Momentum Trades

MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 5/5/13

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MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 5/5/13

11:30pm (EST)

1.  Market Summary 

2.  Zillow Earnings Due Out This Week

3.  Apple Mini Options Pack a Punch

4.  Earnings

5.  Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update 

6.  Week Ahead

(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section.)

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1.  Market Summary   

The bulls are back at the top of the ranges from March after holding the bottom uptrend lines from the prior week.  Friday’s action was bullish despite the mixed finishes considering the weaker-than-expected GDP numbers and the bounce off the lows.  Amazon.com (AMZN, $254.81, down $19.89) weighed heavy on Tech after giving up 7% and Google (GOOG, $801.42, down $7.68) wasn’t much help either.  The good news is both stocks held near-term support and Apple (AAPL, $417.20, up $8.82) showed some strength after holding $400. 

Trading ranges can be frustrating and we have been warning of one since early April:

From our April 6, 2013 Weekly Wrap:

“The trading ranges since early March have been:  Dow 14,400-14,600 with a breakout to the upside; S&P 1,540-1,560 with a push to all-time highs; Nasdaq 3,200-3,250; and for the Russell – 930-950 but is currently stretched to the downside.  The fact that the market held it March lows is bullish but a break below the February lows would be bearish.  In the meantime, the market remains in a trading range.

We mentioned last week April is the best month for the Dow with average gains of 2% over the past 6 decades and it is also the second best month for the S&P 500.  Although Tech has been weak of late, April has shown strong gains since the 1970’s and is the third best month for the Nasdaq.  There has been a lot of talk that April is the new May but we wouldn’t count the bulls out until the month settles.  However, the market gave mixed signals all week ahead of Friday’s big event and the clues we discussed last week have started to unfold so the bears need to be respected.” (END)

The bulls have trying to make a push out of the current range and this week’s news has the potential to help or hurt them.  There will be a number of unemployment news this week highlighted by Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.  Also in the mix will be the FOMC meeting and a number of ISM announcements, as well as a bevy of other economic reports on tap.  If all goes well, the bulls could push new highs:

From our April 14, 2013 Weekly Wrap:

“If earnings come in better-than-expected and economic news doesn’t disappoint then the indexes should see a continued rally.  If so, the extended targets we could see are: Dow 15,300; S&P 1,625;Nasdaq 3,350.  We will keep our target of 975 for the Russell 2000. 

We must admit even we are surprised by the GAINS the indexes have made for the year but we are not surprised by the rally as we told you it would have legs from December through April.  May might be a different story and there could be some seasonal weakness in late April but until the bottom uptrend lines from the 5-year charts crack, the bulls are in control.” (END)

There has been a lot of talk about the seasonality of May and as we close out April and look into next month we thought it would be worth mentioning the history of May and the market.  The “sell in May and go away” theory has played out well in recent years but historically the month has also been bullish.

From the mid-1960’s through the mid 80’s, the S&P 500 fell 75% of the time, or 15 out of 20 May’s.    However, from 1985 through 1997 May was fantastic with 13-straight bullish closings with gains averaging over 3% per year.  A 3% pop this May would mean new historic highs.

The action since the late 1990’s has been mixed with 7 up May months, and 7 down.  The good news is that post-presidential years have been bullish with Tech leading the way.  The S&P 500 usually has the second best May, followed by the Russell 2000 and then the Dow.

We have been right in calling for an extended market rally and while we have become somewhat nervous trusting the bulls, our extended fluff targets from mid-April will come into play on a 2%-3% push higher.  At some point we do expect a nasty pullback or correction but it might not come until June or July.  There is likely to be some “window-dressing” this week as some fund managers lock in their gains in anticipation of a weaker May but the market still hasn’t experienced the “blow-off” or euphoric top pop that usually accompanies bull markets.  

If Apple, Amazon and Google hold support and make another push higher then we can see Tech leading the way higher in May.  We will also have to see some strength in the Financial stocks and some M&A (merger and acquisition) activity would help keep the uptrend alive.  Meanwhile, if the small-caps start to crack and the VIX rises, be prepared for a pullback to the bottom of the trading range, or worse.”  (from4/28/2013 Weekly Wrap Update)…

The bulls are getting use to Monday’s as they got back-to-back wins to start the past couple of weeks and were able to push fresh highs on the major indexes.  Tuesday’s have been automatic as the Dow traded higher for a 16th-straight time but Wednesday’s retreat erased all of the gains. 

The Fed spooked Wall Street after saying they were prepared to increase or decrease the rate of its $85 billion a month bond purchases to “maintain appropriate policy accommodation.”  The bears took advantage of the confusion to push the indexes to new lows with the small-caps getting hit the hardest but the bulls held support on the 1% pullback.

The momentum returned to the bulls camp on Thursday after European zombies cut their rates by a quarter-point that lead to a complete recovery from the previous day losses going into Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report.

Needless to say, traders were on edge along with the rest of the world as the news hit the Street an hour before the opening bell.  Most of the suit-and-ties were predicting a nasty number but we know from experience when too many people are leaning on the wrong side of a boat, it usually tips over. (read more…)

Members Area

The Dow zoomed 142 points, or 1%, to finish at 14,973 on Friday.  The blue-chips needed to clear 14,800 coming into the week to keep the April rally alive and started with a triple-digit win to clear this level.  The high was 14,844 and the close at 14,818 was bullish for another possible run at 15,000.  Tuesday’s close was 21 points higher to 14,839 but below Monday’s peak before Wednesday’s sharp pullback to 14,700.  The midweek low was 14,687 but support at 14,600 was never seriously tested.  Thursday’s surge back above resistance to 14,831 set the stage for Friday’s party to 15,009.  Although the index closed below the 15,000 level, it triggered a possible push to 15,300 over the near-term.  The Dow started the week at 14,712 and advanced 261 points, or 1.8%, by Friday’s close.  For the year, the blue-chips are showing a gain of 1,869 points, or 14.3%. (2-year chart): 

DOW5513

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The S&P 500 soared 17 points, or 1.1%, to close at 1,614.  The index needed to hold 1,575 following 3 solid closes above this level and traded up to 1,596 to start the week.  The close at 1,593 was 2 points off our 1,595 target to trigger 1,600 but Tuesday’s trip and close to 1,597.57 did the trick.  Wednesday’s pullback to 1,582 was disappointing but 1,575 held.  Thursday’s return to 1,597.59 was a higher high and was a good clue 1,600 would trip and our 1,625 target would be tested.  The high on Friday checked-in at 1,618.46 and is an all-time high along with the close.  There is a chance 1,650 comes into play on a close above this level.  The S&P 500 came into Monday at 1,582 and jumped 32 points, or 2%, for the week.  For 2013, the index is up 189 points, or 13.2%. (2-year chart):

SPX5513

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Last week’s chart of the S&P and the trading range it broke out of (6-month chart):

