Shaky Support Holds for 2nd-Straight Week
The stock market got some good economic news on Friday and throughout the week but resistance held strong thru Wednesday. Thursday’s action was bearish and pushed the prior week’s shaky support levels back in play while Friday’s slightly bullish action once again avoided a major market meltdown.
The Nasdaq finished at 22,546 (-0.2%) after testing a low of 22,402. Key support at 22,500 was breached but held. Resistance is at 23,250.
The S&P 500 tagged a low of 6,794 while settling slightly higher at 6,836 (0.05%). Support at 6,800 held. Lowered resistance is at 6,900.
The Dow closed at 49,500 (0.1%) with the high at 49,743. Prior and key resistance at 49,600 was cleared but held. Support is at 49,000.
Earnings and Economic News for Tuesday
Before the open: Medtronic (MDT)
After the close: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Devon Energy (DV)
Economic News
Empire State – 8:30am
Home Builder Confidence – 10am
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
For the week, the Nasdaq and the Russell dropped 2.1%. The S&P 500 declined 1.4% and Dow was down 1.2%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is now down 3% and the S&P is off by 0.1%. The Dow is up 3% and the Russell has gained 6% for 2026.
The S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq last week by giving up it 2026 gains and turning red for the year. Granted, the index is only down 9 points, but it shows the bears are trying to mount some momentum. The other slightly bearish development from last week is the fact volatility closed above 20 for the second-straight session.
As far as the S&P 500, the index remains in a 200-point and 38-session range between 6,800-7,000 following the close just above support the former. Multiple closes below 6,800 and the bottom of the range would be a bearish signal with further risk to 6,600-6,500 and the 200-day moving average.
Lowered resistance is at 6,900-6,950 and the 50-day moving average.
The Nasdaq held crucial support at 22,500 on Friday’s intraday test to 22,402 but a fresh low for 2026. Closes below 22,500 keeps 22,000-21,500 in focus and levels that would represent 8% and 10% pullbacks off the all-time high from October 29th at 24,019.
New resistance is at 22,750-23,000. Closes above 23,250 and the 50-day moving average would be a slightly renewed bullish signal.
The Dow fell back below 49,600 on Thursday after holding this level the previous four sessions. Friday’s peak reached 49,743 with new resistance at 49,750-50,000 holding. Last Tuesday’s record high hit 50,512.
The closes below new support at 49,600 keeps risk down to 49,000-48,500 and the 50-day moving average in focus.
The Russell 2000 held key support at 2,600 in back-to-back sessions with Thursday’s bottom at 2,604. Closes below this level and the 50-day moving average would imply further weakness down to 2,575-2,525.
Resistance is at 2,675-2,725 with the January 22nd record peak at 2,735.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 20 for the second-straight session with Friday’s peak at 22.40. Lower resistance at 22.50-24 held. There is upside risk to 27.50-30 if the latter clears.
New support is at 20-19.50. Closes below 19 would be a slight relief for the bulls. However, the 17.50 level needs to be recovered to ease some of the volatility concerns.
We have been highlighting key support levels at: Nasdaq 23,250-23,000; S&P 6,850-6,800; Dow 48,500-48,000; and Russell 2,600-2,575 all month. The Nasdaq is the first index that is showing signs of succumbing to a deeper pullback to wind down February and into March.
The February monthly options have 4 days before expiration and the March monthly options have 32 days. We like to give directional option alerts 4-7 weeks to play out so we are now targeting April calls and puts (60 days) and possibly May options (88 days).
Futures are showing a mixed open for Tuesday. Dow futures are up 37 points; Nasdaq futures are down 56 points; S&P futures are up 4 points; and Russell futures are in the red by 8 points.
Momentum Options Alerts Update for 2/12/2026
Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 6-1 (86%, 3 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 172-49 (78% win rate) 65 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.
Iridium Communications (IRDM, $23.26, up $0.87)
Option: IRDM March 25 calls
Expiration Date: March 20th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.60 (2/9/2026)
Current Option Price: $1.00
Exit Target: $1.20, raise to $2 (closed half at $1.20 on 2/13)
Return: 88%
Stop Target: 65 cents (Stop Limit)
Action: The Limit Order to close HALF the Alert at $1.20 tripped after shares surged to a high of $23.94. The calls reached a peak of $1.40.
Friday’s peak hit $23.95 and our January 14th target at $24. If cleared, there is a chance for stretch up to $26. New support is $22.50-$22 and the 200-day moving average.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP, $29.69, down $0.22)
Option: KDP March 26 puts
Expiration Date: March 20th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.35 (2/5/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.20
Exit Target: $0.70
Return: -47%
Stop Target: None
Action: Support at $29.50-$29.25 was breached but held. Resistance is at $30.
We said we liked this alert as long as $30 held. This level was stretched but held on Thursday and Friday. We wanted to see a move below $27 last week and we aren’t thrilled with Wednesday’s price action. Earnings are due out next Tuesday so let’s see how this week unfolds.
LegalZoom (LZ, $6.87, up $0.21)
Option: LZ March 11 calls
Expiration Date: March 20th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.30 (2/2/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.20
Exit Target: $0.60
Return: -33%
Stop Target: None
Action: Lower resistance at $7.25-$7.50 was challenged with the high at $7.24. Support is at $6.50. Earnings are due out this Thursday and we are expecting a major move in the stock.
