12:25pm (EST)
Futures were slightly up after midnight and remained that way ahead of the scheduled European markets opening. However, news broke shortly before 2am the “scheduled” open would be delayed for “technical issues” and I had a hard time sleeping. I talked last month about flash crashing and have warned there could be one of these types of events this year. That or a fat finger slip-up.
The overseas market was delayed by 30 minutes following the technical issues but ended the day higher.
Futures stayed steady ahead of Wall Street’s open despite Jobless Claims coming in slightly higher than expected. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose to 317,000 versus a forecast for 300,000.
Retail Sales for May came in slightly below the hype. The suit-and-ties were expecting a rise to 0.6% for May and were disappointed when the number of 0.3% missed expectations.
Economic news has been better-than-expected in recent weeks but these reports along with continued geopolitical tensions have traders uneasy. There are pockets of strength in this market despite the 2-day pullback and today’s action appears as though fresh support is trying to hold.
I have covered lower levels of support and tomorrow could be a telling clue how next week plays out.
The Dow is down 57 points to 16,786 while the S&P 500 is lower by 6 points to 1,937. The Nasdaq is losing 13 points to 4,318 and the Russell 2000 is slipping 3 points to 1,163.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 11.77, up 0.17) has traded up to 12.33 but has simmered down a little since the open.
I have another Profit Alert for today so let’s get inside the Members Area.
Closed Trades for 2014: 50-29 – the Weekly Wrap is 15-3 (83%) for 2014 (100-10, or 91% win rate, since 2011) and is designed for traders that want to use options with less risk. All trades are dated and time stamped so new subscribers can look at our past history to see how the trades have played out.
Do not risk more than 5% of your trading account on any one trade but do try to take ALL of the trades. Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “New Trade” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 12pm-1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames.
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG, $13.70, up $0.29)
July 14 calls (KOG140721C00014000, $0.55, up $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.35 (6/11/2014)
Exit Target: $0.70
Return: 57%
Stop Target: None
Action: Kodiak has traded up to $13.84 today.
Shares recently cleared the 50-day MA and the close above $13 was bullish. The stock could be setting up for a run to $15 that would easily double or triple these call options. They would be worth at least 70 cents if $14.70 is triggered by mid-July and $1-$1.05 if $15 is reached.
I have recommended this stock along with options over the past few years and a breakout appears to be on the horizon.
Hercules Offshore (HERO, $4.70, up $0.05)
October 5 calls (HERO141018C00005000, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.35 (6/11/2014)
Exit Target: $0.70
Return: 0%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares have cleared the 100-day MA at $4.64 this week and a run to $5-$6 could be in the works over the summer. I wanted to give the trade plenty of time to play out and why I went 4 months out. Open Interest is over 6,000 contracts.
Imax (IMAX, $26.83, down $0.09)
September 28 calls (IMAX140920C00028000, $1.00, flat)
Entry Price: $0.60 (6/5/2014)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return: 67%
Stop Target: None
Action: The close above the 50-day MA was bullish and should get $28-$30 in play. Yesterday’s high was $27.93. Support is at $25.50.
Limelight Networks (LLNW, $2.96, down $0.02)
September 3 calls (LLNW140920C00003000, $0.35, flat)
Entry Price: $0.15 (6/4/2014)
Exit Target: $0.45
Return: 133%
Stop Target: None
December 3 calls (LLNW141220C00003000, $0.50, flat)
Entry Price: $0.20 (6/4/2014)
Exit Target: $0.60
Return: 150%
Stop Target: None
Action: I would like to see a close above $3 today.
Roth Capital lifted its Price Target for Limelight Networks to $4.50 from $3 following its recent court win against AKAM. I have already covered the acquisition appeal of the stock and Captain Obvious echoed those comments with the late day Tuesday comments on the stock. In any event, it is good to see the suit-and-ties start to jump on board as analyst upgrades are good for a company’s stock.
If shares make a run to $3.50, the return should be 200% for each trade. A close above $4 would make both calls worth $1 and an even bigger payday. Support is at $2.75.
Fortinet (FTNT, $23.73, down $0.05)
July 25 calls (FTNT140719C00025000, $0.45, flat)
Entry Price: $0.25 (6/4/2014)
Exit Target: $0.50 (closed half @ $0.45 on 6/11/14)
Return: 80%
Stop Target: 25 cents
July 24 calls (FTNT140719C00024000, $0.85, flat)
Entry Price: $0.45 (5/30/2014)
Exit Target: $0.90 (closed half @ $0.80 on 6/11/14)
Return: 81%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: I would love to see a close above $24 today.
Shares traded to a high of $23.84 yesterday and are still on track for a run to $25 and fresh 52-week highs. The current 52-week high is at $23.93. Support is at $22 but moving up. I have Stop Targets to protect the other halves of the trades but they are not Stop Limit orders, yet.
Twitter (TWTR, $37.39, up $1.85)
January 50 calls 2015 (TWTR150117C00050000, $2.10, up $0.50) LEAP option
Entry Price: $1.75 (5/8/2014)
Exit Target: $3.50
Return: 20%
Stop Target: None
Action: Close HALF the trade at current levels.
Other 2014 Portfolio OPEN positions (4): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio but are down over 50%. They have longer expiration dates and are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results accordingly, when we close them or if the options expire. Click on the 2014 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
iShares Russell 2000 June 103 puts (from May 2014) – continue to hold
McDonald’s July 95 puts (from May 2014) – continue to hold as shares are nearing a close below $100. Yesterday’s low was $100.51.
Bed, Bath & Beyond – continue to hold as shares could still make a break below $60 by next week. Wednesday’s low was $60.53.
June 60 puts (from May 2014)
August 55 puts (from May 2014)
Apollo Group – continue to hold
June 25 puts (from April 2014)
August 23 puts (from April 2014)