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The Nasdaq rocked it for 38 points, or 1.1%, to end at 3,378.  Tech was in the matrix as it needed to hold 3,275 or make a break above 3,300 on Monday or remain in a trading range.  No problem.  The bulls easily cleared resistance after trading to 3,315 and closing at 3,307.  We have been mentioning another close above this level could lead to 3,350.  Tuesday’s close at 3,328 put the Nasdaq halfway there but the bulls were living on a prayer following the back test and close to 3,299.  It was as close of a close to 3,300 you can get and it felt bullish even though the first of May was a go away day.  Not to be disappointed, the bulls recovered to push 3,340 on Thursday after kissing 3,344 and we have talked about 3,400 triggering on a close above this level.  Friday’s peak was 3388.12 and with the close, the bulls are just a double-deuce away from a possible run to 3,500.  The Nasdaq started Monday at 3,279 and added 99 points, or 3%, for the week.  YTD, Tech has jumped 359 points, or 11.9%. (2-year chart):

NAS5513

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The Russell 2000 rallied over 14 points, 1.6%, to settle at 954.42 on Friday.  The small-caps needed to make a push past 940 and did with Monday’s touchdown to 942.  The close set up a run for 950 and Tuesday’s peak and close at 947.46 looked so promising before the bottom fell out on Wednesday.  The 2% drop pushed the Russell back below 940 and 930 with the close of of 924.  Support at 920 held and any dip below this level could lead to a back test to 900.  No worries.  The bulls nearly recovered all of their losses as they made a run to 940.72 on Thursday.  The close at 939.85 left us a little uneasy but Friday’s surge to new all-time highs at 959.55 set the stage for a test to our 975 target.  We aren’t sure if the Russell will make it to a 1,000 before a pullback but it could.  The Russell 2000 came into the week at 935 and surged 19 points, or 2.1%, ahead of the weekend.  The small-caps are higher by 105 points, or 12.4%, for 2013.

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The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 12.85, down 0.74) came into the week at 13.61 and needed to hold 15 to keep the rally going.  The high came on Wednesday’s pullback on the S&P as the VIX reached 14.67.  This level is still an early warning sign and a close above 17.50 down the road would mean the bullish trend is ending.  The 52-week low is for the VIX is 11.05 and we said single-digits are possible if the S&P 500 triggered 1,700.

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The bulls closed out April with a bang as the major averages enjoyed healthy gains excluding the small-caps.  We mentioned in March the blue-chips do well in April and the Dow didn’t disappoint as it gained nearly 261 points, or 1.8%.  The S&P 500 added 28 points, to close out the month with a 1.8% pop as well.  The Nasdaq jumped 61 points, or 1.9%, while the Russell 2000 slipped 4 points, 0.4%.

We mentioned at the end of March that April is usually the strongest month for the Dow and the 2% gains for the Big 3 was bullish to close out the month.  We also mentioned last week May could be a big month for Tech with gains of 3% and the Nasdaq got that in the first week. 

Much of this was due to the strong gains in Apple (AAPL, $449.98, up $4.46), Google (GOOG, $845.72, up $16.11) and to a lesser degree, Amazon. com (AMZN, $258.05, up $5.50) which we said need to show some strength.  We wanted to make Apple an official Weekly Wrap trade but we wanted to “paper trade” the mini options to see if how they performed as you will see below.

A continued run in Tech would be bullish for our near-term target of 3,500 for the Nasdaq but we also want to see the Financial stocks breakout. 

They did on Friday as you can see from the Financial Select Sector Spiders (XLF, $18.85, up $0.20).  A run to $20 over the near-term is possible and we are profiling the May 19 calls (XLF130518C00019000, $0.12, up $0.04) and the June 19 calls (XLF130622C00019000, $0.32, up $0.07).  As far as specific stocks, as long as JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $47.57, down $0.51) holds $47, we would look at the June 50 calls (JPM130622C00050000, $0.40, down $0.05) which could be a cheap lottery play for a push past $50.  At $51, these call options would more than double. 

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Gold continues to rebound after closing near $1,470 on Friday.  The high was 1,487 an ounce and a close above $1,500 could be bulish for a pop up to $1,550.  A close below $1,450 could be a warning sign $1,400 comes back in the mix with further risk down to $1,300.

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Silver closed just above $24 on Friday and could run to $26 over the near-term.  A close above this level would be bullish for a test back to $28-$30.  If silver falls below $22 there is a good chance $20 or the highs teens come into play.

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Copper fell to an 18th-month low after testing $3 but rallied 4% on Friday.  Copper has been heading lower for quite a while with inventories building around the world all year.  We warned back in February that a close below $3.50 would be bearish but the bullish bounce was due to a report that storage around the world is now falling.  The base metals have been weak but this is a good sign going forward.  We mentioned at $3.50 that Copper was a read on the global economy and we have warned of the dip to $3.  Right now, the market is ignoring the base metals and could continue to do so but this is a bearish story developing over the longer-term if Copper fades at resistance and closes below $3. 

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With earnings season halfway over, the market will rely less on the headlines and could return to fundamentals.  The good news is that 70% of the S&P companies are beating on the top line (earnings per share) but only 40% are hitting on the bottom line.  However, it has also been a record quarter for S&P earnings overall and the next earnings cycle in July could decide the market’s fate for the rest of the summer.

While the Fed may have let the market down to start the “sell in May” catcalls on Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) saved the bulls by cutting their main refinancing rate by a quarter-point to 0.50% from 0.75%.  It was a little more than a 50/50 chance on the cut as some of the midweek pullback could be attributed to the ECB possibly leaving rates unchanged.  They didn’t and the good news it could be a game changer for higher growth in Europe if the zombies can deploy the cut to the real economy, and not to the financial markets.

We haven’t talked about the zombies here at home in recent weeks which has been nice but with the sequester cuts starting to surface and the debt ceiling coming back into the picture later this month, we could see them back in the mix.  The upcoming headache could cause some worry in the market as any solution is likely to be debated with the usual back-and-forth gibberish before something gets done.  However, if there is a real effort to pull a Beatles and come together, it would be bullish.

The talking heads and suit-and-ties are battening down the hatches for a rough May but we are still sticking with a bullish thesis as long as the bulls hold the longer-term bottom uptrend lines.  We will know when a 5% pullback or 10% correction is coming because any break below the downside targets we have given you could accelerate the selling pressure but until then, the trend is our friend as the bulls continue to seek new highs.

China’s PMI numbers are due out tonight and will see the tone for futures and European trading tonight.  Monday’s have been bullish in recent weeks and Tuesday’s have been phenomenal and a good start to the week should trigger all of our upper end price targets but we would expect a pullback before our yearend price targets are met.

Futures are showing a slightly higher open for Monday:  Dow futures are higher by 18 points to 14,916 while the S&P 500 futures are up a point to 1,609.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are advancing 8 points to 2,943.

