MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 9/8/13
11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) Showing Strong Momentum
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
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1. Market Summary
“The President’s move to throw back his “red line” stance on Syria may have looked good politically but it was seen as a coward way of backing out of a situation he created with his off-the-cuff remarks last year. We aren’t sure what Mitt Romney is thinking but it is clear Obama took the easy way out after he put his foot in his mouth and used the other one to kick the decision back to Congress. Nice punt, Obama.
The zombies are unlikely to approve a strike as we don’t believe they will have the votes to do so and the President can then blame it on someone else like he always does. Obama can say he tried but he didn’t offer to bring the zombies in for an emergency vote over the weekend when there are 3 airports in and around the DC area and he has made America look pretty silly on foreign affairs because nothing has been planned since those red line words were spoken.
To complicate matters, we really can’t see how all of the decisions are going to be made within the short time frame given. The zombies are still on vacations as members of the House aren’t expected back until September 9 ,or NEXT Monday after having all of August off. Must be nice.
As far as the market, we are expecting a snap-back rally on Tuesday after the news to delay a strike on Syria. It may be short-lived as traders sell into strength because a lot of unknowns will still exist but if resistance is cleared, the market could drift higher throughout the week and back to the top of the trading ranges.
The uncertainty could also benefit the bulls as the indexes remain in a trading range but the bottom of the ranges are the June lows and we have warned of them coming into play on continued weakness. As a reminder, the June lows are: Dow 14,551; S&P 1,560; Nasdaq 3,294; Russell 940. The high for the VIX in June reached 18.58.
The main clues we will be watching for this week is how the VIX trades, if the small-caps hold or clear 1,000-1,025 and the Nasdaq’s 50-day MA. We still need to be careful when trading directional options for the Daily because trading ranges hurt premiums. As far as our Weekly Wrap, we closed positions throughout August because we expected the trading ranges to continue but we are building a nice Wish List for our next batch of trades. If there is further weakness, we could have new short positions along with put options as we are likely to sell some of our remaining call positions into strength this week. However, if the bulls clear a few layers of resistance, there could be another opportunity to go long again.” (from 9/2/2013 Weekly Wrap…)
The bulls were cruising throughout the week going into Friday’s session before some “old school” volatility picked up that took the market on a wild ride. The price action swung nearly 2% shortly after the open and when the dust settled it ended up being a flat session.
The bears were due for a rest following the attack in August and we mentioned the start of September could be bullish through next week. We will go into more detail in our commentary below on how we see the next month or so playing out but one thing is for certain, volatility could be extreme and as option traders, the next 2 months will be a Super Bowl. (read more…)
The Dow dipped 15 points, or 0.1%, to close at 14,922 on Friday. The blue-chips pushed resistance at 15,000 on the open but fell a staggering 200+ points to 14,789 within the first hour of trading. Support at 14,800 was tested but the index recovered to push 15,000 again after reaching a peak of 15,009. The low for the week checked in at 14,777 on Tuesday’s open. The bulls should be able to push 15,200 by midweek once 15K is cleared and could position themselves in between the 50-day and 100-day MA’s. From there it will be important for them to hold the next wave of resistance. If so, a run to new highs could come. If not, the Dow could easily retest 14,800 with a negative Monday open and a close below this level could lead to 14,600-14,400-14,350 For the week, the Dow was up 112 points, or 0.8%, after coming in at 14,810. For the year, the blue-chips have advanced 1,818 points, or 13.9%.
The S&P 500 added a tenth of a point, or 0.01%, to settle at 1,655. The index traded to a high of 1,651 on Tuesday but failed to hold resistance at 1,650 after the morning surge. The bulls did hold positive territory but the low checked-in at 1,633 and it was the fourth consecutive close below the 100-day MA (moving average). This changed with Wednesday’s pop to 1,655 and close at 1,653. This set the bulls up for a run at 1,675 and Friday’s high was 1,664 before the elevator dropped to 1,640 and the 100-day MA. The break back below support is a reminder how quickly the bears can still push 1,625-1,600 in a hurry. A close below these levels would be bearish. If the bulls can clear the 50-day MA and then 1,675, expect 1,700 to come into play again. The S&P 500 came into Tuesday’s session near 1,633 and was up a double-deuce (22 points), or 1.4%, for the week. Year-to-date, the index has gained 229 points, or 16.1%.
