Issue

The first half of Wednesday’s action was slightly choppy despite futures showing a positive open. The bears’ attempt to mount any momentum and make lower lows stalled ahead of Wall Street’s lunch break, as rising support held. The bulls controlled the second half of the action while pushing higher highs, but they continue to struggle with near-term resistance.

In This Issue: Market Commentary Momentum Stocks Weekly Play List Dear Momentum Stocks Weekly Subscriber, The bulls showed their usual

The bulls registered back-to-back wins for the first time this month following Wednesday’s surge past resistance. The slicking-talking pros were betting against the financial stocks coming into first-quarter earnings season, but I had a more favorable view. The group has let the market down in the past, but the two-day rally has been a relief following a tight trading range.

Last week was a rocky, choppy one for the market, which was to be expected ahead of the start of first-quarter earnings season. I mentioned last week that there could be a tight trading range with some downside weakness, but the good news is that the market’s backup support levels held.

Following some early-morning weakness on Wednesday, the bulls snapped themselves out of a two-day funk to push the market’s prior resistance levels. However, the bears’ stalled attempt at pushing support has kept a tight trading range in play that could continue into earnings season, which starts next week.

The bulls ended March with their biggest win since last October, as the market rallied throughout the month following its stay in a tight trading range. Friday’s no-joke unemployment numbers were a relief to Wall Street, and the start of April showed additional follow-through.

The bulls made a “follow-through” statement on Wednesday as they pushed towards the market’s upper resistance levels. The bears made a dent in the gains, and the major indices finished off of their intraday highs, but they are now dealing with fresh support and higher highs.

The bulls rebounded to get the overall win last Thursday following a final-hour push into positive territory. The bears still got the weekly win, which snapped a five-week slide, and they appear to have a little more momentum, as the S&P 500 closed lower. Volatility spiked to its highest level in nearly two weeks, but it still stayed below key resistance levels.

The bears got aggressive into Wednesday’s close, as the major indices tested fresh lows for the week. Near-term support was violated, but backup help is waiting in the wings. The bulls still have a shot at winning the week, however, as the trading day ahead of Good Friday has been extremely bullish in recent years.

The bulls continued their run to higher highs as they registered their fifth-straight week of gains. On the other hand, even with the broader market now in positive territory for the year, the talking heads continue to doubt the rally instead of embracing it.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Fed officials made sure they pleased Wall Street with their rhetoric. The news pushed the market to fresh session highs, as the bullish clues that were left ahead of the announcement played out as planned. More importantly, the VIX closed below 15 for the first time this year.

The bulls pulled a rabbit out of their hat following Friday’s rally past resistance, as the bears were stifled for the fourth-straight week. The surge off of the mid-February lows continues to play out according to plan, with the run to new highs coming on fresh legs.

The bulls held positive territory into Wednesday’s close, with tech leading the way higher. However, the push towards resistance stalled as Wall Street waited for news on interest rates from overseas.

The bulls wrapped up a solid week on Friday as March got off to a strong start, and the major indices have either cleared or are challenging key psychological levels that could lead to further strength. The major moving averages are also being challenged, and volatility has dropped to its lowest levels of the year. The “V-shaped” rally has also cut 2016’s losses in half, which has Wall Street wondering if the rebound has come too far too fast.

Wednesday’s action was choppy throughout most of the session before a late day push into positive territory. The Financial stocks were strong with the small-caps producing even stronger results. Volatility also fell below a key level of support and confirmed higher highs are still be in play.

The market finished mixed on Friday, but the bulls got their second-straight weekly win despite the choppy action. The current rally has also helped to erase much of February’s losses, although the bears still have a little piece of the pie, as tech is still in the red.

The bulls showed their resiliency on Wednesday following the opening onslaught by the bears. The late-day recovery was a beautiful sight, but upper resistance remains in the picture. Volatility also cooled into the closing bell, but it is still in the danger zone.

The market started the holiday-shortened week on a good note last Tuesday, as the bulls recovered major resistance following the three-day weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 also enjoyed their first three-session win streaks of the year following the rally that continued into Wednesday’s close.

The bulls made another strong showing on Wednesday as the market chugged higher for the third-straight session. Strength was displayed throughout the day, and the bears stayed in hibernation while volatility continued to relax. The stair-stepping to the upside looks good, but I always warn that the elevator drops are what we really have to watch out for.