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Key of Technicals Used In Following Articles

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2.  Zillow (Z)Earnings Due Out This Week

By Michael Bryant

New home sales for the month of March rose to 1.03 million, up 46.7% from a year ago.  With more buyers, realtors need to sell more homes.  That is where Zillow (Z, $60.67, up $0.50) comes in handy.  We also briefly mentioned the company just after its IPO, in the Weekly Wrap on July 24, 2011.  The company reports earning this Tuesday.

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Founded in 2005, Rich Barton and Lloyd Frink, former Microsoft executives and founders of Microsoft spin-off Expedia, wanted to make it easier for people to make intelligent decisions about buying, selling, renting, leasing, remodeling, and financing their homes.  The two decided to make a website, which they named Zillow.  The name is a combination of the desire to make zillions of data points for homes accessible to everyone and a pillow.  In its early days, the site generated almost all of its revenue by selling advertising.

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Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, located under mortgage rates on the website, gives custom loan quotes without the browser revealing personally identifying information, such as Social Security numbers and phone numbers.  The buyer remains anonymous until he or she is ready to contact the lender.  Lenders are required to list rates plus all fees.  This allows buyers to do accurate comparisons. Their system also allows borrowers to filter various loans by rate, fees, monthly payment, annual percentage rate (APR), lender rating, and distance to the lender.  Lenders can browse borrower requests and see competing quotes from other brokers before making a bid.

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The “Digs” section allows a home buyer to search pictures of gardens, bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, and living rooms to find remodeling ideas.  Zillow also releases a Homeowner Confidence Survey, which measures homeowners’ perceptions about home values of their own home and the local market.  It also offers a Premier Agent program, which offers a suite of marketing and business technology solutions for real estate agents, and advertising services for agents.

From the screenshots and information, it is not a surprise that the company’s website has grown to become the most popular place to start a search for a home.  In September 2011, it had more than 24 million unique visitors, representing 103% year-over-year growth.  At last year’s summer peak, it had 37 million unique monthly visitors to its mobile and internet sites.  Its database now includes more than 100 million U.S. homes.  It is free to list in their database.

Starting on April 29, 2009, Zillow Mobile was released for the iPhone.  It included four apps: real estate, rentals, mortgage calculator and rates, and Zillow Rental Pro.  Using the iPhone’s GPS, the app pinpoints a user’s location and shows nearby homes on aerial maps.  The apps also shows most of everything the site offers, such as estimated home and rental values, historical property records, for-sale listings, photos, a graph of mortgage rates, a calculator for mortgage monthly payments, a calculator to see how much one can afford, and a calculator for refinancing.  Zillow Rental Pro is an app for real estate agents to communicate with clients and landlords on the go and share listings with clients.  The apps have data on 95% of the homes in the country.

Then on March 18, 2010, it introduced an Android App, which could do most of the things the iPhone apps do.  Something different, users can also search for homes and neighborhoods using the Android’s voice search.  On April 2, 2010, it launched an iPad App.  And on March 31, 2011, Zillow launched a Blackberry App.

However, there have been some complaints about its home and rental estimates.  Back in 2007, The Wall Street Journal studied the accuracy of Zillow’s estimates (Zestimates) and found that they “often are very good, frequently within a few percentage points of the actual price paid. But when Zillow is bad, it can be terrible.”  Zestimates are determined by public information such as sales of comparable houses in a neighborhood and recent remodeling if it is factored into the system.  The accuracy of its Zestimates varies by location depending on how much information is publicly available, but Zillow allows users to check the accuracy of Zestimates in their own region against actual sales.

In February 2011, Zillow and Yahoo! Real Estate launched an exclusive partnership creating the largest real-estate advertising network on the web.  Then the company went on an acquisition spree.  In April 2011, it acquired Postlets, an online real estate listing creation and distribution platform.  In November 2011, it acquired Diverse Solutions for $7.8 million.  In May 2012, it acquired RentJuice, a company which makes software for property managers to manage their rental properties through a set of online tools, for $40 million.  In October 2012, it acquired real estate shopping and collaboration platform Buyfolio.  In November 2012, it acquired mortgage technology company Mortech for $17 million.  Also in November 2012, it acquired HotPads, which lists real estate and rental listings on a map-based web interface, for $16 million.  Acquisitions usually take a year to start benefitting a company’s bottom line.  Thus, it should see improved bottom line through most of this year.

On Thursday, September 20, 2012, rival real estate search engine Trulia (TRLA) went public at $17 a share, but closed at $24 a share.  Both Zillow and TRLA make the bulk of their money selling subscription services to real estate agents.  TRLA reported 1st quarter earnings on Tuesday April 30th.  Revenue soared 97% as the average monthly visitors rose 52% to $31.4 million.  Earnings came in at -$0.02, way better than the -$0.54 a year ago.  This could hint that Zillow may also do well when it reports 1st quarter earnings on Tuesday May 7th before the bell. 

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As shown in the graphs, analysts’ earnings targets seems easily attainable but revenue may barely meet estimates.

The only nationwide serious competitor is Trulia $35.00, up $2.73).  Zillow is the leader, TRLA a close second, and Realtor.com in the third place.  However, Realtor.com has been consistently losing market share for the last few years.  Its parent is Move (MOVE, $10.91, down $0.41).

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At $60.67, the stock is slightly above its median target, which is also the high target, of $60.00 made by the 9 analysts recorded by Thomson/First Call.  Mean target is $55.44, and low target is $38.00.  Using a scale of 1.0 as a strong buy and 5.0 as a sell, the average rating of the stock was 2.2, down from 2.1 a week ago.

 

Current Month

Last Month

Two Months Ago

Three Months Ago

Strong Buy

2

2

2

2

Buy

0

0

0

0

Hold

3

3

4

4

Underperform

0

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The earnings report could sway the stock either way but revenues will need to come in better-than-expected.  We are adding the Zillow May 65 calls (Z130518C00065000, $x) to our Daily Watch List and could make a play on them.  The May 55 puts (Z130518P00055000, $1.55, down $x) could be used for a possible strangle option trade but the premiums for each are expensive due to the stock’s high beta.  This would require a 10+% move in the stock for the strangle options trade to be profitable and chances are shares will see a big move after the earnings announcement.

 

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3.  Apple Mini Options Pack a Punch

 

We were thisclose to making Apple (AAPL, $449.98, up $4.46) and official trade recommendation last week by using the mini options.  We haven’t traded any mini options as they just became available and there are only 5 stocks that we can trade as of right now.  Others are coming but let’s take a look at how Apple traded last week.

Apple came into the week at $417 and opened at $420.45 on Monday.  It would have cost $42,045 to buy 100 shares of Apple on the open and if you would have sold the Apple May 440 call (AAPL130518C00440000, $13.40, up $2.00) you would have received $2.45 or $245.  This would have lowered your cost basis to $41,800 but you are now on the hook to sell your shares if the stock is above $440 by mid-May or when the options expire. 

