Bulls Push Another Round of Fresh All-Time Highs
The stock market concluded its third-straight winning week with the bulls pushing the major indexes to another round of fresh all-time highs. The v-shape rally is now complete with the major indexes pushing overbought conditions on the breakout.
The blue-chips lagged, however, as the Dow is still below its lifetime peak but is once again positive for the year. Meanwhile, volatility closed below another key level of support just as the first-quarter earnings season kicks into second gear.
The Nasdaq hit a record intraday high of 24,519 before ending at 24,468 (1.5%). Undefined resistance at 24,500 was cleared but held. Support is at 24,000.
The S&P 500 closed at at 7,126 (1.2%) after testing an all-time high of 7,147. Fresh resistance at 7,100 was topped and held. Support is at 7,000.
The Dow made a run to 49,717 while settling at 49,447 (1.8%). Resistance at 49,500 was cleared but held. Support is at 49,000.
Earnings and Economic News
Before the open: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Bank of Hawaii (BOH)
After the close: Alaska Air Group, Steel Dynamics (STLD), Wintrust Financial (WTFC)
Economic News
None
Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts
For the week, the Nasdaq skyrocketed 6.8% and the S&P 500 soared 4.5%. The Dow gained 3.2% while the Russell 2000 surged 6%. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is now up 5% and the S&P is higher by 4%. The Dow is back in the green by 3% while the Russell has zoomed 12% this year.
The Russell 2000 traded to a record peak of 2,793 on Friday with the breakout clearing the lower end of our February 6th price targets at 2,750-2,800. Closes above the latter likely gets upside towards 2,900-3,000 on the map.
New layers of support are at 2,725-2,700. Backup help is now at 2,650-2,600 and the 50-day moving average. Closes below the latter would indicate another near-term top.
The Nasdaq took out its previous lifetime high at 24,019 on Wednesday after closing higher for the 13th-straight session. We said coming into last week a death-cross was avoided the previous week and closes above 23,000 would suggest a near-term bottom with the possibility of new highs. That happened very quickly. There is potential bullishness up to 24,750-25,250 by the summertime, or at some point in 2026.
Fresh support is at 24,000-23,500. Closes back below 23,000 gets 22,500 and the 50-day/ 200-day moving averages back in the picture.
The S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,147 on Friday. Our January 9th target at 7,150 was approached and held by a field goal. Closes above this level would be bullish for further gains up to 7,350-7,500 over the next 6-9 months.
Support is at 7,100-7,000. A drop below the latter gets retest potential down to 6,800 and the 50-day moving average in play.
The Dow hit 49,717 on Friday’s intraday high with lower resistance at 50,000-50,500 easily holding. Closes above the latter and the February 10th all-time top at 50,512 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength to 52,000-53,000.
New support is at 49,000-48,500. Closes below the 48,000 and the 50-day moving average would suggest a near-term peak.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed below 17.50 and the 50-day moving average for the third-straight session after taking out these levels on Wednesday. We talked about the previous week’s closes below 20 in back-to-back sessions and the breakdown out of the symmetrical triangle. Continued closes below 17.50 might get weakness down to 15-13.50 on the board.
Key resistance moving forward is at 18-20. There is wiggle room up to 22-22.50 on closes above the latter.
We noted on our April 6th charts, the Easter ceasefire demand would be crucial for how oil, and the market, would trade over the near-term and if a v-shape recovery would be sustainable. Remember, we called for this price pattern to follow last year’s price action back in November and it played out beautifully and nearly identical.
Once the downtrend channels for the major indexes were cleared on the April 8th breakout, we talked about how a near-term bottom could be forming with the gravitation towards higher highs likely.
Now, the first thing we pointed out in this week’s charts are the relative strength index (RSI) levels. The Nasdaq and the S&P have RSI readings of 75 and 73, respectively. The Russell’s RSI is at 72 while the Dow’s is just below 69. Readings above 70 are considered overbought but can often get extended towards 80, and even 90, in some cases.
Weakness to start the week would help settle some of the FOMO (fear of missing out) fever but overbought levels can stay in play for weeks, and sometimes months. The ongoing geopolitical events have been extremely frustrating for many traders as they are getting trapped by reacting to the headlines instead of trusting the charts.
We have been mentioning that we have been fortunate enough to avoid the market volatility, and that we were actually in bullish options on stocks that have trended higher over the past few months. We have been saying this is truly a stock picker’s market and one that requires massive amounts of patience and homework. Nothing has changed with that statement.