The bears got their second-straight weekly win last week despite a major rally by the bulls on Friday to regain resistance. However, the break below the January and fresh 52-week lows by tech and the small-caps was something I previously said we should be wary of, as the technical damage continues to worsen.

The bulls tried to end their four-session slide and push near-term resistance on Wednesday, but the bears won the second half of the session to keep pressure on the market’s key support levels. Volatility remains elevated, but the VIX closed at a neutral level despite the mixed session.

The bears snapped a two-week losing streak following Friday’s pullback to the market’s lower levels of support. The bulls’ failure to clear major resistance levels continues to be a problem, with lower highs and lower lows coming into play, and tech and the small-caps are in danger of testing fresh lows for the year if there is no recovery this week.

The bears continued their assault to lower lows on Wednesday, and they were looking to get their third-straight win. However, the bulls fought back during the second half of trading to regain positive territory and keep the current trading range in play. Volatility was insane yesterday, but it tried to level out following the whipsaw action.

The bulls survived another volatile week to get their second-straight weekly win as the bears retreated during Friday’s session. The surge and rebound past key resistance levels was a bullish sign after wrapping up the worst January since 2009. However, stronger overhead hurdles remain, and February is always a tricky month to trade.

The market struggled on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest policy statement, and the major indices ended the day by closing near their session lows. The zombies were slightly dovish in their update, but they left interest rates unchanged while saying that they are watching global market developments. They maintained their upbeat view of the U.S. economy, but it failed to attract buyers to the market.

The market had its first winning week for 2016 following a strong Friday finish. Two-straight winning sessions hardly make a trend, and it’s a little too soon to a say a “V-shaped” recovery is in store. However, the near-term outlook appears promising as a number of technical indicators I follow turned bullish.

The market suffered its worst trading day in months on Wednesday, as volatility soared to fresh highs and the August lows came back into play. However, the bulls recovered nicely from the mid-day madness, and the small-caps rebounded to regain positive territory by closing bell.

It felt like a Paul Simon week for the bulls as they struggled with resistance before totally collapsing to fresh 2016 lows on Friday. The August 2015 lows are now in play, and the bears will be looking for weak corporate earnings to keep their momentum.

Wednesday’s opening rally felt suspicious, and the first 30 minutes of trading action confirmed that feeling, as the market gave back all of its gains and then some. The freefall to lower lows was a bearish sign and, to make matters worse for the bulls, volatility spiked into the closing bell.

For the past several years the Portfolio has mainly been bullish. At times, I have added bearish positions and this will likely be the year I return to this strategy in a much bigger way. Shorting stocks is like owning a stock long, except you want shares to go lower. You will have to have funds in your brokerage account to do these type of transactions but don’t let this deter you from making money in what could be a nasty 2016.

The market pulled back on Wednesday, as the major indices stayed underwater throughout the session. The damage was minimal, but volatility has heightened heading into the final trading day of 2015.

The Monday/Friday closes continue to be mixed, and this often is the case during trading ranges. The Dow closed lower last Monday to snap a two-win streak, but it has closed lower on four of the past six Mondays. This is a slightly bearish sign.

The market pulled back on Wednesday, as the major indices stayed underwater throughout the session. The damage was minimal, but volatility has heightened heading into the final trading day of 2015.

The nearly three-month battle will likely last into the New Year. The bears are keeping volatility elevated into the last trading week of the year and will be fighting hard to keep the upper end of the trading ranges in check. I recommend closing Discovery Laboratories (DSCO) at this morning’s open, and I have a new Stop Limit for Galena Biopharma (GALE).

The bulls took advantage of another strong rally on Wednesday to clear the indices’ major moving averages, and they are looking to end the week on an even higher note. The bears could end up hibernating into the end of the year, as today is the first “official” day of what may turn out to be a Santa Claus rally. However, volume has been light, and investors will need to decide if they are willing to hold stocks over the upcoming three-day weekend.

The bulls tried to hold on to the weekly win, but the bears used the final hour of trading last Friday to get the upset. The technical damage was severe, as the indices closed below their major moving averages. The December lows are holding, for the most part, but they will be in play again if there is no rebound today and if the bottoms of the mid-October trading ranges fail to hold.

The Fed raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since June of 2006, and the bears ran for cover. The bulls pushed the market’s upper resistance levels and are once again eyeballing a run to all-time highs. There are only 10 trading days left in the year, and this Friday is “quadruple witching” day, which is when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire. With volatility still slightly elevated, the bulls will need to keep their momentum if they want to finish the year in positive territory.