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Assuming Apple is above $440 by expiration (May 18) you would be called away and you would now have $44,000 in your account after making 5%.  This would be a great return in 3 weeks but most investors don’t have the capital to buy 100 shares of Apple and it is a ton of money to put at risk to make single-digits on one trade.

The mini options hope to solve this problem by only requiring investors to buy 10 shares of stock in order to write a covered call.  These options trade like regular options but with a slightly different symbol that include a “7”.  This also reduces the cost of writing covered calls on triple-digit stocks to a tenth of the price.

Using the above scenario with Apple opening at $420.45 last Monday, to buy 10 shares would have cost $4,204.50.  The Apple May 440 call (mini) (AAPL7130518C00440000, $13.20, up $1.75) opened at $2.47 and you would have received $24.70.  This gets your cost down to $4,179.80.

These calls closed at $8.50 on Monday and on Tuesday they zoomed another 70% to close at $14.45.  From Monday’s open this would equate to a sizzling 500% gain in just 2 days.  These options pulled back on Wednesday but on Thursday they traded up to $13.50 after Apple closed at $445 and near this level on Friday.  We would have likely cashed in before Tuesday’s close with a 5-bagger if we had taken the mini’s as a directional call option trade for our Daily, but overall, the calls returned 434% from Monday’s open to Friday’ close.  

Yes, we missed an incredible trade for our Daily but once we master the mini options that trade on Apple, watch out!

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4.  Earnings 

The companies in BOLD, we are looking at as possible trades and we may list call or put options on them in our Daily Newsletter.  If they become official recommendations, we sent out Trade Alerts or include them in our 9am and 1pm updates that come out during the week (Quotes are from 5/3/13 close)

By Catherine Tierney

 

Monday

Accretive Health (AH, $10.33, down $0.06), Achillion (ACHN, $6.94, up $0.12), Adams Resources (AE, $49.30, up $0.60), AG Mortgage Investment Trust (MITT, $25.27, down $0.53), Alexander’s (ALX, $307.47, up $5.58), Alleghany (Y, $384.80, down $2.08), Anadarko Petroleum (APC, $86.60, up $1.81), American Realty (ARCP, $16.76, up $0.32), Apollo (AMTG, $21.63, down $0.34), Arden (ARDNA, $98.00, up $0.20), Berry Petroleum (BRY, $48.59, up $0.29), Black Diamond (BDE, $9.85, up $0.20), BP Prudhoe Bay (BPT, $81.13, up $0.31), Breitburn Bridgepoint (BPI, $11.01, up $0.33), BroadSoft (BSFT, $26.00, up $0.55), Capital Senior Living (CSU, $25.86, up $0.32), Carmike Cinemas (CKEC, $17.35, up $0.09), Chuy’s (CHUY, $32.86, up $0.39), Colony (CLNY, $23.07, up $0.90), CommonWealth REIT (CWH, $21.04, down $0.73), CompX (CIX, $11.84, down $0.16), Connecticut Water (CTWS, $28.68, up $0.47), Craft Credicorp (BAP, $147.74, down $0.99), Cutera (CUTR, $11.74, up $0.04), DCP Midstream (DPM, $48.06, up $0.29), Dillard’s (DDS, $84.34, up $1.44), Dominion (DOM, $5.01, up $0.06), Ducommun (DCO, $25.15, down $0.25), Ebix (EBIX, $19.52, up $0.01), EnerNOC (ENOC, $17.71, up $0.71), EV Energy (EVEP, $42.15, down $0.20), Evolution Petroleum (EPM, $9.97, up $0.21), The E. W. Scripps (SSP, $14.42, up $0.36), First Citizens. (FCZA, $7.30, Flat), Flotek (FTK, $16.20, up $0.52), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP, $13.35, up $0.83), Greenway Medical (GWAY, $12.29, up $0.02), Hi-Crush (HCLP, $17.94, down $0.49), Hologic (HOLX, $20.02, up $0.10), Horsehead (ZINC, $10.73, up $0.31), The Howard Hughes (HHC, $96.91, up $1.47), Hudson Pacific (HPP, $22.73, up $0.24), Innospec (IOSP, $43.67, up $0.92), Insulet (PODD, $25.50, up $0.61), Interactive Intelligence (ININ, $41.39, up $0.71), International Bancshares (IBOC, $19.61, up $0.61), Intersections (INTX, $9.66, up $0.39), Kansas City Life (KCLI, $36.57, up $0.62), Keryx (KERX, $8.06, up $0.16), Kronos (KRO, $17.54, up $0.12), Landauer (LDR, $53.93, up $0.43), Lannett (LCI, $36.57, up $0.62), Legacy (LGCY, $26.11, up $0.03), Liberty (LBTYA, $74.98, up $0.66), Mercadolibre (MELI, $104.02, up $3.29), MGE Energy (MGEE, $55.49, up $1.10), Middleby (MIDD, $144.78, up $0.65), Mindray Medical (MR, $38.93, up $0.14), Mobile Mini (MINI, $28.99, up $1.07), MTS (MTSC, $61.60, up $0.61), NASB (NASB, $22.92, up $0.91), National Health (NHI, $67.10, up $1.32), National Western Life (NWLI, $197.35, up $11.68), Nature’s Sunshine (NATR, $14.44, up $0.26), Nautilus (NLS, $6.43, down $0.05), New Mountain (NMFC, $15.16, up $0.08), Noah (NOAH, $7.88, up $0.25),Northern Oil (NOG, $13.03, up $0.48), Official Payments (OPAY, $5.68, up $0.18), One Liberty (OLP, $22.92, up $0.15), Orbotech (ORBK, $10.22, up $0.46), PAA Natural Gas (PNG, $21.90, up $0.34), Parkway Properties (PKY, $18.20, down $0.05), PetMed Express (PETS, $13.19, up $0.48), PHI (PHII, $28.22, up $2.76), Pike Electric (PIKE, $15.68, up $0.29), Plains All American (PAA, $57.45, up $0.80), PNM (PNM, $23.84, up $0.37), Preferred Apartment (APTS, $9.10, Flat), ProAssurance (PRA, $49.53, up $0.21), Progressive (PGR, $25.05, down $0.07), Prospect Capital (PSEC, $11.05, up $0.08), Protective Life (PL, $38.60, up $0.59), PS Business Parks (PSB, $81.03, up $1.80), Psychemedics (PMD, $11.24, up $0.18), Reading (RDI, $5.74, up $0.09), Resolute Energy (REN, $9.41, up $0.31), Resource America (REXI, $9.15, up $0.20), Responsys (MKTG, $8.13, up $0.28), Retail Properties of America (RPAI, $15.75, up $0.11), Rexnord (RXN, $17.30, down $0.04), RigNet (RNET, $23.60, up $0.38), Rosetta (ROSE, $42.60, up $0.86), Ruckus (RKUS, $18.07, down $0.16), Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR, $51.08, up $0.19), Sagent (SGNT, $16.52, up $0.18), SandRidge Mississippian (SDT, $14.23, up $0.14), SandRidge Permian Trust (PER, $14.47, up $0.12), Santarus (SNTS, $18.80, up $0.32), The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG, $45.81, up $0.69), Skilled Healthcare (SKH, $6.69, down $0.06), STAG (STAG, $22.16, up $0.30), StarTek (SRT, $6.93, down $0.05), Stone Energy (SGY, $20.18, up $1.01), Sun Hydraulics (SNHY, $33.43, up $1.06), Sunstone Hotel (SHO, $12.25, down $0.01), Sykes Enterprises (SYKE, $15.44, up $0.38), Sysco (SYY, $34.66, down $0.36), Tecumseh (TECUA, $8.62, up $0.24), Tesoro (TLLP, $63.29, up $0.93), THL (TCRD, $15.27, up $0.14), Tootsie Roll (TR, $31.12, up $0.62), Tyson (TSN, $24.93, up $0.32), UMH (UMH, $11.05, Flat), USA Truck (USAK, $5.37, up $0.05), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO, $86.93, down $0.32), Westlake (WLK, $82.45, up $1.93), Whitestone (WSR, $16.50, down $0.14), Willbros (WG, $9.90, up $0.18), WMS (WMS, $25.30, down $0.03)

