MomentumOptions.com Pre-Market Update for 9/29/2025
Bulls Holding September Gains
The stock market rebounded on Friday to snap a three-session slide after fresh support levels held the previous session. The bears got the weekly win but the bulls held volatility in check to keep fresh all-time highs in play.
The Nasdaq topped out at 22,488 while ending at 22,484 (+0.4%). Resistance at 22,500 held. Support is at 22,000.
The S&P 500 settled at 6,643 (+0.6%) after testing a high of 6,648. Resistance at 6,650 held. Support is at 6,600.
The Dow made a run to 46,353 before closing at 46,247 (+0.7%). Resistance at 46,250 was cleared but held. Support is at 45,750.
Earnings and Economic News
Before the open: Carnival (CCL)
After the close: Progressive Software (PRGS), Vail Resorts (MTN)
Economic News
Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00am
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
For the week, the Nasdaq fell 0.7% and the S&P slipped 0.3%. The Dow dipped 0.1% while the Russell lost 0.6%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has rallied 16.4% and the S&P has jumped 13%. The Dow has added 8.7% and the Russell is up nearly 9%, for 2025.
We readjusted the uptrend channels for the Nasdaq and the S&P off of the September 2nd intraday lows, from the August 1st intraday lows and the lousy jobs report. The Dow’s was also adjusted but didn’t make much difference as the index has fallen outside of its uptrend channel. As far as the Russell, it is still holding its uptrend channel off the August 1st intraday low.
The Dow Transports fell out of an ascending triangle pattern to start the month and something we said we were monitoring. We mentioned the Transports can often provide early clues on the Dow’s trends with index (DJT) remaining in a 400-point trading range. Closes above 15,900 would be a renewed bullish signal while closes below 15,500 and the 200-day moving average would be a bearish development.
As far as the major indexes, the Russell 2000 held crucial support at 2,400 on Thursday with the low at 2,393. The first wave of backup support is at 2,375 and the bottom of the uptrend channel. If both crack, 2,339 will once again become a major battleground.
We said last week it was imperative the bulls cleared and hold current resistance at 2,475-2,500 for multiple sessions to avoid the possibility of a four-year, triple-top breakdown. Our 2025 price target for the index from February 23rd, 2024 is at 2,500 and the September 23rd all-time high hit 2,488. The previous high from last November was at 2,466 and before that it was 2,458 from November 2021.
The Nasdaq failed to hold fresh and upper support at 22,500-22,000 with Thursday’s intraday bottom at 22,185. Backup help is at 21,750-21,500 and the 50-day moving average.
Resistance is at 22,750 with last Monday’s lifetime peak at 22,801. Continued closes above these levels keeps upside to 23,000-23,250 on our revised price targets from August 11th in the mix. Our previous targets for the index had been at 20,000 when the index was at 15,996 on February 23rd, 2024 and 22,000 this past January.
The S&P 500 traded down to 6,569 on Thursday with new support at 6,600 getting stretched but holding into the closing bell. Additional layers of support are at 6,550 followed by 6,500 and the 50-day moving average. The latter was our upper end price target for the index when it was at 5,088 on February 23, 2004.
Key resistance is at 6,700 with the Monday and Tuesday tops at 6,698 and 6,699, respectively. We said on August 11th that closes above 6,500 would be bullish for ongoing strength towards 6,700-6,750. We raised our Price Target to 7,000 if the latter is cleared and held for multiple sessions.
The Dow held key support at 45,750 on Thursday after tapping a low of 45,785. A close below this level reopens downside risk to 45,000 and the 50-day moving average. A close below these levels would likely confirm a near-term top with additional weakness down to 44,000.
Resistance is at 46,500-46,750 getting cleared and holding. A close above the latter and Tuesday’s record high at 46,714 would imply renewed to 47,000-47,250. Our Price Target from February 23rd, 2024 for the blue-chips is at 50,000.
The Volatility Index (VIX) bubbled up to 17.74 on Thursday with key resistance at 17.50 getting breached but holding. The monthly high is at 19.38 with the 200-day moving average at 19.32. A close above 20 would be a very bearish sign for the bulls and the overall market.
Support is at 15 followed by 14.25-14. There is still a chance 13.50-12.75 comes into play on closes below the latter. The monthly low was at 14.33 with the August 28th bottom at 14.12.
The relative strength index (RSI) levels for the major indexes are back in uptrends following the three-day fade to the low 60’s for the Nasdaq and 50’s for the other three. The Nasdaq RSI closed at 63 on Friday and the S&P’s RSI is at 62. The Russell’s RSI is at 59 while the Dow’s RSI closed at 60 on Friday. Readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions.
Third-quarter earnings season will start in mid-October but there a few notable companies announcing this week. Nike (NKE) will report numbers after Tuesday’s close and Acuity Brands (AYI) and Conagra Brands (CAG) on Wednesday morning.
Momentum Options Alerts Update for 9/29/2025
Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2025: 45-13 (78%, 16 triple-digit winners) / 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners). Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.
Rocket Companies (RKT, $19.51, up $0.46)
Option: RKT November 25 calls
Expiration Date: November 21st
Entry Option Price: $1.00 (9/26/2025)
Current Option Price: $1.00
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares traded to a high of $19.75 with key resistance at $20 holding. Support is at $19-$18.75.
Volume was heavy in these calls on Friday as nearly 9,400 contracts traded. Closes above $20 should get a run back towards $22-$22.50 in play with the monthly peak at $22.56. Short interest remains very elevated as RKT ranks as the 5th highest shorted stock. This can lead to explosive short covering on any good news, or improving fundamentals.
Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ, $7.46, up $0.49)
Option: HTZ November 9 calls
Expiration Date: November 21st
Entry Option Price: $0.65 (9/25/2025)
Current Option Price: $0.x
Exit Target: $1.30
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: We apologize for not including Hertz in our video update on Monday.
NIO (NIO, $7.04, down $0.43)
Option: NIO November 9 calls
Expiration Date: November 21st
Entry Option Price: $0.37 (9/24/2025)
Current Option Price: $0.37
Exit Target: $0.75
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: Friday’s low kissed $6.96 with upper support at $7-$6.75 getting tripped but holding. Resistance is at $7.25-$7.50.
NIO can be a very volatile stock with the September 30th, 2024 and 52-week high at $7.71. Closes above $7.75 would be a bullish development for a possible breakout towards $9.50 and our mid-November target is at $9.50. This is near the breakeven price, technically, if shares are at $9.37 on the November 21st close. However, there is a lot of time premium built into these calls and there is a chance shares could run towards the low teens if $9.50 is cleared.
The December 28th, 2023 and the January 2nd, 2024 peaks are at $9.57 and $9.53, respectively. The September 19th, 2023 high is at $9.60 and represents the gap down from $10.47 and the prior session high on an earnings miss.
Core Scientific (CORZ, $17.94, up $0.61)
Option: CORZ November 21 calls
Expiration Date: November 21st
Entry Option Price: $0.75 (9/18/2025)
Current Option Price: $1.20
Exit Target: $1.50
Return: 60%
Stop Target: 80 cents (Stop Limit)
Action: Set an initial Stop Limit at 80 cents to start protecting profits and to avoid a loss.
Key resistance at $18.50 was challenged but held with the high at $18.45. A close above this level and the all-time high at $18.63 from last November could lead to a breakout into the low $20’s. Fresh support is at $17.50-$17.25.
