We have a big week of earnings and Apple (AAPL, $97.26, down $0.14) will get things rolling on Tuesday. The stock hit a low of $85 on October 10 and rebounded to $116 a few days later which shows that the volatility can be extreme.

There are various opinions on what type of numbers Apple will report but here is an idea. On average, Wall Street is expecting $1.11 a share on $8.1 billion in revenue. They expect 2.9 million in Macs sold, 4.5 million for iPhones and 10.5 million in iPods.

I would expect that the Mac numbers will come in better-than-expected as well as the iPhone number. A recent trip to Atlantic City only verified the number of iPhones being sold, in my mind. They were everywhere. The iPod sales should be slightly better given the huge cut on the iPod Touch from $399 to $229. If all these stars align, Apple will beat estimates.

The key, of course, on whether Apple will trade higher after announcing earnings will be its guidance. The company always seems to simmer Wall Street’s expectations by guiding lower and usually that has hurt the stock in the past. Maybe things will be different for a day or two and Apple can enjoy a nice rally like the good ol’ days.

The November 110 calls (QAAKB, $4.85, down $1.40) might be a good bet if you are bullish but they are expensive. Volume has passed open interest today so investors are expecting a big move out of Apple. The November 90 puts (QAAWR, $6.05, down $1.90) are also active as bears could be thinking Apple will test its lows again.

Either way, I think there are better trades out there but Apple looks poised for a significant move higher of lower over the next few days. Today’s action is mild but the behind-the-scenes option market is showing something different.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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