Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates. Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames but it is rare that we do.
3:35pm (EST)
NEW TRADES!!!
S&P Spider (SPY, $139.33, up $2.10)
Buy to OPEN May 134 puts (SPY120519P00134000, $1.15, down $0.80)
Action: Use limit orders up to $1.20-$1.25 but do not pay more than $1.30 to establish positions.
Potash (POT, $44.03, up $1.13)
Buy to OPEN May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.40, down $0.35)
Action: Use limit orders up to 45-50 cents to establish positions.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $45.37, up $1.65)
Buy to OPEN May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $0.85, down $0.30)
Action: Use limit orders up to 90 cents but do not pay more than 95 cents to establish positions.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $74.85, up $0.45)
Buy to OPEN May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $0.90, down $0.35)
Action: Use limit orders up to $1 to establish positions.
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1:00pm (EST)
Acuity Brands (AYI, $57.00, up $2.05)
May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.50, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return: -17%
Stop Target: None
Action: The May options have 31 days before they expire and we are expecting volatility to continue. These are “cheap” out-of-the-money puts so we are too worried about today’s surge. Although we are disappointed shares have traded above $56 our near-term target is for a drop below $50, down to $48. The 200-day MA is at $50.79.
LinkedIn (LNKD, $104.05, up $2.97)
May 82.50 puts (LNKD120519P00082500, $1.10, down $0.40)
Entry Price: $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 22%
Stop Target: $1.10
Action: CLOSE HALF of the trade at current levels.
Caterpillar (CAT, $109.15, up $2.41)
May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.55, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return: -35%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares are testing $110 again.
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $66.77, up $1.32)
May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $0.90, down $0.55)
Entry Price: $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: -10%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares have recaptured yesterday’s losses and we are looking for the Nasdaq to close below 3,050 and the QQQ’s under $67.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $65.00, up $3.47)
May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.40, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: 20%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares are doing a back test after setting fresh 52-week lows yesterday and if you aren’t in the trade, now is your golden opportunity.
First Solar (FSLR, $23.23, up $2.41)
May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $0.70, down $0.55)
Entry Price: $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: -22%
Stop Target: None
Action: The company is laying off a boatload of employees in an effort to save money and cut costs. First Solar continues to mirror RIMM in some ways and are hope is shares catch up and trade down to the teens.
Tiffany & Company (TIF, $66.98, up $0.38)
May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.80, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return: -24%
Stop Target: 80 cents
Action: A close below $64 should get us to at least $62, possibly $60 which would get these puts to $2.50.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW, $65.70, up $0.89)
May 60 puts (CHRW120519P00060000, $0.50, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.65 (4/4/12)
Exit Target: $1.30 (closed half at $0.90 on 4/11/12)
Return: 8%
Stop Target: 65 cents
Action: Let’s close the other half of this trade and move on to some higher beta names. We can always come back to this one when the 52-week low of $62.30 is busted.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (8): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
April Options Expire this Friday.
magicJack VocalTec April 30 calls (from March 2012)
E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Acme Packet April 40 calls (from February 2012)
Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)
Silver Wheaton April 42 calls (from March 2012)
U.S. Oil Fund April 45 calls (from February 2012)
Sony April 22 calls (from February 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.
S&P Spider (SPY, $138.34, up $1.29)
May 133 puts (SPY120519P00133000, $1.10, down $0.55)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Fossil (FOSL, $129.29, up $1.84)
May 105 puts (FSLR120519P00105000, $1.20, down $0.30)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Potash (POT, $44.00, up $1.10)
May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.50, down $0.25)
Thoughts: We would like to see a test to $43.50 which is where we may start small positions.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $44.27, up $0.55)
May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $1.05, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We would love to see a test to $45 which is where we are looking to establish positions. The 52-week low is $39.42.
Netflix (NFLX, $105.51, up $4.36)
May 80 puts (NFLX120519P00080000, $1.20, down $0.45)
Thoughts: Shares fell below $100 last Wednesday for the first time since late January. A test to $75 could be in the mix if the bearish momentum picks up.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $74.32, up $0.92)
May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $1.05, down $0.20)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Sears Holdings (SHLD, $59.20, up $1.20)
May 45 puts (SHLD120519P00045000, $0.85, down $0.10)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Apollo Group (APOL, $36.48, up $0.36)
May 36 puts (APOL120519P00036000, $1.20, down $0.20)
August 30 puts (APOL120818P00030000, $0.90, flat)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
**********************
9:00am (EST)
Acuity Brands (AYI, $54.95, up $0.88)
May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.70, down $0.35)
Entry Price: $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return: 17%
Stop Target: 50 cents
Action: Shares traded to a high of $55.57 and we want to see $56 hold. Our near-term target is for a drop below $50, down to $48. The 200-day MA is at $50.79.
