| Fed Holds Steady on Rates The stock market avoided a major selloff last week following Monday’s monster rally and rebound off key support levels. Trading was mixed into the midweek Fed meeting but turned solidly bearish after the suit-and-ties left rates unchanged. Volatility also returned after the Fed failed to cut rates but closed below a key level of support following Thursday’s market rebound. The back-and-forth action will likely continue this week as geopolitical news dominated the weekend headlines. The Nasdaq ended at 26,517 (1.9%) with the high at 26,559. Key resistance at 26,750 held. Support is at 25,250. The S&P 500 made a run to 7,511 before closing at 7,500 (1.1%). Resistance at 7,500 was reclaimed. Support is at 7,400. The Dow settled at 51,570 (0.1%). Resistance at 52,000 held. Support is at 51,500. Earnings and Economic News Before the open: Fervo Energy (FRVO), Outdoor Holding (POWN) After the close: None Economic News None Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts For the week, the Nasdaq was up over 2% while the Russell and the S&P 500 added 1%. The Dow gained 0.6%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has rallied 15% and the S&P is jumped 10%. The Dow has advanced 6% and the Russell has zoomed 20% this year. The Nasdaq hit a high of 26,559 on Thursday. The index is holding a four-session range with key resistance at 26,750. Closes above this level gets 27,000 and the June 1st record peak at 27,190 back in the mix. We have highlighted near-term upside to 28,000-28,250 on continued closes above these levels. Support is at 26,250-26,000. Closes below the latter would suggest a retest to 25,500-25,250 and the 50-day moving average.  The S&P 500 has a new battleground at 7,500. In mid-May, we predicted strength towards 7,600-7,750 with the June 2nd all-time peak hit 7,620. These targets remain in play on continued closes above 7,500. Key support is at 7,400 with backup help at 7,350. Closes below 7,225 would be a bearish development with risk down to 7,150-7,100.  The Russell hit a fresh all-time high at 2,996 on Monday with our April 17th upside targets at 2,900-3,000. We said closes above the latter could lead to a fresh breakout towards 3,150-3,100. Fresh support is at 2,925 with additional help at 2,900-2,875. A drop below the latter gets 2,800 and the 50-day moving average back in focus.  The Dow traded up to 52,286 midweek with our April 17th Price Targets at 52,000-53,000. The former was cleared and held on Tuesday. The latter remains in play on continued closes above 52,000. Support is at 51,500-51,000. Backup is at 50,000 with closes below this level and out of the readjusted uptrend channel from May 20th being a slightly bearish development. |
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The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed back below the 17.50 level on Monday with Tuesday’s weekly low at 15.98. Key support at 15 easily held. We have been predicting a death-cross and lower lows on the VIX since mid-April and said the VIX could stall at 15 during the first-quarter earnings season. Bingo. We are now approaching the second-quarter earnings season and it will be imperative the VIX gets below 15 while pushing 13.50 at some point in June or July. Any closes above 17.50-20 should be considered yellow lights. We have warned closes above 22-24 would be a bearish signal for the market with upside towards 30-31.50. |
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As far as the technical setups for the indexes, we readjusted the uptrend channel on the Dow off the May 20th low following the breakout to fresh all-time highs. The Russell’s uptrend channel was readjusted the prior week. We talked about the blue-chips and the small-caps leading the next leg higher (along with the Financial sector) during possible weakness to start June. That outlook played out beautifully and we have talked about the numerous layers of support the bears have to cut through to stall the bulls momentum. Yes, we know the market is overbought and overvalued but we have been telling you since May the market can stay this way for weeks, and perhaps months. While the talking heads and retail sentiment remains hesitant and afraid because of those reasons, we said the charts and the VIX would guide us through the chaos. That has always been the case and is why we do the daily homework. The Financial sector has been showing strength this month with Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) at all-time highs. The regional banks are also showing strength and the Financial Sector Spider (XLF) cleared its February highs last week. If XLF can make continued closes above $54.50, it would be an added bullish signal for the market as it shows sector rotation happening. |
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We wouldn’t be surprised to see a rangebound market with possible higher highs into earnings season, or the second week of July, and when we believe the next MAJOR trend could start occur. It is important to remember the bulls tend to take the stair higher while the bears prefer the elevator. We mentioned in our opening remarks, geopolitical news over the ceasefire deal could continue to add to the volatility. Oil prices have recently plunged but could bubble up again depending on the action. Futures are showing a slightly lower open for Monday’s open. Dow futures are down 152 points and the Nasdaq futures are off 117 as we head to press. The S&P futures are slipping 13 ticks and the Russell futures are down 20 points. Momentum Options Alerts Update for 6/22/2026 Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 29-7 (81%, 8 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 195-55 (78% win rate) 70 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week. Text Alerts (Telegram):Velocity Options: https://t.me/+uzxYHX8YEh85MzYx Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF, $12.28, down $0.40) Option: CLF July 16 callsExpiration Date: July 17th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.45 (6/11/2026)Current Option Price: $0.15Exit Target: $0.90Return: -67%Stop Target: Exit if shares fall below $11 Action: Key support remains at $12. Lowered resistance is at $12.75-$13. A golden cross remains in play but last week’s price action was disappointing. We want to give this Alert some wiggle but we will likely exit if shares fall below $11. |
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Snap (SNAP, $4.66, down $0.08) Option: SNAP September 7 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.55 (6/1/2026)Current Option Price: $0.20Exit Target: $1.10Return: -64%Stop Target: None Action: Thursday’s low hit $4.63 with upper support at $4.50-$4.25 holding. Resistance is at $5-$5.25. We said we liked this Alert as long as $4.50 holds going forward. The September options have nearly three days before expiration so we are likely going to let this one ride over the summer. We don’t have a Stop Limit in place and we will reevaluate the Alert if shares do fall below $4.50. Since 2023, we are 11-0 doing covered calls on SNAP and 8-2 doing directional Alerts, calls and puts. Wall Street has a love/ hate relationship with the stock because revenue is always solid, but earnings are erratic and why it remains in the single-digits. However, we love it as SNAP is a great stock to trade in various ways. The company announced it will selling some expensive AI glasses to the tune of $2,195 so let’s see how this interesting story unfolds. |
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Rocket Companies (RKT, $14.42, up $1.20) Option: RKT July 17 callsExpiration Date: July 17th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.50 (5/26/2026)Current Option Price: $0.30Exit Target: $1.00Return: -40%Stop Target: None Action: Key resistance at $14.50 and the 50-day moving average held on the 9% surge to $14.46. Support is at $13.50-$13.25. |
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