 

Tuesday

ACADIA (ACAD, $12.35, up $0.02), AECOM (ACM, $29.84, up $0.68), AerCap (AER, $15.99, Flat), Akorn (AKRX, $15.36, up $0.31), Albany Molecular (AMRI, $11.55, down $0.16), American Science (ASEI, $64.75, up $1.16), American Water Works (AWK, $41.88, down $0.25), Arbitron (ARB, $46.75, up $0.11), Ares (ARCC, $18.12, down $0.08), Ariad (ARIA, $17.07, down $0.32), Aviv (AVIV, $26.81, up $0.38), Bio-Rad (BIO, $120.75, up $2.57), BIOLASE (BIOL, $5.18, up $0.05), Blount (BLT, $13.68, up $0.23), BMC (BMC, $45.42, up $0.18), Broadridge (BR, $25.32, down $0.04), CH Robinson (CHRW, $60.47, up $1.10), CA (CA, $27.73, up $0.50), Calamos (CLMS, $11.16, Flat), Carriage (CSV, $16.88, up $0.19), Carrizo Oil (CRZO, $25.85, up $0.70), Charter (CHTR, $104.61, up $1.48), Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT, $18.26, up $0.08), Checkpoint (CKP, $11.30, up $0.16), Chiquita (CQB, $8.63, up $0.09), Cimarex (XEC, $74.03, up $2.13), Clovis Oncology (CLVS, $37.91, up $0.53), Coca-Cola (COKE, $61.23, up $0.82), Cogent (CCOI, $28.85, up $0.49), Communications Systems (JCS, $9.67, down $0.07), CommVault (CVLT, $77.49, up $1.14), Compass Diversified (CODI, $16.75, up $0.18), Compressco (GSJK, $22.17, up $0.07), Core-Mark (CORE, $51.42, up $0.48), CPI Aerostructures (CVU, $9.12, up $0.02), Crestwood (CMLP, $23.85, up $0.14), DaVita (DVA, $117.32, down $0.58), Delek (DKL, $33.44, up $1.42), Demand (DMD, $8.38, up $0.09), Demandware (DWRE, $28.62, up $1.02), Digital Generation (DGIT, $6.72, up $0.28), DIRECTV (DTV, $57.89, up $0.12), Douglas Emmett  (DEI, $26.18, down $0.07), DuPont Fabros (DFT, $25.36, up $0.18), eGain (EGAN, $7.97, up $0.07), Electro Scientific (ESIO, $10.68, up $0.24), Electronic Arts (EA, $17.95, up $0.41), Emerson Electric (EMR, $56.82, up $1.02), Endo Health (ENDP, $37.58, up $0.63), Enphase (ENPH, $7.74, up $0.24), EOG (EOG, $123.98, up $4.31), ESCO (ESE, $36.01, up $0.58), Farmer Brothers (FARM, $14.81, up $0.59), Fiesta (FRGI, $29.39, up $1.45), Financial Engines (FNGN, $35.72, up $0.12), FirstEnergy (FE, $44.99, down $0.52), Fossil (FOSL, $98.26, up $1.76), Furiex (FURX, $32.80, up $0.46), Giant Interactive (GA, $7.66, up $0.03), Global Cash (GCA, $7.33, up $0.21), Globe (GSM, $13.25, up $0.17), Grand Canyon (LOPE, $25.82, up $0.51), Health Care (HCN, $74.90, up $0.08), Healthcare Trust of America (HTA, $12.85, up $0.30), Henry Schein (HSIC, $90.72, up $0.65), Higher One (ONE, $9.75, up $0.10), Himax (HIMX, $6.61, up $0.66), HollyFrontier (HFC, $50.46, up $0.89), Horizon (HRZN, $14.48, up $0.11), IAMGOLD (IAG, $5.56, up $0.10), Ignite (IRG, $17.72, up $0.38 ), Inergy (NRGY, $22.30, up $0.33), Inergy Midstream (NRGM, $24.55, down $0.16), International Flavors (IFF, $77.94, up $1.13), Jazz (JAZZ, $58.72, down $0.51), John Bean (JBT, $20.95, up $0.62), KapStone Paper and Packaging (KS, $29.13, up $0.60), Live Nation (LYV, $12.69, up $0.16), Louisiana-Pacific (LPX, $18.14, up $0.23), MAKO Surgical (MAKO, $10.65, up $0.16), Marathon Oil (MRO, $33.53, up $1.07), McKesson (MCK, $108.14, up $0.70), Mid-Con (MCEP, $22.96, down $0.14), Mitek (MITK, $5.34, up $0.04), Model N (MODN, $19.89, up $0.28), Mondelez (MDLZ, $31.73, up $0.31), Myriad Genetics (MYGN, $27.93, up $0.32), National Research (NRCI, $62.54, up $2.18), Nationstar Mortgage (NSM, $36.85, down $0.34), NGP Capital Resources (NGPC, $6.52, down $0.02), NRG (NRG, $27.61, up $0.46), NTELOS (NTLS, $14.72, up $0.22), Oaktree (OAK, $53.62, up $0.98), Oasis Petroleum (OAS, $34.26, up $1.06), OfficeMax (OMX, $11.59, up $0.24), Omega (OHI, $34.33, up $0.67), Omega Protein (OME, $9.34, up $0.07), Onyx (ONXX, $90.46, down $0.99), Ormat (ORA, $22.00, up $0.35), Osiris (OSIR, $10.11, down $0.49), Papa John’s (PZZA, $65.01, up $0.67), Perrigo (PRGO, $119.23, up $0.62), PICO (PICO, $21.92, up $0.46), Plantronics (PLT, $44.96, up $1.41), Powell (POWL, $50.36, up $1.85), Primerica (PRI, $34.55, up $0.69), Primoris (PRIM, $22.59, up $0.61), Quad/Graphics (QUAD, $20.72, up $0.78), RDA (RDA, $9.64, up $0.02), ReachLocal (RLOC, $16.83, down $0.14), Red Lion Hotels (RLH, $16.83, down $0.14 ), Regency (REG, $57.45, up $0.87), Regis (RGS, $18.90, up $0.50), R.G. Barry (DFZ, $14.07, up $0.35), Rubicon (RBCN, $7.30, up $0.29), Ryman (RHP, $43.81, up $0.39), Saga (SGA, $46.00, up $0.85), Salem (SALM, $8.92, down $0.07), SandRidge (SD, $5.26, up $0.08), Scientific Games (SGMS, $9.09, up $0.25), Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $36.35, up $0.15), Snyder’s-Lance (LNCE, $25.37, up $0.66), Solar Capital (SLRC, $23.74, up $0.15), Solar Senior Capital (SUNS, $19.15, up $0.05), Solera (SLH, $57.96, up $0.57), Steris (STE, $41.25, up $0.16), Steven Madden (SHOO, $47.28, up $0.25), Stonemor (STON, $26.51, Flat), Sucampo (SCMP, $8.96, up $0.18), SurModics (SRDX, $26.04, down $0.12), Symantec (SYMC, $24.84, up $0.28), TETRA (TTI, $9.35, up $0.23), Textainer (TGH, $39.16, up $0.43), The Andersons (ANDE, $54.92, up $1.32), The Pantry (PTRY, $14.83, up $0.31), Tornier (TRNX, $18.07, down $0.29), Towers Watson (TW, $74.02, up $1.09), TransDigm (TDG, $149.50, up $0.48), TripAdvisor (TRIP, $55.30, up $1.79), TW Telecom (TWTC, $26.48, down $0.57), Two Harbors (TWO, $11.55, down $0.39), Unit (UNT, $43.00, up $1.35), United Fire (UFCS, $29.20, up $1.18), URS (URS, $45.54, up $0.91), ValueClick (VCLK, $31.87, up $1.09), Vishay Precision (VPG, $14.12, up $0.45), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI, $48.77, up $0.36), W&T Offshore (WTI, $12.14, up $0.61), The Walt Disney Company (DIS, $64.80, up $0.92), WebMD (WBMD, $25.12, up $0.85), Whole Foods Market (WFM, $91.46, up $1.19), Williams (WMB, $37.54, up $0.23), Williams (WPZ, $51.52, up $1.55), W. P. Carey (WPC, $70.90, up $0.08), Xerium (XRM, $9.50, up $0.16), XPO Logistics (XPO, $16.52, up $0.25), Zillow (Z, $60.67, up $0.50)