The Nasdaq gained a point, or 0.03%, to finish at 3,660. Tech was a bright spot as it held positive territory all week long and made higher highs into Friday. The troublesome part for the bulls is that Friday’s dip to 3,618 keeps 3,600 and the 50-day MA in the mix. This level has been a brick wall for the bears but they have made some cracks in it and could push 3,550-3,500 (100-day MA) this week on a close below 3,600-3,575. The bulls need to conquer 3,675 as they work their way back to 3,700 and new 52-week highs and did kiss 3,677 on Friday with a positive close. The Nasdaq began the week at 3,589.87 and jumped 70 points, or 2%, by Friday’s closing bell. For 2013, Tech has zoomed 641 points, or 21.2%.
The Russell 2000 advanced a point, or 0.08%, to end at 1,029.55 on Friday. The small-caps pushed the first wave of resistance at 1,025 and kissed 1,026 on Tuesday but also dipped to 1,009 late in the day. The index did clear this level with Wednesday’s close at 1,025.58 but we mentioned 1,040 and the 50-day MA would be the next hurdles with the brick wall for the bulls at 1,050. If these levels are cleared a run to all-times north of 1,063 could trigger but if 1,025 fails to hold, look out below. Friday’s high of 1,034.77 was a nice try by the bulls but the low of 1,015.72 nearly matched Wednesday’s low of 1,015.69. A close below 1,015 would suggest 1,000 back on the bears’ radar. The 100-day MA is at 999. The Russell 2000 was at 1,010.90 before Tuesday’s open and was up nearly 19 points, or 1.8%, for the week. YTD, the small-caps are up 180 points, or 21.2% – just like the Nasdaq.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.85, up 0.08) came into the week at 17.01 and traded up to 17.37 on Tuesday’s open but tested a low of 15.17 on Friday. The bulls have been trying to get the VIX below 15 while the bears need a close above 17.50. Friday’s high of 16.81 represented a 10% swing from low to high and once support or resistance is cleared, the next trend should develop. It’s that simple.
The market made it through one of September’s major events following the release of Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report. Although the gain of 169,000 jobs for August was 7,000 ahead of expectations, we mentioned the lower revisions to the June and July numbers. What we didn’t mention is that the 3-month average is now under 150,000 and well below what the Zombies said they needed to see before cutting back on Quantitative Easing (QE).
Ben Bernanke and the Fed Heads have said they want to see and unemployment rate of 6.5% and sustained job growth of 200,000 before cutting back on QE. The unemployment rate fell from 7.4% to 7.3% but this is deceptive as more and more people drop out of the labor force.
The numbers for July job growth were lowered by 58,000 to only a net of 105,000 added. Needless to say, the Zombies are seeing the unemployment rate drop but for the wrong reasons with less jobs being added. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.2% in August and is at its lowest level since 1978.
This picture keeps QE on through yearend and into 2014 so any September tapering could already be factored into the market. We have repeatedly said that we do not expect the Fed to cut back on its bond purchases in September but there is a ton of pressure to trim $10-$20 billion off the $85 billion a month budget.
There will be more clarity next week with the September FOMC meeting and Fed speak afterwards and is another upcoming headline risk event.
This week will be all about Syria and we will try to keep this one short because no one knows what will happen until a strike does occur. There are too many what if’s to list but the main one is how the market reacted to Russia’s role.
Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, rattled Wall Street on Friday when he said he would stand by Syria if the U.S. launched a military strike against the country. His comments were seen as fighting words but the market recovered after they were clarified. Instead of a possible battleship game at sea with the U.S. as feared, Russia said it would supply Syria with advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems.
There are 3 Russian ships that are nestled off the Syrian coast with a fourth vessel, carrying a “special cargo”, in route to the area. Russia has been Syria’s biggest arms supplier and with tensions running high, anything can happen.