LinkedIn (LNKD, $101.08, down $6.16)
May 82.50 puts (LNKD120519P00082500, $1.50, up $0.55)
Entry Price: $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 67%
Stop Target: $1.10
Action: CLOSE HALF WHEN THE PUTS REACH $1.80 which should occur on another drop below $100.
Shares traded down to $99.69 yesterday and we are looking for a close under $100. We would like to see a big move lower today which should get us our triple-digit profit. The options traded to a high of $1.65 yesterday.
Caterpillar (CAT, $106.74, up $0.85)
May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.75, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return: -12%
Stop Target: None
Action: We had a feeling shares could test $110 as yesterday’s high was $108.96 but we still like the position as resistance held.
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $65.45, down $0.74)
May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $1.45, up $0.25)
Entry Price: $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: 45%
Stop Target: None
Action: Our near-term target is $63 which would get these options to $2. However, we may close half of the position if the Nasdaq breaks above 3,000 today. The puts traded to a high of $1.54 yesterday.
Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $61.53, down $0.58)
May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.70, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return: 40%
Stop Target: None
Action: Shares hit a fresh 52-week low of $61.08 after our update and we said a move below $60 coming. Hopefully we get it today and our near-term target is $55 over the next week or two.
First Solar (FSLR, $20.82, down $0.01)
May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.25, flat)
Entry Price: $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 39%
Stop Target: None
Action: Monday’s low was $20.55 and we are looking for a drop below $20 over the next week or two. This level was the IPO price from late 2006 and a breach of $20 should lead to the mid-teens.
Tiffany & Company (TIF, $66.66, up $0.26)
May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.95, flat)
Entry Price: $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return: -10%
Stop Target: 80 cents
Action: Shares reached a high of $67.22 and we are looking for $68 to stick on any further pops. To the downside, a close below $64 should get us to at least $62, possibly $60 which would get these puts to $2.50.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW, $64.81, up $0.68)
May 60 puts (CHRW120519P00060000, $0.70, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $0.65 (4/4/12)
Exit Target: $1.30 (closed half at $0.90 on 4/11/12)
Return: 23%
Stop Target: 65 cents
Action: Shares traded to a high of $64.96 and we were looking for $65 to hold. The 52-week low is $62.30 and we are expecting a trip below $60 this week. The puts would then be in-the-money and would be worth $2 if shares test $58.
Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (8): These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around. This means we would not open any new positions. We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire. Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.
April Options Expire this Friday.
magicJack VocalTec April 30 calls (from March 2012)
E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)
Acme Packet April 40 calls (from February 2012)
Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)
Silver Wheaton April 42 calls (from March 2012)
U.S. Oil Fund April 45 calls (from February 2012)
Sony April 22 calls (from February 2012)
WATCH LIST SECTION
These trades are NOT recommendations. They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices. We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List. We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.
We will be adding SPY, DIA, and other trades to the list so stay tuned.
Potash (POT, $42.90, up $0.08)
May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.75, down $0.05)
Thoughts: We would like to see a test to $43.50 which is where we may start small positions.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $43.72, up $0.13)
May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $1.15, down $0.10)
Thoughts: We would love to see a test to $45 which is where we are looking to establish positions. The 52-week low is $39.42.
Netflix (NFLX, $101.15, down $3.02)
April 95 puts (NFLX120421P00095000, $0.55, up $0.15)
May 80 puts (NFLX120519P00080000, $1.65, up $0.15)
Thoughts: Shares fell below $100 last Wednesday for the first time since late January. A test to $75 could be in the mix if the bearish momentum picks up.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $73.40, down $0.11)
May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $1.25, down $0.15)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Apache (APA, $92.27, down $1.38)
May 85 puts (APA120519P00085000, $1.15, up $0.05)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Sears Holdings (SHLD, $57.90, up $0.23)
May 45 puts (SHLD120519P00045000, $0.95, down $0.15)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
Apollo Group (APOL, $36.12, down $0.58)
May 36 puts (APOL120519P00036000, $1.40, up $0.20)
August 30 puts (APOL120818P00030000, $0.90, flat)
Thoughts: Watch for now.
