Record Highs Still Shocking Wall Street
The market broke out to fresh all-time highs last week, for the most part, as three of the four major indexes continued their run to bluer-sky territories. Missing from the group are the small-caps, and they will be this week’s focus on a multi-top breakout, or, another failed attempt at record highs.
Clouding the picture and having influence on the market will be ongoing political, as well, as geopolitical news, along with corporate earnings. Fourth-quarter earning season is mostly in the books but will continue through March in preparation for 1Q earnings season that starts in April.
The Dow jumped 97 points, or 0.5%, to end at 20,269 on Friday. The blue-chips traded in the green throughout the session while reaching an all-time intraday high of 20,298. I have been talking about bluer-sky territory and fresh resistance at 20,350-20,400 over the near-term on continued closes above 20,200-20,125. A move above 20,400 gets 20,550-20,600 in play. Backup support is at 20,000-19,900. Another 2%-3% move from current levels would put the Dow in the 20,800-21,000 range.
The S&P 500 added 8 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 2,316. The index reached a second half record high of 2,319 while pushing fresh resistance 2,325-2,350. Support has moved up to 2,300-2,290 with a close below 2,285 being cause for pause and a signaling of a possible near-term top. I’m looking fora near-term top at 2,375-2,400 and I will explain why I will be cautious at these levels below.
The Nasdaq climbed nearly 19 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 5,734. Tech continued its torrid pace at lifetime highs after setting its fourth-straight record high of 5,743 during Friday’s second half of action. Fresh resistance is at 5,750-5,800 with a good shot at 5,900-6,000 coming in March, or April, on continued momentum. Near-term support is at 5,700-5,675 with a close below 5,650 signaling a possible short-term top.
The Russell 2000 advanced 10 points, or 0.8%, to close at 1,388. The small-caps were the strongest on Friday, a good sign, and traded to a high of 1,391.18. The close into resistance at 1,385-1,390 was also bullish but the failure to take out the all-time high of 1,392.72 remains a concern. Fresh resistance is at 1,400-1,425 on continued closes above 1,395 and would represent a quadruple-top breakout – a rarity. Shaky support is at 1,375-1,370 on a drop below 1,385.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 10.85, down 0.03) traded to a third-straight lowered high of 10.95 on the open with lowered resistance at 11.50-12.50 easily holding. The intraday low of 10.55 failed lowered support at 11-10.50. Continued closes below the latter keeps 10 and single-digits in play. The February 1st 52-week low is at 9.97.
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