President Obama will be addressing the nation on Tuesday to gain more support for a strike on Syria. The zombies will be briefed Monday night and a vote should come by the end of the week. We have gone on record saying there will not be enough votes and Obama has gone to the mic to say he doesn’t need approval.
Our thoughts is that it is too late to strike Syria now and the best bet is to wait for another chemical attack that will likely happen either way. The recent “red line” episode wasn’t the first and won’t be the last. After the vote on Syria, expect the debt ceiling debate to take center stage and something we will cover more in-depth next week.
The geopolitical rhetoric will be market moving events but we will trust the technical charts and indicators instead of wondering what the zombies will do. However, we cannot stress enough how volatile the market could become this month and next.
Earnings are still trickling in as off cycle companies wrap up their reports with others starting to prepare for October’s third-quarter releases. It will be an important season as full-year guidance comes into play and 2014 outlooks.
As far as specific stocks, Apple (AAPL, $498.22, up $2.95) will be a major player in moving the indexes as it will showcase some new products on Tuesday. They could also announce a new China deal with a major carrier that could easily generate 100-150 million users at the drop of a hat.
We have heard of new colors for the upgraded iPhones as gold, silver and red could be the new flavors of choice with a thumbprint signature to activate instead of the painful slide Samsung has made fun of. We also expect cheaper iPhones, an upgraded iPad announcement, along with a newer version of its Apple TV.
Shares have been on the move of late and have been dancing with the $500 level after a low of $386 in July, $380 in May This could be a classic buy the rumor, sell the news event as a few analysts have started to upgrade the price targets for the stock north of $600. However, this could also be a breakout event if Apple drops hints of future projects. If so, we could see a run to $525-$550 on a close above $510.
We will also be watching some of the major stocks of the Dow, including International Business Machines (IBM, $183.03, down $1.12) and Caterpillar (CAT, $83.39, up $0.44) for clues of a Dow decline below support. IBM is the leading Dow component and makes up 11.4% of the index. Cat is second at 6.6%. Together they make up nearly 18% of the blue-chips.
IBM has been testing 52-week lows and could drop to $175 on a break below $181:
We have traded CAT off and on throughout the years as both bullish and bearish positions and this year it has been mostly bearish. Shares could fall into the $70’s on a close below $81.50:
The 3 aforementioned stocks (AAPL, IBM, CAT) should be watched this week along with the Monday and Friday closes on the Dow. The bulls got a break last Monday as the market was closed but Tuesday was an up day. Friday was a down day and has been mixed in recent weeks.
The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) reached a peak of 2.98% last week and the fear is once 3% triggers, money will pour out of stocks and into bonds. The Fed could take advantage of this situation and announce a small taper cut for now and say another one wouldn’t seem likely until 2014. This would be bullish but the FOMC announcement isn’t until next week and by then the Fed could be too late to stop a 3% print.
As far as our positions, we have bullish and bearish positions in both our Daily and Weekly Wrap portfolios and our hope is to cash out a few more trades on a rally through Wednesday to the top of the trading ranges before a possible back test to support.
As we head to press, futures look like this: Dow futures are up 39 points to 14,948 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 5 points to 1,658. The Nasdaq 100 futures are advancing 13 points to 3,142.
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2. NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) Showing Strong Momentum
By Michael Bryant
NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP, $27.60, down $0.11) has had quite a year and made a fresh 52-week high last week.
Founded in 1986, the company was an expansion of Dr. Hunter Jackson and Dr. Thomas Parks’ research on the potential medical benefits of spider venom at the University of Utah’s School of Medicine. Initially based in Salt Lake City, NPS (short for Natural Product Sciences) Pharmaceuticals focused on calcium channel blockers which led to corporate collaborations in 1987 with Pfizer (PFE) and in 1988 with FMC Corporation (FMC).
Concentration of calcium ions (Ca2+) is normally much higher outside of cells than inside. Channels in the membrane of some cells open and close to direct the flow of Ca2+, regulating processes such as blood clotting, nerve and muscle excitability, and proper bone formation. Calcium channel blockers prevent or reduce the opening of these channels. They are used as medications to decrease high blood pressure in patients with hypertension, to slow a fast heart rate, to relax and widen blood vessels, and to reduce chest pain generally due to obstruction or spasm of the coronary arteries. One type of calcium channel blocker is used to prevent migraine, and another one is used as a powerful painkiller.
