November 2011 | Members

Please remember, ALL “Exit Targets” and “Stop Targets” are targets.  You should not have any “Hard Stops” entered to close any trades or “Exit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one.  We will send out a “Profit Alert” or “Trade Update” if we want you to close a position OR if a new trade comes out.  Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the 9am and 1pm updates.  Also, we will usually give you a heads-up if we think we are going to send an email outside of these time frames but it is rare that we do.

1:25pm (EST)

Newpark Resources (NR, $9.68, up $0.28)

December 10 calls (NR111217C00010000, $0.80, up $0.20)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (11/4/11)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return:  33% 
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Everyone should have gotten filled for 65 cents or less but we tipped our hand as others seem to be following our lead.  We feel shares are easily headed to double-digits over the next few weeks and could make a run past $12.  At $12, the calls would be worth $2.   


Rambus (RMBS, $18.11, up $0.10)

December 20 calls (RMBS111217C00020000, $2.00, flat)

Entry Price:  $1.70 (11/2/11)
Exit Target: $3.40
Return:  18% 
Stop Target:  85 cents

Action:  We have a $30 price target on Rambus if they get a favorable court ruling in their current litigation case.  The deliberations have been ongoing for 7 weeks now and we should (should) hear something soon.  


S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $124.72, down $1.53)

December 128 calls (SPY111217C00128000, $3.10, down $0.20)  

Entry Price:  $2.15 (11/1/11)
Exit Target: $3.25 (closed half at $3.00 on 11/3/2011)
Return:  42%
Stop Target:  $2.00

Action:  Continue to hold.     


Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $47.92, down $0.58)

December 52.50 calls (LVS111217C00052500, $1.30, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.25 (11/1/11)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return:  4%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We are looking for shares to make a push past $50 to $55 over the next month.     


Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $21.37, up $0.87)

January 25 calls 2012 (SWKS120121C00025000, $1.10, flat)

Entry Price:  $0.80 (10/31/11)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return:  38%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  This trade got crowded which is why there isn’t a pop in the options today as the premiums were a little juiced heading into earnings.  We will keep the trade open as shares are setting up for a run past $25.      


Alcoa (AA, $10.76, down $0.11)     

December 13 calls (AA111217C00013000, $0.10, down $0.00)

Entry Price:  $0.15 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $0.36
Return:  -33%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.


Vivus (VVUS, $9.90, up $0.41)

December 10 calls (VVUS111217C00010000, $0.95, up $0.10)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  90%
Stop Target:  None

March 12 calls 2012 (VVUS120317C00012000, $2.25, up $0.20)

Entry Price:  $1.55 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $3.10
Return:  45%
Stop Target:  75 cents

Action:  Shares have kissed $10.  Continue to hold.   


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $12.99, up $0.09)

December 12.50 calls (TSM111217C00012500, $0.85, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (10/26/11)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  70%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  The 52-week high is $14.05 for TSM and we are looking for a print of $15 by mid-December.  This would get the options to at least $2.50.


Qualcomm (QCOM, $56.07, down $0.04)

November 57.50 calls (QCOM111119C00057500, $0.70, down $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.95 (10/18/11)
Exit Target: $1.50-1.90
Return:  -26%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We feel Charlie Browned with this trade because we called the earnings pop yesterday but shares didn’t move as much as we had hoped for.  Qualcomm only needs to trade to $58.50 for us to breakeven on this trade.  Some of you may have gotten in at better prices this week and we were hoping to close half of the trade today for a profit but we will leave it open into next week.  Shares could still make a push towards $60 and Tech could lead the next leg higher on the market.    


Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $18.25, down $3.71)

November 17.50 puts (SGEN111119P00017500, $0.65, up $0.55)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (10/5/11)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return: 8%   
Stop Target:  None

Action:  This is not a new trade but one that has been on hold.  We recommended these puts at the beginning of October as our chart work told us a drop below $20 was coming.  However, shares had been strong until today.

The position was down 83% but is now positive which is why you can never count out a trade until it is over.  We have to be careful we don’t give up gains but we will hold it open into next week.


Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD, $27.61, down $0.43)     

January 25 calls 2012 (SPRD120121C00025000, $4.60, down $0.30)

Entry Price:  $1.50 (9/9/11)
Exit Target: $2.80 (closed half at $2.90 on 10/27/11)
Return:  150%
Stop Target:  $4.00 (HARD STOP)

Action:  Continue to hold the other half.


Other 2011 Portfolio OPEN positions (3):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2011 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

JDSU Uniphase January 20 calls (from August 2011)

                      January 16 calls (from August 2011)

Lufkin Industries December 80 calls (from September 2011)

Potash November 52.50 calls (from October 2011)
 

WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.

We will update this section on Monday with some fresh ideas.

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11:25am (EST)

NEW TRADE!!!

Newpark Resources (NR, $9.48, up $0.08)

Buy to OPEN December 10 calls (NR111217C00010000, $0.60, flat)

Action:  Use limit orders up to 65 cents but do not pay over 70-75 cents to establish positions.  We feel shares are easily headed to double-digits over the next few weeks and could make a run past $12.  At $12, the calls would be worth $2.    

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10:10am (EST)

Shares of Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $17.99, down $3.97) are down over 16% today and the put options we recommended back at the beginning of October are now in the green following the 550% pop they are getting today.      

Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $17.99, down $3.97)

November 17.50 puts (SGEN111119P00017500, $0.65, up $0.55)

Entry Price:  $0.60 (10/5/11)
Exit Target: $1.20
Return: 8%   
Stop Target:  None

Action:  This is not a new trade but one that has been on hold.  We recommended these puts at the beginning of October as our chart work told us a drop below $20 was coming.  However, shares had been strong up until today. 

The position was down 83% but is now positive which is why you can never count out a trade until it is over.  We have to be careful we don’t give up gains so we will see where things are at in our afternoon update but these options could still double.  However, we would not start new positions.

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8:50am (EST)

Rambus (RMBS, $18.01, up $0.44)

December 20 calls (RMBS111217C00020000, $2.00, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $1.70 (11/2/11)
Exit Target: $3.40
Return:  18% 
Stop Target:  $2.45

Action:  We have a $30 price target on Rambus if they get a favorable court ruling in their current litigation case.  The deliberations have been ongoing for 7 weeks now and we should (should) hear something soon.  


S&P 500 Spiders (SPY, $126.25, up $2.26)

December 128 calls (SPY111217C00128000, $3.30, up $0.75)

Entry Price:  $2.15 (11/1/11)
Exit Target: $3.25 (closed half at $3.00 on 11/3/2011)
Return:  47%
Stop Target:  $2.00

Action:  We closed half of this trade today because the premiums are high and we wanted to take some risk off the table.   


Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $48.50, up $0.25)

December 52.50 calls (LVS111217C00052500, $1.40, down $0.10)

Entry Price:  $1.25 (11/1/11)
Exit Target: $2.50
Return:  12%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  We are looking for shares to make a push past $50 to $55 over the next month.     


Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $20.50, up $1.42)

January 25 calls 2012 (SWKS120121C00025000, $1.10, up $0.35)

Entry Price:  $0.80 (10/31/11)
Exit Target: $1.60
Return:  38%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The company had a mixed earnings report as they beat estimates for the quarter but missed on the outlook.  Shares are just below $20 so we may be okay.        


Alcoa (AA, $10.87, up $0.17)

December 13 calls (AA111217C00013000, $0.11, flat)

Entry Price:  $0.15 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $0.36
Return:  -27%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  Continue to hold.


Vivus (VVUS, $9.49, flat)     

December 10 calls (VVUS111217C00010000, $0.85, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  70%
Stop Target:  None


March 12 calls 2012 (VVUS120317C00012000, $2.05, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $1.55 (10/28/11)
Exit Target: $3.10
Return:  32%
Stop Target:  75 cents

Action:  We could print #10 today.       


