April 2012 | Members

MEMBERS AREA

Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets.  You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one.  We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out.  Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates.  Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames but it is rare that we do.

1:25pm (EST)

Apollo Group (APOL, $34.54, up $0.12)

May 33 puts (APOL120519P00033000, $0.65, down $0.10)  

Entry Price:  $0.62 (4/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.25
Return:  5%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The options traded up to 86 cents as shares fell to a low of $33.71 earlier today.  Although shares have turned positive, we still think a test to $30 is coming.  Oh, student debt is approaching $1 trillion.

 

Potash (POT, $42.81, down $0.01)     

May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.50, flat)

Entry Price:  $0.40 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $0.80
Return:  25%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Our near-term target is for a dip below $40 to $38.

 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $44.23, down $0.03)

May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $0.75, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -12%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares touched a low of $42.80 but ended flat for the session.  The options hit $1 before falling back.  We have penciled in a drop below $40.


Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $71.25, down $2.57)

May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $1.30, up $0.50)

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80 (closed half at $1.20 on 4/23/12)
Return:  39%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Acuity Brands (AYI, $54.66, up $1.02)    

May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.60, down $0.20)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  0%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We would like to see a drop below $52.50 this week.  If so, there is a chance shares trade down to $47.50 which would get these options to at least $2.50. 

 

Caterpillar (CAT, $108.12, up $1.22) 

May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.40, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -53%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Caterpillar reports earnings on tomorrow and shares touched a low of $105.12 yesterday.  A move above $110 would be bullish but we are looking for a drop below $100 and down to $95 on uninspiring quarterly results.

 

PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $64.61, down $0.67)

May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $1.50, up $0.20)

Entry Price:  $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00 (closed half at $1.60 on 4/23/12)
Return:  55%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  This will be our way of playing Apple.  Continue to hold the other half.

 

Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $66.75, down $1.65)

May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.35, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  -30%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The company announces earnings on Thursday and we are looking for a miss and lowered guidance.      

 

First Solar (FSLR, $18.82, down $0.43)          

May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.50, up $0.15) 

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  67%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold. 

 

Tiffany & Company (TIF, $66, down $1)

May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.65, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return:  -38%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.


Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)

 

WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.

We will update this section in the morning.

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10:40am (EST)

S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $137.37, up $0.58)     

May 134 puts (SPY120519P00134000, $1.25, down $0.25)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.30 (closed half at $1.85 on 4/23/12)
Return:  33%
Stop Target:  $1.20 (Hard Stop)

Action:  Our Hard Stop of $1.20 has been hit this morning so we are officially out of this trade.  The puts dipped down to $1.19.  We will look to reestablish positions after Apple’s numbers which should give us a good clue on where the market is headed.  

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9:00am (EST)

Apollo Group (APOL, $34.42, down $0.42)
 
May 33 puts (APOL120519P00033000, $0.70, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.62 (4/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.25
Return:  13%
Stop Target:  None

Action: Shares traded down to $34.12 yesterday and the options reached a high of 79 cents. We will close half of the trade when shares hit $33 and our near-term target is for a test down to $30.

S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $136.79, down $1.16)

May 134 puts (SPY120519P00134000, $1.50, up $0.35)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.30 (closed half at $1.85 on 4/23/12)
Return:  46%
Stop Target:  $1.00, raise to $1.20 (Hard Stop)
 
Action: We got our dip below $136 this morning as the Spiders traded down to $135.94 which is why we closed half of the trade. We are still expecting a drop to $132 but this is a heavy week for headlines so we will take profits when we can to avoid giving back profits. We have raised the Hard Stop to $1.20 on the other half of the trade.

Potash (POT, $42.82, down $1.11)     
 
May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.50, up $0.20)
 
Entry Price:  $0.40 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $0.80
Return:  25%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action: Shares kissed a low of $42.36 yesterday while the options peaked at 59 cents. Our near-term target is for a dip below $40 to $38.
 
 
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $44.26, flat)
 
May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $0.80, down $0.05)
 
Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -6%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action:  Shares touched a low of $42.80 but ended flat for the session. The options hit $1 before falling back. We have penciled in a drop below $40.

     
Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $73.82, up $0.12)
 
May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $0.80, down $0.10)
 
Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80 (closed half at $1.20 on 4/23/12)
Return:  11%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action: LULU slipped to a low of $71.65 yesterday as the options reached a peak of $1.30.

Acuity Brands (AYI, $53.64, down $1.13)
 
May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.80, up $0.20)
 
Entry Price:  $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  33%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action:  Acuity traded down to $53.20 yesterday and the options kissed 85 cents. We would like to see a drop below $52.50 this week. If so, there is a chance shares trade down to $47.50 which would get these options to at least $2.50.
     
 
Caterpillar (CAT, $106.90, down $0.83) 
 
May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.50, up $0.05)
 
Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -41%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action:  Caterpillar reports earnings on tomorrow and shares touched a low of $105.12 yesterday. A move above $110 would be bullish but we are looking for a drop below $100 and down to $95 on uninspiring quarterly results.
 
 
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $65.08, down $0.60)
 
May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $1.30, up $0.20)
 
Entry Price:  $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00 (closed half at $1.60 on 4/23/12)
Return:  45%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action: We got our move under $65 but shares finished just above this level yesterday. The options hit $1.65 when the Q’s dropped down to $64.49 so we wanted to close half of the trade to lock-in profits in case there is a rebound.
 
 
Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $68.40, down $0.15)
 
May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.25, up $0.05)
 
Entry Price:  $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  -50%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action:  The company announces earnings on Thursday and we are looking for a miss and lowered guidance.
      
 
First Solar (FSLR, $19.25, down $1.40)
 
May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.35, up $0.35) 
 
Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  50%
Stop Target:  None
 
Action: Finally! Shares traded to a low of $18.97 yesterday as the puts touched a high of $1.55. The May 17’s are at $1 and the May 14’s are at 30 cents. Both of these options traded over 1,000 contracts so traders are taking positions now that we have cracked $20. 
 
 
Tiffany & Company (TIF, $67.00, down $0.15)
 
May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.55, flat)
 
Entry Price:  $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return:  -33%
Stop Target:  80 cents
 
Action:  Tiffany hit a low of $65.78 yesterday as the options traded up to 73 cents. Shares rebounded by the close to finish near even.
   
  
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
 
E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)
  
 
WATCH LIST SECTION
 
These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.
 

Fossil (FOSL, $125.55, down $2.89)

May 105 puts (FSLR120519P00105000, $1.35, up $0.45)

Thoughts: A move above $135 would be bullish, $125, bearish.

Netflix (NFLX, $101.84, down $4.27)
   
May 80 puts (NFLX120519P00080000, $2.00, up $0.80)
 
Thoughts:  For those of you in this trade, you’re gonna get paid today. Shares dropped $16 to $85 in after-hours trading 0n disappointing results.

   
Sears Holdings (SHLD, $52.00, down $1.12)
 
May 45 puts (SHLD120519P00045000, $1.40, up $0.15)

Thoughts:  We like these puts a lot and we will make a move on a drop below $50 with these options or cheaper ones.  

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