Although the company’s work with spider venom did not produce viable new drug candidates, it led to collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in 1993 to develop calcilytic compounds to treat osteoporosis. Calcium phosphate hardens the bone as it continually regenerates. If blood phosphate levels get high, calcium levels get low, and vice versa. Calcilytic compounds inhibit calcium receptor activity and stimulate the secretion of parathyroid hormone (PTH) from the parathyroid glands. In bone tissues, PTH enhances the release of calcium stored in bones. Thus, calcium in the blood is increased. Daily administration of such compounds to rats stimulated new bone formation and increased bone mineral density.
On May 26, 1994, NPS Pharmaceuticals offered 2.0 million shares to the public at $5.50 per share and began trading on the Nasdaq. The offering was below the 2.5 million shares expected to be offered in the IPO.
In 1995 and 1996, it signed agreements with Kyowa Hakko Kirin (previously Kirin Pharma) and Amgen respectively to develop cinacalcet as a treatment for hyperparathyroidism, a condition which affects many dialysis patients. Hyperparathyroidism is overactivity of the parathyroid glands resulting in excess production of PTH. This leads to too much calcium in the blood, which is harmful to the body. Cinacalcet works by making parathyroid cells more sensitive to calcium. This makes them less likely to secrete PTH, which in turn lowers calcium levels. Cinacalcet HCl became the company’s first commercial product after it was approved in 2004 in the United States and Europe, where it is marketed by Amgen under the brand names Sensipar and Mimpara respectively. It was approved in Japan in 2007, where it is marketed by Kyowa Hakko Kirin under the brand name Regpara.
In the United States, about 100,000 people develop primary hyperparathyroidism each year. The disorder is diagnosed most often in people between age 50 and 60, and women are affected about three times as often as men. Primary hyperparathyroidism is a disorder of the parathyroid glands, where one of the glands releases too much parathyroid hormone (PTH). Secondary hyperparathyroidism can occur if a problem such as kidney failure causes the parathyroid glands to be overactive.
In 1999, the company acquired Canadian-based Allelix Biopharmaceuticals, adding two new clinical projects to its portfolio: a potential treatment for osteoporosis with recombinant human parathyroid hormone 1-84, and a potential treatment for gastrointestinal disorders with an analog of GLP-2. Recombinant human parathyroid hormone (1-84), a polypeptide containing 84 amino acids, increases bone mass and strength and improves bone quality by stimulating new bone formation. Glucagon-like peptide-2 (GLP-2), known as teduglutide, is a short chain of amino acids involved in the repair and maintenance of the gastrointestinal tract, generally the stomach and intestine.
In 2003, NPS Pharmaceuticals opened a commercial office in New Jersey. Parathyroid hormone was studied for osteoporosis in post-menopausal women and teduglutide was studied for in short bowel syndrome.
In 2004, it collaborated with Swiss-based Nycomed to expand its parathyroid hormone in Europe, where the drug was launched as Preotact in 2006 as a treatment for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Takeda Pharmaceuticals of Japan acquired Nycomed in 2011.
Today, since NPS Pharmaceuticals focuses on drugs to treat rare gastrointestinal and endocrine disorders, it can receive orphan drug status. Orphan drugs, which are specifically designed to treat rare diseases, are given fast track for market approval and extended exclusivity in the United States and European Union (EU). The Orphan Drug Act of January 1983, meant to encourage pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs for diseases that have a small market, says that companies that develop a drug for a disorder affecting fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S. may sell it without competition for seven years and may get clinical trial tax incentives. The EU gives orphan drugs marketing exclusivity for 10 years after approval.
