9:00am (EST) continued…

The blue-chips have shown some strength but don’t get nervous.  A break over 13,200 would cause some concern but the Dow should fall below 13,000 soon.  Bear flags can last a week or two so let’s see how this plays out:

 

Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets.  You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one.  We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out.  Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates.  Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames but it is rare that we do.

S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $138.61, down $0.47)

May 134 puts (SPY120519P00134000, $1.35, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.15 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $2.30
Return:  17%
Stop Target:  60 cents

Action:  We have a near-term target of 1,350 for the S&P which would get the Spiders down to $135.  This should be enough to get us a double over the next week or two.

 

Potash (POT, $43.26, down $0.64)     

May 40 puts (POT120519P00040000, $0.55, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.40 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $0.80
Return:  38%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares traded down to $43.13 yesterday and we would like to see a close below $42.75 today.  Our near-term target is for a test down to $40, possibly $38.

 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $43.42, down $1.95)

May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $1.10, up $0.25)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/17/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  29%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Green Mountain traded down to $43.15 which gets $41 into play if shares fall below $43.  From there, a trip below $40 would be in order.

 

Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $74.78, down $0.13)

May 67.50 puts (LULU120519P00067500, $0.90, flat)

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  0%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We are looking for $75 to hold as resistance and we are expecting a drop below $70.

 

Acuity Brands (AYI, $56.62, down $0.03)

May 50 puts (AYI120519P00050000, $0.50, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  -17%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We would like to see a move below $55 by Friday. 

 

LinkedIn (LNKD, $105.00, up $1.13)

May 82.50 puts (LNKD120519P00082500, $1.00, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.80 (closed half at $1.10 on 4/17/12)
Return:  17%
Stop Target:  $1.10

Action:  Shares reversed course late in the day and traded up to $106.54.  Shares have taken the steps higher but we are expecting an elevator drop down within the next month.

 

Caterpillar (CAT, $109.21, up $0.80) 

May 92.50 puts (CAT120519P00092500, $0.45, down $0.15)

Entry Price:  $0.85 (4/12/12)
Exit Target: $1.70
Return:  -47%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares reached $109.73 and failed $110 again.  Continue to hold.

 

PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, $66.61, down $0.17)

May 65 puts (QQQ120519P00065000, $1.05, up $0.15)

Entry Price:  $1.00 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return:  5%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We are looking for a move back below $65.

 

Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $66.54, down $1.54)

May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $0.35, down $0.15)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  -30%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Shares have jumped $5 since Monday’s close on an upgrade and we might have to throw in the towel if $70 breaks.  Shares were on the verge of collapsing and setting new 52-week lows so we think the bounce is temporary.

         

First Solar (FSLR, $21.35, down $1.61)         

May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.00, up $0.20) 

Entry Price:  $0.90 (4/11/12)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return:  11%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Once the $20 level falls, this trade will really pick up steam.

 

Tiffany & Company (TIF, $66.43, down $0.53)

May 62.50 puts (TIF0519P00062500, $0.75, flat)

Entry Price:  $1.05 (4/9/12)
Exit Target: $2.10
Return:  -29%
Stop Target:  80 cents

Action:  We would like to see a move below $65 by week’s end.  

  

Other 2012 Portfolio OPEN positions (8):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2012 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

 

April Options Expire this Friday.

magicJack VocalTec April 30 calls (from March 2012)

E*Trade Financial July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Bank of America January 12.50 calls 2013, July 12 calls (from March 2012)

Acme Packet April 40 calls (from February 2012)

Dendreon May 22 calls (from January 2012)

Silver Wheaton April 42 calls (from March 2012)

U.S. Oil Fund April 45 calls (from February 2012)

Sony April 22 calls (from February 2012)

 

WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.

 

Fossil (FOSL, $132.65, up $2.65)

May 105 puts (FSLR120519P00105000, $0.90, down $0.60)

Thoughts:  These are expensive puts for options this far out-of-the-money but we may be getting a nice setup for a quick trade.

 

Netflix (NFLX, $106.96, down $0.06)

May 80 puts (NFLX120519P00080000, $1.05, down $0.10)

Thoughts:  Watch for now.

 

Sears Holdings (SHLD, $56.01, down $1.37)

May 45 puts (SHLD120519P00045000, $1.10, up $0.10)

Thoughts:  Watch for now.  

 

Apollo Group (APOL, $35.92, down $0.20)

May 36 puts (APOL120519P00036000, $1.40, up $0.05)

August 30 puts (APOL120818P00030000, $1.00, up $0.05)

Thoughts:  Watch for now.