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It’s amazing to see the technical picture develop ahead of big news events when tracking the market and we have been mentioning with the inflection of 2Q earnings season, the FOMC meeting minutes (at 2pm today), and rising interest rates, there could be a major move coming in July.
We also have to remember the market has been range bound since the May highs and while we have done well trading the range, they do get stretched at the top and at bottoms. Following the June lows to the 100-day MA’s (moving averages) and a brief break out of the trading range, the bulls have used a strong July to push the indexes back to the top of the trading ranges with the chance of a potential breakout. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the zombie minutes could have a material impact on sentiment and if the indexes don’t break out to challenge new highs, a possible “double top” could be forming in the charts. This is why trading ranges can be frustrating and are hard to trade.
Futures were flat for much of last night and today’s action has been choppy with a tight trading range. This was expected as Wall Street waits for today’s news in less than 2 hours. While today’s action may not be the defining moment for a breakout or breakdown, it could be the start of one and with Friday’s earnings from some of the Financial heavyweights, we should know by next week how the rest of July plays out.
As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is down 28 points to 15,271 while the S&P 500 is lower by 2 points to 1,650. Imagine that. The Nasdaq is up 3 points to 3,508 and is holding 3,500. Ben Bernanke will be speaking AFTER the market closes so we will be watching the rest of the action into the evening and after midnight tonight.
We have updates for our current trades and we could be busy this afternoon with Profit Alerts or possible New Trades so stay locked-and-loaded. Subscribers, check the Members Area to get the latest and greatest.