December option expiration week is usually a bullish time period for the market. A positive close today would be helpful for a possible bullish rebound this week, but the bears will likely take advantage of the nervousness heading in Wednesday’s possible rate hike.

The bears got their third-straight win on Wednesday, although the bulls were able to hold the market’s lower levels of support. The major moving averages were slightly stretched, but they are still in bullish setups despite the worries on Wall Street. However, the bulls need to make a stand today or the action could get a lot worse due to panic-selling.

With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates next week, I have said that the market could rally on a rate hike. Most of the suits-and-ties have said that the market will tumble once the Fed starts to raise rates, but I have been saying that the financial stocks need to lead the next rally to higher highs.

The back-and-forth action continued on Wednesday, as the market closed lower following a backtest to support. Volatility picked up slightly during Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday, and Wall Street seemed to be a little nervous ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Despite the repeated “market top” calls throughout 2015, the major indices are just 2% away, on average, from setting fresh all-time highs. The small-caps, on the other hand, are roughly 8% away from setting lifetime highs, so they have a little more work to do. However, the Russell 2000 has led this month’s continued rally and could make up ground, as a rising dollar benefits small-caps more than larger, multi-national conglomerates.

The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.19, down 0.74) traded in negative territory throughout the session with the low checking-in at 15.05. A move and close below 15 today would be fabulous. Resistance is at 16.50-17.50.

The Dow is lower by 10 points for the week, while the S&P is down less than a point. The Nasdaq is up a twelve-pack while the Russell is up 23 points, or 2%.

This week historically favors the bulls but volatility could remain slightly elevated in a shortened holiday week. Volume could also dry up and lead to wilder price swings as the suits-and-ties take extended vacations around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

The bulls reclaimed resistance on Wednesday despite the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that a possible December interest-rate hike is still in the cards.

The bears snapped their six-week losing streak last week while cracking several layers of support on the major indices. The damage was severe, and the Dow and S&P 500 fell back into negative territory for the year. This week promises to be just as volatile, as geopolitical events are likely to come into play.

The bears returned to their winning ways on Wednesday, as the market pulled back for the fifth time in the last six sessions. The losses were limited, however, as near-term support held, while volatility stayed elevated.

The trading range that ensued following last Monday’s push past prior resistance is holding fresh support. This is typically a bullish sign, and Friday’s rebound makes the case for higher highs into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and possibly Christmas.

The market pulled back on Wednesday following more rhetoric from the Fed about a possible rate hike in December. The zombies wanted to sound tougher in their stance on interest rates and to make their smoke-and-mirror show less predictable. However, it remains to be seen whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen was crying wolf again or if her words will be the real deal come December.

The gains from October helped the bulls snap a two-month losing streak but haven’t fully recovered the losses from August and September. The major indices gained 8%, on average, with the small-caps being the weakest link.

The bulls were testing the market’s upper resistance levels ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, but the initial rally faded following the news that the Fed elected to keep interest rates unchanged. The zombies said they want to see further improvement in the labor market and inflation move back towards their 2% target.

The bulls got their third-straight weekly win, as the market cleared several layers of resistance throughout last week. The bears have rolled over in October, with volatility fading throughout the month. There is still a week of trading to go and another full slate of earnings before the month ends, but all signs are pointing toward a continued rally.

The bears got another victory on Wednesday but did little damage to the bulls, as near-term support held. With Wall Street on the sidelines, the tight trading range has been giving mixed clues. However, the market remains slightly bullish despite a disappointing earnings season overall.

This week’s action will be exciting to follow, and I will be super busy watching our current trades while looking for new ones. Although I’m betting on the bulls to make continued higher highs, I’m watching the bears out of the corners of my eyes just in case.

The bears got back-to-back wins for the first time this month following Wednesday’s market pullback. The bulls made some headway during the morning hours, but the close below key support levels suggests that there could be further weakness ahead.

Third-quarter earnings season picks up steam this week and will likely play a major role in determining market action. The financial sector will be in focus as a number of key players in the industry will be reporting their numbers.

The bulls continued their push towards the market’s upper resistance levels on Wednesday and appear to be closing in on a massive breakout. The bears are hoping to make one last stand before possibly rolling over, but they are becoming less scary as volatility continues to drop.

A bottoming process could be forming as Friday’s action was the biggest one-day reversal in four years and the charts look bullish. However, the bears can strike quickly and will be looking for weak corporate profits and guidance as third-quarter earnings season starts this week.