That means Gattex (teduglutide [rDNA origin]), which was approved by the FDA on December 21, 2011, can have exclusivity until the end of 2018. The company priced the drug at $295,000 annually. Short bowel syndrome, or SBS, is a condition in which the body is unable to absorb enough nutrients and/or fluids through the gastrointestinal tract. SBS typically occurs in people who have had a significant portion of their small intestine surgically removed because of Crohn’s disease, ischemia, cancer or other conditions. Adult short bowel syndrome affects an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 patients in the United States. The company has set peak sales expectations of $350 million. But doing $295,000 times 10,000 to 15,000 gives $2.950 billion to $4.425 billion. So given the expected peak sales, the company only expects to capture about 11% of the U.S. market, not a very hard task.
Gattex works by repairing the intestinal tract, and it could be used to treat other gastrointestinal disorders like Crohn’s Disease, which affects about 500,000 people in North America. In fact, Gattex, a recombinant analog of teduglutide, is in phase II trials. Crohn’s Disease is a type of gastrointestinal disorder where the immune system attacks parts of the digestive tract. It mainly affects people who are relatively young, between the ages of 15 and 35.
The company plans to launch the drug in Europe in the first half of next year under the brand name Revestive.
NPS Pharmaceuticals expects to submit an application to the FDA later this year for Natpara (recombinant human parathyroid hormone (rhPTH (1-84)) for adult hypoparathyroidism. About 100,000 people in the United States are believed to develop hypoparathyroidism each year. The company says peak sales could hit $250 million annually if the drug is approved. Since there are very few drugs on the market to treat this disease, we assume the drug takes 90% of the market. That means in order to hit the $250 million annual sales target, the price of the drug needs to be about $2,800 a year, relatively inexpensive for a rare disease.
But Natpara is already selling in Europe as a treatment for osteoporosis and the company receives royalties under a license agreement with Takeda Pharmaceuticals. In addition, the company has a few more early-stage product candidates and receives royalties from sales of products licensed to and marketed by other companies, as shown below.
On May 28, 2013, the company sold 6,900,000 shares at the public offering price of $14.53 per share.
NPS Pharmaceuticals recently passed S&P 500 component Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in market capitalization. So will the index replace AMD with NPSP? If the index does, this could force fund managers who track the index to buy the stock, boosting the price even higher.
On Monday, September 9th, the company presents at the Morgan Stanley 2013 Global Healthcare Conference in New York at 11:45 a.m. ET. The webcast can be listened to live in the investors section of the company’s website under calendars. http://www.npsp.com/calendar
Earnings are due out on Friday, November 8th after the bell. Analysts estimate the company will earn -$0.01 per share on $38.38 million. Analysts also expect the company to turn a profit in the 4th quarter. As shown in the graphs below, analysts’ revenue estimates seem easily attainable from previous quarter. But the earnings estimate may be hard to meet.
NPS Pharmaceuticals could also be an attractive takeover target given that it already has a drug on the market, an attractive pipeline, and total potential sales well in excess of a billion dollars. Remember, many Big Pharma players like Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) are losing patents on their blockbuster drugs and will be hunting for buyouts.
We mentioned the chart for NPSP was a thing of beauty when we recommended LEAP options on the stock. As you will see below in our Portfolio update, we were all over a possible run to $30 and we have a 6-month Price Target north of $35 for the stock.
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3. Earnings
The companies in BOLD, we are looking at as possible trades and we may list call or put options on them in our Daily Newsletter. If they become official recommendations, we sent out Trade Alerts or include them in our 9am and 1pm updates that come out during the week (Quotes are from 9/6/13 close)
By Catherine Tierney
Monday
CVGW, CASY, CBAK, DQ, Diamonf Foods (DMND, $22.31, up $0.21) possible call options, DCIN, EPM, Farmer Brother’s (FARM, $13.77, up $0.23), Five Below (FIVE, $39.49, up $0.39) possible calls, FEIM, FLOW, FULL, HITK, HOV, IRET, PANW, PBY, PPHN, PVH, RTI, STEI, WPCS
Tuesday
AEPI, CBK, CWTR, LCI, NTSC, Oxford Industries (OXM, $63.94, down $0.23) bullish, Restoration Hardware (RH, $74.62, up $2.74) calls/ puts, UNIS
Wednesday
ASNA, CEDU, Men’s Warehouse (MW, $38.19, down $0.22) calls/ puts, OSN, Vera Bradley (VRA, $19.13, down $0.51) near 52-week lows – possible put options
Thursday
Analogic (ALOG, $75.85, down $0.83), Brady (BRC, $32.27, flat), CHKE, CNSI, Kroger (KR, $37.40, up $0.05), LFVN, Lululwmon Athletica (LULU, $69.49, down $0.43) possible bullish play, MBII, RFIL, Ulta Salon (ULTA, $x), United Natural Foods (UNFI, $59.03, down $0.85) possible call options
Friday
CMRO, LTON, OPTT
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4. Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio Update (Closing prices as of 9/6/13)
Our Weekly Wrap Closed Trade Track Record for 2013 is 33-3 (77-5, overall since the start of 2011).
