12:35pm (EST)
Special Notice: If you haven’t logged into our Members Area to look at the charts from the weekend, please do so as it will really help you as a trader. We gave a detailed outlook on the near-term and long-term outlook for 2014 and these targets will help keep your emotions in check throughout the year.
We spend ALL weekend digesting where the market could be headed by the end of the year and there were a ton of factors to consider. The economy was the most deciding factor but geopolitical events, the Affordable Care Act, company earnings, jobs, interest rates, currency wars, seasonal changes in the market and past history, and other positive or negative events.
We mentioned we have been fortunate enough to pretty much nail where the market would be at the end of 2012 and 2013 as we do our yearly outlook in February. Of course, the near-term and yearend targets are a guess because nobody really knows where the market WILL be for certain so we like to call them “educated guesses”.
We shocked a lot of traders last year when we said the Dow would make a 3,000 point move in 2013 and we mentioned in January a similar situation could unfold this year.
We gave near-term targets for the indexes and said there was more room for the bulls to run this month and possibly into March/ April. From there, it will depend on 1Q earnings and if the economy is showing growth.
This week’s key events will be Head Fed Janet Yellen’s testimony on Thursday and another possible polar vortex hitting the left coast. With the market breaking out to new highs, a continued run to our near-term and December fluff target are possible, but we also said it is important not to nap on the bears. The bulls like to use the stairs to climb higher while the bears usually use the elevator.
The Dow has broken through resistance at 16,200 and is higher by 190 points to 16,293. The S&P 500 is up 22 points to 1,858 and has reached an all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq has cleared 4,300 with its 47 point pop to 4,310 while the Russell 2000 is up a 12-pack to 1,176.
We have a New Trade we are getting into today and we have room for up to 4-5 additional plays. Although we are excited about the current breakout, we need to see if prior resistance holds as near-term support before loading up. We still have quite a few call plays open to take advantage of a continued move higher and we expect to wrap them up over the next few weeks. From there, we could open new positions into April and May but it is important we continue to see the big picture.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest recommendation and for our current updates. We have one trade that has hit a 100% return so we are ringing the register on HALF. We could also have a New Trade for our Weekly Wrap by the close so stay close to your email inbox or follow us on Twitter to get instant updates and an alert on when the trade comes out.
