| Bears Push Correction Territory, Dip Bought (Again) Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts Major Market Levels Nasdaq Support To Hold: 24,750-24,500Bullish Price To Clear: 26,250All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)Bearish Breakdown Level: 24,500 The Nasdaq was up 1.2% for the week with the gain for 2026 at 9%. Backup and key support at 24,500 failed to hold on Wednesday following the intraday tumble to 24,425 and close at 24,442. This briefly represented an official 10% correction…that was bought the next day. Thursday’s recovery of the 25,000 level was followed by Friday’s ongoing rebound and close above resistance at 25,250. Additional hurdles are at 25,750-26,000 and the 50-day moving average. Monday’s mission for the bulls is for a close above 25,436 and the 20-day moving average. |
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S&P 500 Support To Hold: 7,400Bullish Price To Clear: 7,500All-Time High Level: 7,600 (7,620 on 6/2)Bearish Breakdown Level: 7,225 The S&P rose 1% for the week with its YTD move also north of 9%. Key support at 7,400 had been holding for four sessions before Wednesday’s stumble to 7,313. This was only a 4% slide from the all-time high at 7,620 with critical support at 7,225 holding. The 7,100 level represents a -7% decline. Resistance remains at 7,500 with Friday’s peak at 7,512. Closes above 7,550 7,600 would be a renewed bullish signal for fresh record highs towards 7,750 and our May 15th upper end price target. |
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Russell 2000 Support To Hold: 2,925-2,875Bullish Price To Clear: 3,000All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,046 on 7/1)Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800 The Russell added two points for the week and has skyrocketed over 18% in 2026. Key support at 2,925 failed to hold on Wednesday’s dip to 2,903. Thursday’s close back above this level remains suspect until 2,975 clears. We said last week a clean break below 2,925 and the 50-day moving average (now at 2,943) would likely get early June support at 2,800 back in focus. This is still the case going into August. Resistance remains at 3,000 and the top of the current range since the close below this level a month ago. The index tagged an all-time high of 3,046 on July 1st with our June 12th upside targets at 3,150-3,200. |
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Dow Jones Industrial Average Support To Hold: 51,500Bullish Price To Clear: 53,000-53,500All-Time High Level: 53,294 (on 7/7)Bearish Breakdown Level: 50,500-50,000 The Dow rose 0.9% for the week and has added 9% for the year. The close below 52,000 midweek was just the fourth since June 29th with a longer range between 51,500-53,000 playing out since June 15th. Multiple closes below 51,500 and the 50-day moving average (51,710) would imply weakness towards 50,000. The June 10th and 11th lows intraday lows kissed 49,913 and 49,977, respectively. Closes above 53,000 and the July 7th all-time high at 53,294 would be a renewed bullish signal. We raised our target for the Dow to 55,000 on June 24th. |
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| S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 20-22Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 24-26Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75) The VIX closed above the 18.50 on Monday and then 20 on Wednesday. The bears had another “perfect” opportunity to extend the Nasdaq’s selloff into the other major indexes but failed to hold 20 in back-to-back sessions. There has now only been three closes above 20 and 22 since April 9th but the bulls are by no means “out of the woods”. Once again for this week, watch 17.50 and the 50-day followed by 18.50-18.75 and the 200-day moving average. Obviously closes above 20-22 get heightened attention. Support is now at 15 with a more bullish development for the market being closes below this level and weakness towards 13.50-12.75. |
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Earnings and Economic News Before the open: Marriott International (MAR), Avista (AVA), Compugen (CGEN), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), Tyson Foods (TSN) After the close: Plantir Technologies (PLTR), Snap (SNAP), Clorox (CLX), Diamondback Energy (FANG), 3D Systems (DDD) Economic News PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45amISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00amConstruction Spending – 10:00am Commentary Last week was especially volatile and one that was easily predictable following a Fed update and major earnings from Tech. Microsoft (MSFT) shares surged 15% following blowout numbers while Meta Platforms sank 8% after missing earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) shares got whacked for 7% on Friday to close just south of $309 despite topping earnings and setting a record high north of $344 on Wednesday. Amazon (AMZN) skyrocketed 15% after reporting a 215% earnings increase versus expectations while also delivering a slight revenue beat. The bulls ability and resiliency to bend but not break continues to keep longer-term trading ranges in play. We often talk about the longer they are – the bigger the breakout, or breakdown, will be. There are still a number of high profile companies announcing numbers over the next few weeks but much of Wall Street’s focus will now shift to the economy and geopolitical news. Aside from Monday’s earnings we highlighted earlier, Caterpillar (CAT), Pfizer (PFE), and McDonalds (MCD) will in the spotlight Tuesday morning. After the close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX). Eli Lilly (LLY), Uber (UBER), SanDisk (SNDK) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly results on Wednesday. ConocoPhillips (COP) reports Thursday morning while Airbnb (ABNB) and DraftKings (DKNG) are due out after the close. Last week, the options market predicted earnings price moves of 10% for MSFT; 11% for META; 6% in AAPL; and 9% in AMZN. These price targets all played out beautifully in after-hours trading last Wednesday and Thursday. For Monday, the options market is pricing in a 14%-15% move for PLTR. This would have the stock surging towards $140, or tumbling to $105. Tyson Foods (TSN) fell 4% Friday ahead of Monday’s earnings announcement with the options pits predicting another possible 7% move. We talked about respecting price action and that continues to be the case. The clues are there on when we could get more aggressive, bullish or bearish. We just need to maintain patience until price action clearly favors the bulls or bears. As we head to press, Dow futures are are up 259 points while the Nasdaq futures are jumping 261. The S&P futures are gaining 43 points and the Russell futures are adding 17 ticks. The August monthly options have 18 days from Monday’s open before expiration. September and October regular monthly options have 46 days and 74 days, respectively, before expiration. Momentum Options Alerts Update for 7/30/2026 Closed Momentum Options Trades for 2026: 35-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners); 2025: 55-20 (73%, 17 triple-digit winners); 2024: 77-17 (82%, 38 triple-digit winners); 2023: 34-11 (76%, 8 triple-digit winners). Overall: 201-59 (77% win rate) 70 triple-digit winners. Please remember, all “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Stops” entered to close any alerts or “Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or “New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new position comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s along with Text Alerts and videos throughout the week. Text Alerts (Telegram):Velocity Options: https://t.me/+uzxYHX8YEh85MzYx Note: Earnings for a number of these Alerts are due out this week so please read our instructions carefully. American Airlines Group (AAL, $15.27, down $0.16) Option: AAL September 17 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.53 (7/31/2026)Current Option Price: $0.53Exit Target: $1.10Return: 0%Stop Target: None Action: Near-term resistance is at $15.50 and the 50-day/ 20-day moving averages. Closes above these levels gets upside to $16.50-$18.75 in the mix. Support is at $15-$14.75. A close below $14.50 could force an early exit. |
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Pfizer (PFE, $25.15, down $0.10) Option: PFE September 24 putsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.57 (7/22/2026)Current Option Price: $0.42Exit Target: $1.20Return: -26%Stop Target: None Action: Key resistance at $25.25. Support is at $24.75-$24.50. We would like to see a drop below $24.25 by Wednesday. Earnings are due out Tuesday. If shares clear $26 and the 200-day MA, exit the Alert to save the remaining premium. |
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KraneShares CSI China Internet (KWEB, $28.49, up $0.43) Option: KWEB August 30 callsExpiration Date: August 21st, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.35 (7/15/2026)Current Option Price: $0.30Exit Target: $0.70Return: -14%Stop Target: None Action: Shares closed on the session peak with lower resistance at $28.25-$28.50 getting cleared and holding. Support is at $28-$27.75. We said last week a move above $28.50 should get $30 in focus. We want to see $30 cleared quickly as these options expire in less than three weeks. |
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DraftKings (DKNG, $23.48, down $0.24) Option: DKNG August 30 callsExpiration Date: August 21st, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.95 (7/10/2026)Current Option Price: $0.25Exit Target: $1.90Return: -74%Stop Target: None Action: Lower resistance at $24-$24.25 was cleared but held with the peak at $24.05. Support is at $23.25-$23. Earnings are due out Thursday. Wall Street is expecting three cents a share on revenue of $1.52 billion. We believe they top numbers and guidance will be key. If shares fall below $22 by Friday, close the Alert. |
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Snap (SNAP, $4.69, flat) Option: SNAP September 7 callsExpiration Date: September 18th, 2026Entry Option Price: $0.55 (6/1/2026)Current Option Price: $0.15Exit Target: $1.10Return: -73%Stop Target: None Action: Key resistance at $4.75 was cleared and held on Tuesday’s 5% pop with Wednesday’s high at $4.89. Key support remains at $4.25. Earnings are due out Monday. If shares fall below $4.25, we are suggesting exiting the Alert to save the remaining premium. |
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