 

Wednesday

Activision Blizzard (ATVI, $15.18, up $0.33), ALLETE (ALE, $51.25, up $0.45), Alon USA Energy (ALJ, $16.63, down $0.14), Alon USA (ALDW, $25.95, up $0.60), American (AFG, $48.15, up $0.53), AOL (AOL, $40.34, down $0.26), Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT, $12.91, up $0.03), BofI (BOFI, $39.47, up $0.01), Calumet (CLMT, $36.85, up $0.16), Cedar Fair (FUN, $14.98, up $0.22), CenturyLink (CTL, $37.14, up $0.10), CF (CF, $), China Lodging (HTHT, $15.04, down $0.04), Chindex (CHDX, $13.47, up $0.12), Cognizant (CTSH, $66.61, up $2.27), Continental (CLR, $80.58, up $2.64), Corrections Corporation of America (CXW, $37.07, up $0.61), Cousins (CUZ, $11.08, up $0.12), Ctrip.com (CTRP, $22.60, up $0.35), Dealertrack (TRAK, $28.84, up $0.68), Delek US (DK, $36.60, up $0.70), DepoMed (DEPO, $5.41, down $0.01), The Dixie Group (DXYN, $7.35, up $0.72), DTS (DTSI, $17.19, up $0.45), Employers (EIG, $23.13, up $0.58), Energy Transfer (ETP, $47.83, up $0.23), Entercom (ETM, $8.19, up $0.21), EPAM (EPAM, $22.39, up $0.80), Fifth Street (FSC, $10.98, up $0.02), ExamWorks (EXAM, $17.78, up $0.04), Fifth Street Finance (FSC, $10.98, up $0.02), Forestar (FOR, $22.13, up $0.49), Fuel (FSYS, $15.92, down $0.20), G. Willi Food- (WILC, $6.84, down $0.05), Geeknet (GKNT, $12.93, up $0.23), GenMark (GNMK, $14.81, down $0.27), The GEO Group (GEO, $37.83, up $0.07), Gilat Satellite (GILT, $5.56, up $0.04), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $58.08, up $0.73), Groupon (GRPN, $5.84, down $0.02), Harbinger (HRG, $9.04, up $0.05), Hawaiian Electric (HE, $28.07, up $0.22), Huntington Ingalls (HII, $53.34, up $0.39), Inter Parfums (IPAR, $28.98, up $0.16), Interxion (INXN, $25.41, up $0.43), IntraLinks (IL, $5.97, up $0.20), j2 Global (JCOM, $41.31, up $1.21), Kelly (KELYA, $16.71, up $0.26), Lamar (LAMR, $48.54, up $0.25), LHC (LHCG, $21.93, up $0.32), Liberty (LINTA, $21.40, up $0.06), Liberty Media (LMCA, $118.38, up $1.25), Ligand (LGND, $26.21, Flat), LivePerson (LPSN, $12.95, up $0.46), Loral Space (LORL, $63.15, up $1.67), Lufkin (LUFK, $88.39, down $0.03), Magnetek (MAG, $15.61, down $0.25), Maidenform (MFB, $17.96, up $0.37), MarkWest (MWE, $60.70, down $0.22), Matrix (MTRX, $15.39, up $0.38), MBIA (MBI, $9.83, up $0.75), McDermott (MDR, $10.68, up $0.25), Millennial Media (MM, $7.10, up $0.14), Monmouth Real Estate Investment (MNR, $10.64, up $0.08), Neenah Paper (NP, $), Neonode (NEON, $), News (NWSA, $), Nexstar Broadcasting (NXST, $25.32, up $0.15), Oiltanking (OILT, $49.96, down $0.13), Orthofix (OFIX, $32.15, up $0.25), PCTEL (PCTI, $6.70, up $0.28), PhotoMedex (PHMD, $16.31, up $0.19), Polypore (PPO, $40.44, down $0.07), PowerSecure (POWR, $13.57, Flat), (PRSC, $17.91, up $0.06), QR (QRE, $17.57, down $0.18), Rackspace (RAX, $49.49, down $0.50), Regency Energy (RGP, $25.54, up $0.51), Sanchez (SN, $18.48, up $0.99), Schweitzer-Mauduit (SWM, $40.58, up $0.78), Shutterstock (SSTK, $44.41, up $0.45), SkyWest (SKYW, $14.69, up $0.15), SodaStream (SODA, $54.00, up $1.18), Solazyme (SZYM, $9.16, up $0.09), SouFun (SFUN, $25.04, down $0.51), Spartan Motors (SPAR, $5.32, up $0.09), Spirit Realty (SRC, $21.91, up $0.36), Spreadtrum (SPRD, $20.61, down $0.96), The St. Joe (JOE, $20.10, up $0.54), Starwood Property Trust (STWD, $27.37, down $0.06), Supertex (SUPX, $21.24, up $1.03), Susser (SUSS, $56.00, up $0.91), SWS (SWS, $5.75, up $0.15), Tesla Motors (TSLA, $54.55, up $0.44), Tower (TWGP, $19.05, up $0.39), Triangle Capital (TCAP, $27.83, up $0.34), Tumi (TUMI, $23.86, up $0.47), Walker & Dunlop (WD, $17.99, up $0.37), Westar (WR, $34.22, down $0.06)