Annaly Capital Management (NLY, $11.78, up $0.30)
Original Entry Price: $11.70 (9/6/13)
Lowered Price from Selling Options/ Dividends: $11.70
Exit Target: $15
Return: 1%
Stop Target: $8
Action: Near-term support is $11.25 and the close above $11.75 was bullish on Friday. We believe shares will recover to the mid-teens over the next 6-12 months. The current yield on the stock is 13.7%. The quarterly dividend payment is at 40 cents and should be paid this month.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD, $18.67, down $0.15) Short Position
Original Entry Price: $18.92 (9/4/13)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: None
Exit Target: $16
Return: 1%
Stop Target: $22
Action: Shares were north of $23 before the company reported terrible earnings and we had a feeling a drop below $20 was coming. We mentioned there was a “gap” to fill at $16 once $20 tripped and our near-term target is $15. Resistance is at $20 and our Stop Target is at $22.
NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP, $27.60, down $0.11) LEAP Option
January 31 calls (NPSP140118C00031000, $2.15, flat)
Original Entry Price: $1.40 (8/29/13)
Exit Target: $2.80
Return: 54%
Stop Target: $0.70
Action: Shares reached a 52-week high of $26.61 last Wednesday and pushed $28.18 on Thursday. Friday’s peak checked-in at $28.05. We believe shares can trade well north of $30 by the end of the year and at $34 the trade would be at least a double. Support is at $24.
Galena Biopharma (GALE, $2.38, up $0.01)
Original Entry Price: $2.12 (7/8/13)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $2.12
Exit Target: $5
Return: 12%
Stop Target: $1
Action: Shares made a push to $2.39 and tested this level throughout the week. A close above $2.50 should lead to a run to $2.75. The 52-week high is at $3. Support is at $2.20.
Exact Sciences (EXAS, $12.30, down $0.01)
Original Entry Price: $13.55 (6/11/13)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $13
Exit Target: $16+
Return: -5%
Stop Target: $10, raise to $10.45
Action: We mentioned a close back above $12 and the 100-day MA would be bullish. Shares reached $12.12 Wednesday and $12.46 on Thursday. Friday’s high of $12.49 fell a penny short of resistance. A close above this level could lead to a run back to $13 and where we would like to sell another call option. Support is at $11.50.
We recommended buying Exact Sciences at $13.55 on 6/11/13. On 7/11/13 we sold the August 15 calls for 55 cents which lowered our cost basis to $13.
Pizza Inn Holdings (PZZI, $7.31, down $0.13)
Original Entry Price: $5.40 (6/11/13)
Lowered Price from Selling Options: $5.40 (no options available)
Exit Target: $10+
Return: 35%
Stop Target: $6.95 (Hard Stop)
Action: The stock pushed resistance at $7.50 to start the week and a close above this level should get $8 in play. Support has been solid at $7 and shares are building a nice base at this level. A close below this level would force us out of the trade and we wouldn’t mind as we could get back in at lower prices, or $6.50.
Trades on HOLD (7): DryShips (DRYS, $2.88, up $0.12), AKS Steel Holding (AKS, $3.46, up $0.05), Rare Element Resources (REE, $2.03, down $0.04), Rambus (RMBS, $8.84, down $0.14), Bebe Stores (BEBE, $5.64, up $0.34), Vivus (VVUS, $10.96, up $0.12), Dendreon (DNDN, $2.88, up $0.03),
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5. Week Ahead
Here is a chart of the events for the week ahead:
