April 2012 | Members

Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets.  You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one.  We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out.  Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates.  Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames but it is rare that we do.

12:30pm (EST)

KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $54.76, up $1.56)

June 48 puts (KLAC120616P00048000, $0.50, down $0.60)

Entry Price:  $0.45 (4/26/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  11%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We will show you the chart on Monday but a drop below $50 and down to $45 could be coming.

 

First Solar (FSLR, $18.54, up $0.24)         

May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.45, down $0.15) 

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  61%
Stop Target:  90 cents, raise to $1.30 (HARD STOP)

June 15 puts (FSLR120616P00015000, $1.05, down $0.10) 

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  -6%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  The low for the May 18 puts has been $1.35 today as shares reached a high of $18.84 earlier this morning.  We said we would close the May puts if shares trade above $19 so let’s set a HARD STOP of $1.30 on the May puts.

 

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM, $81.40, up $0.46)

June 75 puts (IWM120616P00075000, $1.00, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  -10%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  The June options have 50 days before they expire.  We wanted to give this trade a lot of time to develop as we expect the Russell to test the 750 level by mid-June.

 

Joy Global (JOY, $71.71, up $0.95)

May 65 puts (JOY120519P00065000, $0.65, down $0.20)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -24%
Stop Target:  None

June 60 puts (JOY120616P00060000, $0.95, down $0.20)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  -15%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  We are looking for a close below $70 by the end of the week.

 

Apollo Group (APOL, $36.19, up $1.26)

May 33 puts (APOL120519P00033000, $0.30, down $0.20) 

Entry Price:  $0.62 (4/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.25
Return:  -52%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Potash (POT, $43.11, down $1.17)     

May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.30, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.40 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $0.80
Return:  -25%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We would like to see a close below $42.50 today.

 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $47.87, up $1.67)   

May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $0.45, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -47%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $72.89, up $0.95)

May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $0.90, down $0.20)

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80 (closed half at $1.20 on 4/23/12)
Return:  17%
Stop Target:  $1.00 

Action:  We wanted to see a close below $72 yesterday, which we got, but there is risk up to $75 on a continued rebound.   

 

Acuity Brands (AYI, $55.68, up $0.10)   

May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.45, flat)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  -25%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.  

 

Caterpillar (CAT, $103.74, up $0.30) 

May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.40, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -53%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $66.45, flat)

May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $0.65, flat)

Entry Price:  $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00 (closed half at $1.60 on 4/23/12)
Return:  13%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $68.36, up $0.75)

May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.20, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  -60%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The company announces earnings today after the close and we are looking for a miss or lowered guidance.  

       

Tiffany & Company (TIF, $68.50, up $0.09)

May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.30, flat)

Entry Price:  $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return:  -71%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)

 

WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.

We will update this section in the morning.

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11:20am (EST)

KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $55.01, up $1.81)

Buy to OPEN June 48 puts (KLAC120616P00048000, $0.45, down $0.65)

Action:  Set limit orders at 45-50 cents but do not pay over 55-60 cents to establish positions.

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9:00am (EST)

First Solar (FSLR, $18.30, down $0.34)         

May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.60, up $0.05) 

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  78%
Stop Target:  90 cents

June 15 puts (FSLR120616P00015000, $1.15, flat) 

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  0%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  The May 18 puts traded to a high of $1.76 when shares kissed a low of $18.05 yesterday.  We opened the June puts to play further downside weakness.

 

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM, $80.94, up $1.24)

June 75 puts (IWM120616P00075000, $1.10, down $0.30)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  -1%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  We wanted to give this trade a lot of time to develop as we expect the Russell to test the 750 level by mid-June.

 

Joy Global (JOY, $70.76, down $1.01)

May 65 puts (JOY120519P00065000, $0.85, up $0.15)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  0%
Stop Target:  None

June 60 puts (JOY120616P00060000, $1.15, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/25/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  0%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  Shares traded down to $70.01 yesterday and we were looking for a dip below $70.  We should get there by the end of the week.

 

Apollo Group (APOL, $34.93, up $0.38)

May 33 puts (APOL120519P00033000, $0.50, down $0.15) 

Entry Price:  $0.62 (4/20/12)
Exit Target: $1.25
Return:  -19%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Our plan is to start exiting the trade when shares dip below $33.

 

Potash (POT, $44.28, up $1.78)     

May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.25, down $0.30)

Entry Price:  $0.40 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $0.80
Return:  -38%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Resistance at $45 held as shares topped out at $44.84 yesterday.

 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $46.20, up $1.60)   

May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $0.50, down $0.30)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -41%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Green Mountain perked up to $47.60 on Wednesday and we would like to see a move back below $45 by Friday’s closing bell.   

 

Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $71.93, up $1.75)

May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $1.10, down $0.50)

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80 (closed half at $1.20 on 4/23/12)
Return:  28%
Stop Target:  $1.00 

Action:  We wanted to see a close below $72, which we got, but there is risk up to $75 on a continued rebound.  Shares traded down to $70.26 and we are expecting a drop below $70. 

 

Acuity Brands (AYI, $55.58, up $0.89)   

May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.45, down $0.15)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  -25%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares closed above $55 yesterday like we predicted but we wanted to see a close below this level.  

 

Caterpillar (CAT, $103.44, down $4.96) 

May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.45, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -47%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares traded down to $102.30 yesterday and we would like to see a close below $100 going into the weekend.

 

PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $66.45, up $1.72)

May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $0.65, down $0.85)

Entry Price:  $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00 (closed half at $1.60 on 4/23/12)
Return:  13%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The Q’s rallied nearly 3% but stayed under $67. 

 

Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $67.61, up $1.70)

May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.25, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  -50%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The company announces earnings today after the close and we are looking for a miss or lowered guidance.  

 

Tiffany & Company (TIF, $68.41, up $2.48)

May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.30, down $0.35)

Entry Price:  $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return:  -71%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.

 

Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (3):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)

 

WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.

 

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY, $96.62, up $1.62)

June 85 puts (ORLY120616P00085000, $0.85, up $0.20)

Thoughts:  The company announced after the bell last night and although they beat estimates, it appears they have lowered the range for the current quarter forecast.  Shares were up in after-hours trading last night so let’s watch them at the open.  If there is a pullback, we may use these June puts as a way to play a back test back down to $90.

 

S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $139.19, up $1.88)     

May 133 puts (SPY120519P00133000, $0.55, down $0.40)

June 130 puts (SPY120616P00130000, $1.10, down $0.45)

Thoughts:  We may go with these options or the May 134 puts again if resistance at $139-$140 holds.  

 

Fossil (FOSL, $129.05, up $2.97)

May 105 puts (FSLR120519P00105000, $0.85, down $0.40)

Thoughts:  Watch for now.

 

KLA-Tencor (KLAC, $53.20, up $1.57)

June 49 puts (KLAC120616P00049000, $1.00, down $0.60)

Thoughts:  The chart is showing a drop below $50 could be coming.

 

Sears Holdings (SHLD, $52.25, up $1.66)

May 45 puts (SHLD120519P00045000, $1.40, down $0.20)

Thoughts:  We like these puts a lot and we will make a move on a drop below $50 with these options or cheaper ones.