 

Thursday

The Advisory Board (ABCO, $48.11, down $1.43), Aeroflex (ARX, $7.51, up $0.11), The AES Corporation (AES, $13.82, down $0.01), Air Lease (AL, $28.24, up $0.54), Air Methods (AIRM, $36.05, do0wn $0.14), Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX, $13.70, up $0.02), AMC (AMCX, $64.02, up $0.59), American Pacific (APFC, $24.60, up $0.60), American Public (APEI, $32.44, up $0.36), Apache (APA, $75.24, up $1.44), Bebe (BEBE, $5.11, down $0.21), Bitauto (BITA, $11.44, up $0.06), Black Box (BBOX, $21.45, up $0.09), Boingo Wireless (WIFI, $6.23, up $0.01), Brooks (BRKS, $9.76, up $0.31), Cablevision (CVC, $15.28, up $0.21), CareFusion (CFN, $34.14, up $0.54), The Carlyle Group (CG, $32.44, up $0.45), Cedar Realty Trust (CDR, $6.44, up $0.03), Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE, $15.27, up $0.30), Coleman Cable (CCIX, $14.58, down $0.22), Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB, $24.60, up $0.18), Crosstex (XTXI, $17.91, up $0.21), Darling (DAR, $18.54, up $0.34), Dean Foods (DF, $19.38, up $0.18), DENTSPLY (XRAY, $42.66, up $0.55), Diodes (DIOD, $20.61, up $0.76), EMC (EMCI, $28.78, up $0.41), ExactTarget (ET, $21.34, up $0.96), FTI Consulting (FCN, $33.18, up $1.11), Gentiva (GTIV, $10.31, up $0.32), Global (GLP, $34.56, down $0.14), Global Power (GLPW, $16.33, up $0.29), Granite Construction (GVA, $28.44, up $0.83), Great Plains (GXP, $), Hardinge (HDNG, $13.79, up $0.15), Harsco (HSC, $22.35, up $0.55), Heidrick & Struggles (HSII, $13.13, up $0.76), Infinity Property and Casualty (IPCC, $59.74, up $2.67), Inland Real Estate (IRC, $11.35, up $0.18), InnerWorkings (INWK, $9.83, down $0.09), Kaydon (KDN, $24.16, up $0.46), Kosmos (KOS, $10.92, up $0.04), Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS, $5.26, up $0.11), Laredo Petroleum (LPI, $17.70, up $0.75), LIN TV (TVL, $12.64, up $0.18), magicJack VocalTec (CALL, $17.05, up $0.28), Main Street (MAIN, $29.37, up $0.07), Market Leader (LEDR, $9.54, down $0.15), MAXIMUS (MMS, $76.81, up $0.31), Medivation (MDVN, $52.85, down $0.13), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC, $24.39, down $0.76), Nelnet (NNI, $35.01, up $0.81), Net 1 Ueps (UEPS, $7.44, up $0.07), Niska Gas Storage (NKA, $15.11, up $0.17), Opko Health (OPK, $6.67, up $0.13), P&F Industries (PFIN, $7.91, up $0.09), PCM (PCMI, $7.58, up $0.13), Perficient (PRFT, $11.10, up $0.19), Performant (PFMT, $10.24, up $0.32), Precision Castparts (PCP, $189.90, up $1.62), priceline.com (PCLN, $724.77, up $16.82), Public Storage (PSA, $166.48, up $0.60), Rentech Nitrogen (RNF, $36.77, down $0.23), Rick’s Cabaret (RICK, $8.43, down $0.03), RRSat Global Communications (RRST, $8.29, up $0.15), Salix (SLXP, $53.99, up $1.30), San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT, $15.43, up $0.02), Sapient (SAPE, $12.00, up $0.49), ServiceSource (SREV, $5.93, up $0.19), Starz (STRZA, $24.12, up $0.21), Stoneridge (SRI, $7.63, up $0.29), TransAct (TACT, $7.58, up $0.08), Treehouse Foods (THS, $64.27, up $0.57), US Physical Therapy (USPH, $24.26, up $0.28), Universal Display (PANL, $32.12, up $0.84), USA Compression (USAC, $21.70, up $0.30), Visteon (VC, $58.53, down $0.05), WageWorks (WAGE, $26.49, up $1.55), The WhiteWave (WWAV, $17.71, down $0.02), Windstream (WIN, $8.36, down $0.02), XO (XOXO, $11.55, up $0.28), Zygo (ZIGO, $15.10, up $0.74)

 

Friday

American States Water (AWR, $54.91, down $0.06), ATRION (ATRI, $195.00, up $6.20), Beacon Roofing (BECN, $39.11, up $0.74), Consolidated Water (CWCO, $9.76, up $0.22), CorEnergy Infrastructure (CORR, $7.68, up $0.04), Diamondrock (DRH, $10.00, up $0.14), LMI Aerospace (LMIA, $20.89, up $0.57), Sirona Dental (SIRO, $73.50, down $0.85), Sterling (STRL, $10.29, up $0.27),True Religion Apparel (TRLG, $28.02, up $0.03), Warner Chilcott (WCRX, $14.62, up $0.26), Zhongpin (HOGS, $12.96, down $0.01)

 

= = = = = = = = = = = = =

5.  Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio Update (Closing prices as of 5/3/13)

Our Weekly Wrap Closed Trade Track Record for 2013 is 13-1 (57-3, overall since late 2010).

We closed BAC for a 9% profit last week.

 

Current Trades

magicJackVocalTec (CALL, $17.05, up $0.28) 

May 17.50 calls (CALL130518C00017500, $0.70, up $0.05) 

Original Entry Price:  $16.65 (4/9/13)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $15.75

Exit Target:  $18-$20

Return:  8%

Stop Target:  $14

Action:   Shares held $16 all week and stayed in a tight range until Thursday’s push to $17.  We said last week a close above $17 would be bullish for a possible run to $19.  Support is at $16. 

