the ADP Employment Change report at 8:15am. After the open, ISM Services figures are due out at 10am followed by Crude Inventories 30 minutes later. The big report will be the FOMC Minutes at 2pm.
The Challenger Jobs Cuts will hit the Street at 7:15am on Thursday followed by Initial and Continuing Claims at 8:30am. Factory Orders hit the Street at 10am.
Friday is a busy day and could be a game changer for either the bulls or bears. Nonfarm Payrolls will be released at 8:30 along with the Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings and the Average Workweek hours. At 3pm, Consumer Credit wraps up the week.