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, $12.90, up $0.18)

December 12.50 calls (TSM111217C00012500, $0.80, up $0.05)

Entry Price:  $0.50 (10/26/11)
Exit Target: $1.00
Return:  60%
Stop Target:  50 cents

Action:  The 52-week high is $14.05 for TSM and we are looking for a print of $15 by mid-December.  This would get the options to at least $2.50.


Qualcomm (QCOM, $56.11, up $3.93)

November 57.50 calls (QCOM111119C00057500, $0.75, up $0.45)

Entry Price:  $0.95 (10/18/11)
Exit Target: $1.50-1.90
Return:  -21%
Stop Target:  None

Action:  The options opened at $1.20 but we decided to hold these calls into Friday and we will see where we are at tomorrow. 


Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD, $28.04, down $0.14)     

January 25 calls 2012 (SPRD120121C00025000, $4.90, down $0.20)

Entry Price:  $1.50 (9/9/11)
Exit Target: $2.80 (closed half at $2.90 on 10/27/11)
Return:  147%
Stop Target:  $4.00 (HARD STOP)

Action:  Continue to hold the other half.


Other 2011 Portfolio OPEN positions (4):  These are trades that are still open in the portfolio that have longer expiration dates or are on “hold” but are not worth mentioning until they turn around.  This means we would not open any new positions.  We are still keeping track of the trades and we will record the results, accordingly, when we close them or the options expire.  Click on the 2011 Portfolio link in the Members Area to view ALL open/ closed trades.

Special Note:  Seattle Genetics is below $20 so we will probably bring back coverage of the trade this afternoon. JDSU has been acting well and Lufkin is over $60.


JDSU Uniphase January 20 calls (from August 2011)

                      January 16 calls (from August 2011)

Lufkin Industries December 80 calls (from September 2011)

Seattle Genetics November 17.50 puts (from October 2011)

Potash November 52.50 calls (from October 2011)


WATCH LIST SECTION

These trades are NOT recommendations.  They are trades that we like but have not added to the portfolio as an official recommendation because of market conditions or because we are waiting for better entry prices.  We try not to have more than 12-15 open trades at any one time which is why we created a Watch List.  We will not list entry prices because these stocks are on the verge of breaking out or they could sell off.


Newpark Resources (NR, $9.40, up $0.60)

December 10 call (NR111217C00010000, $0.60, up $0.15)

March 10 calls (NR120317C00010000, $1.20, up $0.20)

Thoughts:  We may release this trade as early as today but we aren’t sure what chain we are going to go with.  A run to $15 is possible over the next 3-6 months.  


Limelight Networks (LLNW, $2.93, up $0.04)

December 3 calls (LLNW111217C00003000, $0.40, flat)

Thoughts:  When stocks are under $5, sometimes it’s just better off to buy shares.  We are thinking off adding Limelight to our Weekly Wrap Portfolio but may wait until after the company announces earnings on Monday.  We are going to do some research over the weekend to see what could be in store.  Back in August, shares dropped 35% after the company announced.


Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS, $14.48, up $0.73)

December 18 calls (FAS111217C00018000, $0.75, up $0.20)

January 20 calls (FAS120121C00020000, $0.70, up $0.05)

Thoughts:  This is a risky trade because it is a ETF that trades 3x whatever the Financial sector does.


VMware (VMW, $100.19, $3.00)

December 110 calls (VMW111217C00110000, $1.60, up $0.30)

Thoughts:  We may go back to the well after booking triple-digit profits a few weeks ago.


U.S. Bancorp (USB, $25.60, up $0.29)

December 26 calls (USB111217C00026000, $1.05, up $0.05)

Thoughts:  Continue to watch.


SkullCandy (SKUL, $15.29, up $0.44)

December 15 calls (SKUL111217C00015000, $1.55, up $0.25)

Thoughts:  We decided to sit this one out but we had a good feeling about it.  Shares were up 8% in after-hours last night and we will update the story this afternoon.   


SanDisk (SNDK, $50.41, up $1.25)

December 55 calls (SNDK111217C00055000, $1.15, up $0.20)

January 60 calls 2012 (SNDK120121C00060000, $0.90, up $0.10)

Thoughts:  Continue to watch.