MomentumOptions.com Pre-Market Update for 8/11/2025
Nasdaq Sets Fresh Record High
* For the week, the Nasdaq surged 3.9% and the S&P rallied 2.4%. The Dow was up 1.3% while the Russell soared 2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has jumped 11.1% and the S&P has added 8.6%. The Dow is higher by 3.8% and the Russell is down a dozen points for 2025.
* There is a chance 13.50-12.75 comes into focus on the VIX if the bulls do get multiple closes below 15. It is important to note, there has only been three closes below this level all year with the most recent coming on July 25th at 14.93.
* The July 16th intraday support levels for the major indexes are at Nasdaq 20,500; S&P 6,200; Dow 44,000 and Russell 2,175. The Dow’s key support level has moved down to 43,250 and continue to use these as clues on when the bears will finally take control of the market. If all these levels are breached, the VIX will likely be above 20-22.50.
The bulls capped a bullish week with Friday’s gains keeping fresh 52-week and all-time highs in focus. The rebound follows the previous Friday’s mini selloff as investors quickly swopped in to buy the dip.
The Nasdaq tagged an all-time high of 21,464 before finishing at 21,450 (+1%). Key resistance at 21,500 held. Support is at 21,000.
The S&P 500 settled at 6,389 (+0.8%) with the intraday high hitting 6,395. Resistance at 6,400 held. Support is at 6,300.
The Dow made a run to 44,272 before ending at 44,175 (+0.5%). Resistance at 44,500 easily held. Shaky support is at 44,000.
Earnings and Economic News
Before the open: Barrick Mining (B), Excelerate Energy (EE), L.B. Foster (FSTR), WW International (WW)
After the close: BigBear.ai (BBAI), GoPro (GPRO), Oklo (OKLO), Plug Power (PLUG)
Economic News
None
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
For the week, the Nasdaq surged 3.9% and the S&P rallied 2.4%. The Dow was up 1.3% while the Russell soared 2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has jumped 11.1% and the S&P has added 8.6%. The Dow is higher by 3.8% and the Russell is down a dozen points for 2025.
The (RSI) relative strength index levels for the Nasdaq and the S&P fell to 50 and 48 on the previous Friday pullback and held right at the neutral level. We mentioned coming into last week we didn’t think oversold levels would be in play for long, if they were coming, as there was a pile of cash on the sidelines waiting to be deployed.
We didn’t think it would happen that quickly but we said investors and traders that might have missed the v-shape recovery off the early April lows would be anxious. With all-time highs once again in play, the RSI levels for the Nasdaq and the S&P closed at 67 and 65, respectively.
As a reminder for new subscribers, overbought territory is at 70+ and we have been highlighting since late June and in mid-July these overextended levels in the Nasdaq and the S&P. With continued strength this week, both indexes could clear 70 again.
The RSI levels for the Dow and the Russell are just above 50 after falling below this level the previous Friday. The lows from that session held 40 with the 30 level being oversold. When lower lows do come into play, this will be a good reminder to wait for the RSI levels to crack 40 to confirm ongoing selling pressure for the blue-chips and small-caps.
The Nasdaq tested an all-time high of 21,464 on Friday and came within 36 points of tagging our summertime target at 21,500. Our January 22nd target prediction for the Nasdaq is at 22,000 by yearend. There is a chance 23,000-23,250 comes into play if 22,000 is cleared during the Fall season.
Current support is at 21,250-21,000. A close below the latter (and an adjusted uptrend channel) will likely lead to a further fade down to 20,500 and the 50-day moving average. Closes below these two levels would likely confirm a near-term peak.
The S&P 500 came within 32 points of a fresh lifetime high after stalling at 6,395. Closes above 6,400 and the July 31st record top at 6,427 gets our February upper price target at 6,500 in focus for the index. There is a chance for stretch up to 6,700-6,750 if 6,500 clears.
Key support is at 6,350 and an adjusted uptrend channel off the August 1st low. There is stretch down to 6,300-6,250 if breached with a close below 6,200 and the 50-day moving average likely confirming a possible near-term top for the index.
After rebounding 2% last Monday, the Russell 2000 has been holding a tight range just below 2,225. A close above this level and last Thursday’s intraday peak at 2,243 should get 2,275 back in the picture. A breakout towards 2,300-2,375 could be in the mix if 2,275 and the July 23rd high at 2,283 clear. If not, and 2,275 holds all month, a near-term top is likely in the books.
Support is at 2,200-2,175 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages that recently formed a golden cross. An adjusted uptrend channel off the previous Friday’s low at 2,143 would possibly indicate a near-term top with further risk down to 2,135-2,075.
The Dow recovered 44,000 last Monday but struggled making higher highs while holding this level into the weekend. Backup support is at 43,500-43,250 and the 50-day moving average. A drop below the latter and out of an adjusted uptrend channel, the August 1st low at 43,340, and the 200-day moving average just below 43,000 would certainly be a bearish development.
Key resistance remains at 45,000 with the July 23rd intraday peak at 45,016 and the all-time top from December 4th at 45,073. There is breakout potential to 47,250-50,000 if these levels are taken out with the latter representing our February 23rd yearend price target for the index.
The Volatility Index (VIX) is once again testing 15 after closing on Friday’s low at 15.15. On July 4th, we predicted weakness down to 15-14.50 during earnings season with the market peaking at some point in August. The VIX tagged 14.70 on July 29th and 14.74 on July 31st to split our near-term target.
There is a chance 13.50-12.75 comes into focus on the VIX if the bulls do get multiple closes below 15. It is important to note, there has only been three closes below this level all year with the most recent coming on July 25th at 14.93.
On the flip side, we said the bears needed to clear and hold 20 for multiple sessions to likely confirm near-term tops for the major indexes. Monday’s close back below 20 was a clear indication fresh money was coming into the market.
The July 16th intraday support levels for the major indexes are at Nasdaq 20,500; S&P 6,200; Dow 44,000 and Russell 2,175. The Dow’s key support level has moved down to 43,250 and continue to use these as clues on when the bears will finally take control of the market. If all these levels are breached, the VIX will likely be above 20-22.50.
Momentum Options Alerts Update
Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2025: 37-11 (77%, 14 triple-digit winners) / 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners). Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.
ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO, $21.09, down $0.23)
Option: BITO September 25 calls
Expiration Date: September 19th
Entry Option Price: $0.37 (7/17/2025)
Current Option Price: $0.13
Exit Target: $0.75
Return: -65%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares have popped out of a previous tight 4-session range with Friday’s high at $21.27. A close above resistance at $21.50 could lead to a quick trip up to $22 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Support is at $20.50 with backup help at $20.
AT&T (T, $28.08, up $0.02)
Option: T August 30 calls
Expiration Date: August 15th
Entry Option Price: $0.40 (6/20/2025)
Current Option Price: $0.04
Exit Target: $0.80
Return: -90%
Stop Target: None
Action: Key resistance at $28 and the 50-day moving average were cleared and held on Thursday. Shaky support remains at $27.25-$27.
This is the last Alert from our previous batch back in June with the portfolio now on a seven-straight Alert winning streak since. We are still hopeful shares can make a move on continued closes above $28 but these options expire Friday.