| Fresh All-Time Highs Back on the Board Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts Major Market Levels Nasdaq Support To Hold: 26,250-26,000 Bullish Price To Clear: 27,000 All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1) Bearish Breakdown Levels: 25,250 (New) The Nasdaq was up 0.5% for the week with the gain for 2026 still above 15%. Thursday recovery of 26,750 finally came following a six-session range with the peak at 26,875. Continued closes above this level and the all-time high at 27,190 gets our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250 in focus. We mentioned the current Fibonacci is at 27,500 with the July 29th giving us the near-term bottom for our new uptrend channel. This candle also represents the near-term bottom on the Fibonacci chart. Several layers of support are good clues to watch before the bears are back in the game, starting at 26,250-26,000 and the 50-day moving average (25,906). Backup help is at 25,250 with a move below this level suggesting a top with weakness to 24,250-24,000 and the 200-day moving average. |
 S&P 500 Support To Hold: 7,600 Bullish Price To Clear: 7800-7,850 (New) All-Time High Level: 7,816 on Thursday Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,400 (New) The S&P was up 28 points for the week with its YTD total still north of 13%. Fresh resistance at 7,800 was cleared but held by a point on Thursday’s record run to 7,816. Closes above 7,800-7,850 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength towards 7,850-8,000. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have already mentioned the giddiness of the talking heads predicting 8,000 for the index. We think there is stretch up to 8,150, and the top of the new uptrend channel we have outlined, with the new Fibonacci chart we ran showing an extension towards 8,250. Support remains at 7,700 followed by 100-point intervals at 7,600 and 7,500 and the 50-day moving average. The bottom of the uptrend channel is at 7,400 with the July 29th low at 7,313.  Russell 2000 Support To Hold: 2,925-2,875Bullish Price To Clear: 3,050All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,048 on 8/5)Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800 The Russell added 1% for the week and has now zoomed 23% in 2026. Fresh resistance at 3,050-3,100 was cleared and held with Friday’s all-time peak reaching at 3,069. This represents a 77% move off the April 2025 low of 1,732. Our June 12th upside targets remain at 3,150-3,200. Key support has now moved up to 3,000-2,975 and the 50-day moving average followed by 2,925. There was only once close below the latter to end July and 2,925 also serves as the bottom of the new uptrend channel. The is backup help at 2,875 with a move below likely indicating a top.  Dow Jones Industrial Average Support To Hold: 53,250Bullish Price To Clear: 55,000All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000 The Dow slipped about 0.5% for the week but has rallied over 11% for the year. The close above 53,250 from the prior week represented a double-top breakout for the index, with our June 24th target at 55,000 still in focus. Closes above this level and the recent all-time high at 54,749 could lead to upside towards 56,750-57,000. Critical support remains at 53,250 followed by 52,250-52,000 and the 50-day moving average. A close below the latter levels likely leads to risk down to 51,000-50,000.  |
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50-18.50Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22 (lowered)Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 13.50-12.75 (new) The VIX has closed below 15 in four of the past six sessions with Friday’s lower low tagging 14.18. We have been repeating a more bullish development for the market would be closes below 15 with weakness towards 13.50-12.75. So far, so good. Our new and lowered warning signals are at 17-17.50 and the 50-day moving followed by closes or a move above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average. Once again, closes above 20-22 get heightened attention as it would suggest a near-term market peak. |
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Earnings and Economic News Before the open: BitFuFu (FUFU) After the close: Fabrinet (FN), Flexsteel Industries (FLXS) Economic News Empire State and NAHB Housing Commentary We adjusted the uptrend channels for the major indexes to reflect the breakout to new highs on the S&P and the Russell. The Nasdaq and the Dow are near record peaks and the bounce off the July 29th lows is now being used off the late March lows to form the bottom of the channels. The bottom of the channels also represent key support levels nestled below the 50-day moving averages. The new waves of support levels above the major indexes will also serve as warnings signals on when the Bears might be back on the prowl. The top of the uptrend channels coincide with the mid-June peaks and could be adjusted on parabolic moves higher. In the meantime, the major indexes are hovering around the middle of these current uptrend channels. The weekly chart work we do on the major indexes, and the VIX, helps us to identify major trends, trend changes and trading ranges. All of the charting helps in making our decisions on trading call (bullish) or put (bearish) options over the near-term. With the 2Q earnings season still winding down, there will be a number of companies making news throughout the week. Home Depot (HD), Baidu (BIDU), La-Z-Boy (LZB) and Toll Brothers (TOL) announce numbers on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Nordson (NDSN) and Wolfspeed (WOLF) highlight the session. WOLF has been a heavily shorted stock and TGT could be on the verge of a breakout. Thursday morning gives us Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere & Company (DE). Ross Stores (ROST) and Flowers Foods (FLO) announce after the close. And for Friday morning, BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) is the only stock we actively follow. Housing starts, the weekly unemployment numbers, and Friday’s PMI data could help or hinder the the action. As we head to press, futures are mixed. Dow futures are down 77 points but the Nasdaq futures are up 83. The S&P futures are up five points and the Russell futures are slipping two ticks. The August monthly options have 4 days from Monday’s open before expiration. September and October regular monthly options have 32 days and 60 days, respectively, before expiration. Momentum Options Alerts Update for 8/13/2026 Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 36-14 (72%, 8 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 202-64 (76% win rate) 70 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week. Text Alerts (Telegram):Velocity Options: https://t.me/+uzxYHX8YEh85MzYx Mattel (MAT, $15.03, up $0.15) Option: MAT September 15 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.50 (8/13/2026)Current Option Price: $0.70Exit Target: $1.00Return: 40%Stop Target: 51 cents (Stop Limit) Action: Set a Stop Limit at 51 cents to start protecting profits and to avoid a loss. Near-term and lower resistance at $15-$15.25 was cleared on Friday’s run to $15.05. Closes above $15.50 gets $15.75-$16.25 in focus. Support is at $14.75 and 20-day moving average. |
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AT&T (T, $24.89, up $0.31) Option: T October 26 callsExpiration Date: October 16th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.44 (8/13/2026)Current Option Price: 55 centsExit Target: $0.90Return: 25%Stop Target: 45 cents (Stop Limit) Action: Set a Stop Limit at 45 cents to start protecting profits and to avoid a loss. Key resistance at $25 was challenged and held on Friday’s trip to $24.97. Closes above this level gets $26-$27.50 in focus. Support is at $24.50-$24.25. |
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Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG, $17.84, up $0.38) Option: PCG September 22 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.33 (8/4/2026)Current Option Price: $0.21Exit Target: $0.70 (Limit Order on half)Return: -36%Stop Target: None Action: Friday’s higher high hit $17.85 with key resistance at $18 holding. Closes above this level would be a more bullish signal for a breakout towards $18.50-$19.25. Support is at $17.50-$17.25. |
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Snap (SNAP, $5.41, up $0.11) Option: SNAP September 7 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.55 (6/1/2026)Current Option Price: $0.10Exit Target: $1.10Return: -82%Stop Target: None Action: Lower resistance at $5.50-$5.75 was topped but held following the intraday pop to $5.55. Support is at $5.25-$5. This remains our longest running Alert and we still like it as long as $5 and the 50-day moving average holds going forward. If not, exit to save the remaining premium. |