The bulls made a strong run past resistance on Wednesday and, for the most part, they were able to hold these levels into the close. The small-caps closed right on the 1,100 level, and the VIX closed below 25. The cross-current winds are still indicting that we are in a trading range, but the bulls showed some moxie that tilted the seesaw action in their favor.

The Dow ended August at 16,528 and needs 214 points to finish September in the green. The technical picture remains weak for the blue-chips as all of the major moving averages are sloping lower.

Wednesday’s back-and-forth battle was mainly controlled by the bears, as they continued their push towards the lower levels of support. The bulls battled back to keep the losses respectable, but they struggled to regain resistance.

There are two things that worry me ahead of October. One, the week after September options expiration is historically bearish. Two, another government shutdown is looming if the zombies in D.C. can’t come together by month end about a way to keep the government funded.

The bears showed up late in the afternoon on Wednesday to push the major indices lower and get the market win. The bulls held the backup support levels that had served as prior resistance, but the failure to keep the momentum from Tuesday’s rally is concerning.

I have been covering my feelings on the Fed all year long and obviously, they will be the focal point of this week’s market action. It is possible the market stays in a tight range until the news on interest rates is announced. I believe the Fed has to raise rates a quarter point to save their credibility. If not, the market might take it as a negative.

The bears showed up late in the afternoon on Wednesday to push the major indices lower and get the market win. The bulls held the backup support levels that had served as prior resistance, but the failure to keep the momentum from Tuesday’s rally is concerning.

August was a nasty month for the market, and the first week of September wasn’t much better. The bears won last month, as the major indices registered losses of 6%-7%. Last week’s losses averaged upwards of 3% across the board.

The bulls showed some moxie on Wednesday and got Wall Street excited again following a final-hour rally to fresh session highs. The impressive rally is still suspicious, but crucial pivot points are in play, and the rest of the week should end with either a bang or a bust.

The S&P 500 was up 18 points for the week. I talked about the index slipping into a death cross last Thursday morning. By Friday’s close, it was official as the 50-day moving average settled a point below its 200-day moving average. It might be hard to correct this setup as both moving averages are curling lower with the 50-day moving average picking up steam.

The bulls showed Wall Street why they can’t be given up on following Wednesday’s strong gains. Instead of folding in the final hour of trading, the market got stronger and enjoyed its best day in four years.

I have been one of the bulls biggest cheerleaders for the past three years and it’s why I haven’t bailed on them this year. However, I love making money with the bears, as my track record shows, so do not panic if the next few months get even crazier.

The market remained rocky on Wednesday as Wall Street fretted over the latest Fed minutes. Although the chances are good that a rate hike will come in September, according to the slick-talking pros, the dovish minutes offered hope that the zombies might wait until later in the year before making their move.

Wall Street was thrown a curveball last week following China’s decision to devalue its currency. While it was a surprise to the suits-and-ties, it shouldn’t have been when it comes to the country’s politics.

Fear swept through Wall Street on Wednesday as the bears made their most significant move of the year. The technical damage caused from yesterday’s pullback was severe, but the bounce off of the lows might be telling another story.

The VIX gave the best clue of all that there would be a flush lower in the market following Wednesday’s test to 10.88. I have said all summer that any closes below 11.50 would confirm strong bullish momentum, and that there could be a possible push to single digits coming into play.

The bulls nearly got a clean sweep on Wednesday, but the blue-chips struggled to join the parade. For the most part, the bulls ended their three-session skid, but deeper concerns remain, as a number of high-profile companies continue to miss revenue expectations.

The bulls turned in a solid month for July despite elevated volatility as most of the major indices finished higher. The small-caps were weak and remain a concern heading into August, which is historically a poor month for the market, as well.

The bulls posted their second-straight win on Wednesday and showed some follow-through from Tuesday’s takeoff. The bears tried to hold the second layers of resistance, but they failed for the most part, with the VIX closing right at the 12.50 level.

I stayed aggressive on the run to fresh highs this month, but I have been warning that a trading range or possible pullback could develop afterwards. This doesn’t mean that higher highs aren’t in store this week or next month, but the technical indicators I follow are giving mixed-to-bearish signals at the moment.

The market finished mixed on Wednesday, with support and resistance holding on both sides. The possibility of a continued trading range with upside potential for the bulls is still high, but further weakness could tilt those odds in favor of the bears.

I could take action on AAPL or Dow options today, shortly after the open. If I do, be sure to look for a possible New Trade Alert. This week is all about Apple, the Dow and the VIX.