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We recommended buying magicJack at $16.65 on 4/9/13.  We also sold the May 17.50 calls for 90 cents which lowered our cost basis to $15.75.  If we are called away at $17.50 in mid-May the trade will make 11%.

 

Genworth Financial (GNW, $10.47, up $0.14)

June 11 calls (GNW130622C00011000, $0.35, up $0.05)

Original Entry Price:  $9.88 (4/2/13)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $9.48

Exit Target:  $15+

Return:  11%

Stop Target:  $8

Action:  We sold the June 11 calls last Wednesday to lower our cost basis to $9.48.  Shares got a nice pop following the company’s earnings announcement and made a strong move past $10.  Friday’s high was $10.62.  Support at $9 was never threatened and is moving up.  This trade could easily get called away at $11 by mid-June and we could start another position on a close above this level for the Weekly (and Daily).  We have said this gem is going to $15 this year.

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We recommended buying Genworth Financial at $9.88 on 4/2/13.

On 5/1/13 we sold the June 11 calls for $0.40, which lowered our cost basis to $9.48.  If we are called away at $11 in late June the trade will make 16%. 

Dendreon (DNDN, $4.70, down $0.02)

August 6 calls (DNDN130817C00006000, $0.40, flat)

Original Entry Price:  $4.91 (4/2/13)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $4.36

Exit Target:  $8+

Return:  8%

Stop Target:  $2

Action:  Dendreon gained over 5% to start the week and closed above $4.50.  This level held even on Wednesday’s market pullback and will try to hold as near-term support.  Friday’s high was $4.90 and a close above $5 would be bullish for a pop to $6 over the near-term.  We believe the company is a buyout candidate in the $8-$10 range over the next 12-24 months.  A break below $4.50 would get $4 back in play.

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We recommended buying Dendreon at $4.91 on 4/2/13.  We also sold the August 6 calls for 55 cents which lowered our cost basis to $4.36.  If we are called-away at $6 in mid-August, the trade will make 38%.

Apollo Group (APOL, $17.57, up $0.11) (Short Position)

Original Entry Price:  $16.10 (3/4/13)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  None

Exit Target:  $12

Return:  -8%

Stop Target:  $20

Action:  Shares traded to a high of $18.47 on Monday and Tuesday and the chart shows strong resistance at $18.50.  A close above this level would get $20 in the picture but Thursday’s low was $17.30 and a break below $17 gets the 52-week low is $15.98 back in play.  This is our only current short position.

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We recommended shorting Apollo Group at $16.10 on 3/4/13.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX, $8.06, up $0.16)

May 9 calls (KERX130518C00009000, $0.15, up $0.05)

Original Entry Price:  $7.22 (2/12/13)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $6.72

Exit Target:  $10+

Return:  20%

Stop Target:  None

Action:  The tight trading range continues for Keryx as shares fell below $8 midweek.  The low was $7.80 and there is further risk down to $7.50 if $8 fails again.  A close above $8.50 should get $9 in play and a possible push to $10.  We wouldn’t mind writing calls every month if shares continue to stay range bound as the premiums are juicy.  Shares are on the verge of a major breakout (or breakdown).

KERX5513

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We recommended buying KERX at $7.22 on 2/12/13.

On 4/9/13 we sold the May 9 calls for 50 cents which lowered our cost basis to $6.72.  If we are called away at $9 in mid-May the trade will make us 34%.

Solazyme (SZYM, $9.16, up $0.09)

Original Entry Price:  $12.35 (8/9/12)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $11.55 

Exit Target: $15+

Return:  -21%

Stop Target:  None

Action:  Solazyme is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.  Shares trended lower to start the week and closed below $9 with the midweek back test to $8.74.  Shares recovered on Thursday to clear $9 and traded to $9.41 on Friday.  If resistance is cleared at $9.50 before the news, it would bode well for a surge past $10.  Short-term support is at $9-$8.50 followed by $8.

SZYM5513

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We recommended buying SZYM at $12.35 on 8/9/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the September 12.50 calls for 80 cents.  This lowered the cost basis to $11.55.

Scientific Games (SGMS, $9.09, up $0.25)

Original Entry Price:  $11.10 (3/20/12)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  None

Exit Target: $15

Return: -18%

Stop Target: $7

Action:  Strong support has been at $ 8 since early April and the close above $9 gives us the chance to write call options on this trade.  However, we still want to wait for a print past $10 as we are in at $11 and we like the momentum shares are showing.

SGMS5513

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Pizza Inn (PZZI, $7.79, up $0.42)

Original Entry Price:  $4.50 (2/22/12)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  No options available

Exit Target: $9

Return:  73%

Stop Target: $7 Hard Stop (Close HALF), $6 on other half

Action:  Shares traded down to $7.29 to start the week and tested $7.27 on Thursday before Friday’s 6% pop.  We have a 6-12 month target of $10+ for the stock but we will close half the trade on a dip below $7 that is serving as near-term support.  A close above $8-$8.50 should get double-digits in sight.   

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PZZI5513

We recommended buying PZZI at $4.50 on 2/22/12.

MGM ResortsInternational (MGM, $14.66, up $0.11)

May 13 calls (MGM130518C00013000, $1.70, up $0.05)

Original Entry Price:  $13.77 (2/2/12)

Lowered Price from Selling Options:  $11.30

Exit Target:  $15

Return:  30%

Stop Target:  None

Action:  We sold the May 13 calls to lower our cost basis to $11.30.  We wanted to wait for the surge to $15 before writing a call option but there was a chance shares fall to $12 on an earnings miss.  Prior resistance at $13.75 will now try to hold down the fort as support.  We can get back into MGM on a close above $15 but we wanted to lock-in profits for the Weekly as we also had a bullish position in the Daily.

MGM5513

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We recommended buying MGM at $13.77 on 2/2/2012 and for every 100 shares to sell the March 15 calls for 45 cents.  This lowered the cost basis to $13.32.

On 3/20/12 sold the April 14 calls for $0.65 which lowered the cost basis to $12.67.

On 2/13/13 sold the March 14 calls for $0.32 which lowered the cost basis to $12.35. 

On 5/1/13 we sold the May 13 calls for $1.05 which lowered our cost basis to $11.30. If we are called away at $13 the trade will make 15%.  

Trades on HOLD (7):  DryShips (DRYS, $1.89, up $0.04), AKS Steel Holding (AKS, $3.48, up $0.19), Rare Element Resources (REE, $1.84, flat), Rambus (RMBS, $7.18, up $0.23), Bebe Stores (BEBE, $5.11, down $0.21), Vivus (VVUS, $12.23, down $0.72)

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6.  Week Ahead

Ecocal5513

 

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