Momentum Trades

Bulls Brace For Dow 11,000

1:05pm (EST)   

The bulls look determined to push the market to new highs despite the skeptics who continue to call for a pullback.  We all know Greece has been a thorn in the market’s side and some of the recent volatility has caused the rally to stall, somewhat, but the bulls are still on track for another weekly win. 

The market got off to a good start but quickly reversed course after the credit rating agency Fitch lowered its rating on Greece.  As soon as that news was released, Greece’s finance minister and the head of the European Central Bank then made reassuring statements and said the euro zone reached an agreement with Greece on a bailout plan.

The bulls also got some good news when a report on wholesale inventories provided the latest positive sign on the recovering economy.  The Commerce Department said inventories rose 0.6% in February, which was better than the 0.4% that had been expected.

Sales at wholesalers also rose faster than expected, gaining 0.8%, versus calls for a 0.5% rise.  It marked the 11th straight month of rising sales.

As we head to press, the Dow is up 52 points, or 0.5%, to 10,979 after touching a low of 10,926.  The S&P 500 is rapidly approaching 1,200 and stands at 1,192, up 6 points, or 0.5%.  The Nasdaq is showing a 10 point bulge and is at 2,447, up 0.4%.

We mentioned Alcoa’s (AA, $14.45, down $0.42) will report earnings on Monday and here is what Wall Street is thinking.  There have been two downgrades on the stock in the past week with another one hitting today.  Analysts are looking for profits of 11 cents on revenue of $5.2 billion, on average.  There is a wide range of estimates, some as high as 23 cents, while one analyst has penciled in earnings of 4 cents.   

The demand for aluminum has improved but rising energy costs have a few suit-and-ties worried.

We will be watching the market closely going into the close and next week is setting up to be a classic battle between the bulls and bears.  Earnings will be the main focus but there will be plenty of tidbits for the market to digest.  We will discuss many of the events that will take place in this Sunday’s Weekly Wrap but we remain bullish and think a breakout could be around the corner.

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