The market hates uncertainty, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see lower lows this week. The bulls appear to be on the brink of losing their grip, but the bears are in the same camp if Greece can somehow work out a deal to make the markets around the world happy. Earnings expectations are low, and it will be important for companies to beat the lower bar for profits and revenue expectations. While I’m still hopeful that a continued rebound is in the works, I’m remain wary of headline news and continued volatility if 20 on the VIX fails to hold.

Greece’s Finance Minister resigned, so a new deal could be reached even though the country is in arrears and is a complicated mess. It remains to be seen if other countries in the euro will feel jaded if Greece gets a kitchen pass but it is too early to see what domino might fall next. In the meantime, our portfolio is light and well positioned to add new trades to play further weakness, or to add bullish trades, if the trading ranges and 10-year uptrend lines hold.

The market is mixed for June, with the Dow down 64 points and the S&P off by a 6-pack. Tech is up 10 points, and the small-caps are higher by 33 points, or nearly 3%. There are two trading days left in the month, and there could be a 1%-3% move lower (or higher) by Thursday for these indices.

For now, Wall Street’s biggest worry has moved from the Fed to Greece, again. While it is likely inevitable the country will default and leave the eurozone, talks of the PIGS returned. Concerns over Portugal, Italy, and Spain having a domino effect on the euro with a Greece exit heated up. To make matters more interesting, Russia is joining the party and could dance with Greece.

Quarterly reports will be the next market catalyst following the Fed news, so there will be plenty of action to play between now and into late July. The portfolio is well positioned to play the next major trend, as we continue to bank profits despite the incredibly tough trading ranges that we have been in for months.

This week promises to be exciting, as does the rest of June. The current sector rotation and divergence has Wall Street confused once again, but they don’t study the market like I do. Retail and restaurant stocks have taken a beating on the rise in oil prices, or so analysts say, but I have been highlighting the strength in the financial and small-cap stocks.

May turned out differently than what most of Wall Street had planned for as the market finished the month higher. Despite the recent choppiness, the bulls are holding the top of the four-month trading ranges and are still gunning for historic all-time highs.

Despite the hard stance of “sell and May and go away,” Wall Street might be playing catch up again when it gets back from break. This week will be shorter than usual due to Monday’s holiday, but the first trading day after Memorial Day is usually bullish.

The importance of the Transports holding their recent lows has a lot to do with Dow Theory. Old school traders like to see both the Dow and the Dow Transports making new highs in tandem in an overall bullish market. Obviously, this is not happening with the blue-chips near all-time highs while the Transports are planted below their 200-day moving average.

The bulls continued their May momentum, as they rebounded from a choppy week with a strong Friday to get the weekly win. The bandwagon-jumping could continue despite the indices closing in on the top of their trading ranges, as traders (and the Fed heads) continue to try to call a market top.

While May has a reputation for being a bearish month, it has been bullish in recent years. During the past 16 years, May has been split, with the bulls and bears getting eight wins apiece. The “sell in May and go away” theme started gaining steam on Thursday’s pullback but settled down on Friday’s rebound.

For this week’s clues, watch the action in the small-caps and the VIX. I predicted single-digits for the VIX last year, and there is a good possibility that another test to 10 comes at some point this year. Last year’s test to 10.28 came in July.

I have said for over a year now, the Nasdaq hasn’t come this far not to trade at record all-time highs. It is also important to remember the Russell 2000 just hit another all-time high last Wednesday. The lack of follow through on Friday was disappointing but one-day doesn’t make or break a trend.

Last Friday’s win was the Dow’s third-straight up Friday along with an up Thursday ahead of Good Friday. Up Monday/Friday closes usually signal money is moving into the market while down M/F closes signal cash is moving to the sidelines. Mixed Monday/ Friday closes can indicate trading ranges.

The goal is to stay calm this week and to let the dust settle from the two-month trading range that has been keeping both the bulls and bears at bay. Once the all-clear signs are flashed, we will take action. The first quarter was incredibly busy and profitable, so the last thing we want to do is to give away profits.

History shows that when Wall Street and Main Street have been this bearish in the past, the S&P 500 has risen 98% of the time. Even more mind-blowing is that the average gain is more than 25% on the index. This would equate to the S&P trading past 2,500, but don’t tell this to the suits and ties.

While it is easy to say that the market rallied following the Fed’s more dovish stance, the real reason was based on the technicals, which is why it is so important to track them each and every week.