For the year, the Track Record is at 18-3 (86% win rate) for our Velocity Options directional Alerts with FIVE triple-digit winners: IRDM calls 120%; KEY calls 107%; VIAV calls 271% and 319%; and BCRX calls 100%.
Momentum Options Alerts Update for 4/16/2026
Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 18-3 (86%, 5 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 184-51 (78% win rate) 68 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.
Text Alerts (Telegram):
Velocity Options: https://t.me/+uzxYHX8YEh85MzYx
Overview: We currently have five open directional alerts. We are adjusting the Stop Limit on QBTS due to the possibility of renewed volatility on Monday’s open.
Comcast (CMCSA, $29.63, up $0.28)
Option: CMCSA June 32.50 calls
Expiration Date: June 18th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.50 (4/17/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.55
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: 10%
Stop Target: None
Action: Fridays close above $29.50 and the 200-day MA for the second-straight day was bullish. This level is now support.
The high hit $29.78 with lower resistance at $29.75-$30 getting cleared and holding. Closes above $30 and the 50-day moving average would indicate possible upside to $32-$33.
The company announces earnings on Thursday so there is near-term risk based on their results and guidance. The chart and our research revealed the company has matched or topped earnings every quarter since 2018 so there shouldn’t be a surprise. There was a slight revenue miss last quarter but those numbers typically match or beat forecasts, as well.
The Fibonacci setup shows shares have the potential to make a run towards $32-$33.50. A v-shape recovery just to $32 on an earnings pop this upcoming week would be enough to get a triple-digit win.
Of course, if the company disappoints, and shares fall below $26, we could exit the Alert to save any remaining premium. Please consider this market moving event if you are in this Alert.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS, $21.69, up $0.17)
Option: QBTS June 30 calls
Expiration Date: June 18th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $1.00 (4/15/2026)
Current Option Price: $1.30
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: 30%
Stop Target: $1.15, lower to $1.05 (Stop Limit)
Action: Lower the Stop Limit at $1.15 to $1.05 as we want to ensure a profitable exit in case the calls gap a little low on Monday and below $1.15. We like to call this wiggle room as we want to stay in an Alert but don’t mind moving to the sidelines.
Key resistance at $22.50 stuck like Chuck to close out last week. If cleared and held for multiple sessions, we are expecting upside towards $27.50-$32.50. New support is at $21.25-$21.
We normally don’t go this far out-of-the-money with options but think this stock could have tremendous momentum going forward. We don’t need a huge move, we don’t even need shares to make a run towards $30. If we can clear $22.50 over the near-term it would be very bullish setup.
NIO (NIO, $6.83, down $0.04)
Option: NIO June 7 calls
Expiration Date: June 18th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.53 (4/13/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.70
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: 32%
Stop Target: 55 cents (Stop Limit)
Action: Key resistance at $7 was kissed on Friday’s peak. Closes above this level gets our March 10th target at $7.75 in the mix. Rising support is at $6.75-$6.50.
We mentioned we have a summertime target of $7.50-$8 as long as $6 holds going forward. A drop below $6.50 likely trips the Stop Limit.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX, $9.50, down $0.02)
Option: BCRX June 12 calls
Expiration Date: June 18th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.53 (3/24/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.45
Exit Target: $1.10
Return: -15%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares tested a high of $9.67 with lower resistance at $9.75-$10 holding. Key support is at $9.25. A close below this level gets downside action to $9-$8.75 in focus.
AT&T (T, $26.51, up $0.11)
Option: T May 31 calls
Expiration Date: May 15th, 2026
Entry Option Price: $0.50 (3/4/2026)
Current Option Price: $0.08
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: -84%
Stop Target: None
Action: Friday’s high tagged $26.61 with lower resistance at $26.50-$26.75 getting reclaimed. Support is at $26-$25.75. The major moving averages are starting to level out bit could still rollover. This pin action is signaling a pretty big move forthcoming.
In December (see chart), we witnessed the AT&T February 26 calls make a run from 8 cents to 45 cents after earnings. We exited for a 29% profit after being down 77% on the Alert. The calls went on to skyrocket to $3.04 just a couple of weeks later for a hypothetical return of 769% from a profiled price of 35 cents on Christmas Eve.
We aren’t sure if history can repeat itself with earnings due out this Wednesday, before the open. We said we would leave this Alert open until then and go from there. These calls still have over three weeks before expiration.
