Posts Tagged ‘high beta stocks’

Apple (AAPL) Breaks Below 50-Day MA

Tuesday, October 9th, 2012

12:30pm (EST)

We talked about historic October crashes in our Weekly Wrap and we also wanted to mention how today, October 9, has marked the end of bull markets. It may be just a coincidence, but with Tech falling below 3,100 and Apple (AAPL, $628.72, down $9.45) getting crushed again today, it makes you wonder.  Apple has traded to a low of $623.55 today and we said before the week started if $650 didn’t hold a quick test to $620 was in store.

We profiled the WEEKLY Apple October 600 puts (AAPL121012P00600000, $1.60, up $0.50) on Monday after they opened at $1.00.  Monday’s high was $1.71 on Apple’s close below $640 but today the puts have traded to a high of $2.40.  These options expire this Friday and are still way out-of-the-money (OTM) but they have been tradable.

The regular Apple October 600 puts (AAPL121020P00600000, $5.50, up $1.70) have an extra week of time and were the safer trade.  These options are up 45% today but they too are still OTM.

If $620 holds on Apple and the company does announce the iPad mini this week or next, shares could easily zoom back to $650.  If there is no announcement and shares continue to pullback, Apple could test $600, or perhaps $575, on an earnings miss.

Apple is scheduled to announce their numbers on October 25.

As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is down 84 points to 13,499 while the S&P 500 is lower by 11 points to 1,444.  The Nasdaq is off 42 points to 3,070.

We have a lot to cover today, including updates on our latest recommendations so let’s go check the tape.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for our thoughts and we will be back in the morning with a full update.

Don’t Fight the Fed

Friday, September 14th, 2012

12:25pm (EST)

The most hated rally in history continues…

There is an old saying on Wall Street that says “Don’t fight the Fed” and going into this week, many of the suit-and-ties weren’t expecting much from Ben Bernanke.  The way the action was unfolding this week, we had a good feeling Big Ben would show his hand and call the quantitative easing bets made by the other zombies.

If Germany would have said no to more bailouts then Bernanke would have stalled but with the rest of world throwing in their chips, he had to call.  We aren’t sure what kind of hand will win this high-stakes poker game but the markets are rolling and we are glad to be a part of it.

This week has been sweet as we were able to close 2 more winning trades for triple-digit profits of +160% and +113%.  We also closed another option trade for 55%.  We also have a number of current trades that are showing strong gains today.  We have said September could be special and the final 3+ months of trading are going to be a fun ride.  Speaking of a fun ride – we knew there was a reason Randy Moss was back in the NFL this year!  We like to post this video every time the bulls make a jailbreak to new highs…

(We always get juiced when we play this one.)

Our last 16-out-of-18 closed option trades have been winners and we will have up to 10 more new option recommendations over the next few weeks.  Next Friday the September options expire and we mentioned a few weeks ago we were building our next batch of trades to play the market into October, November and December.

We also said this is becoming a “stock” picker’s market as we have used a mixture of calls AND puts since August.  Some of our other monster winners during our recent run include +100% on JCPenney (JCP, $28.89, up $0.23) put options, +193% on Wellpoint (WLP, $58.19, flat) call options, +160% on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $31.03, down $0.42) call options, and 2 put option trades on Monster Beverage (MNST, $54.01, up $0.60) which returned our subscribers 113% and 55%, respectively.

Our 2012 Track Record for all of our trades (Daily and Weekly Wrap) is now at a sizzling 126-37.  We continue to rank as one of the highest option trading newsletters in the industry and we seriously doubt anyone can match our results.

Our point is, we hope you are ready for continued action because we plan to get really aggressive once the market becomes more volatile which it will in October.  If the market continues higher, there will be plenty more opportunities to play call options and down the road if there is a serious correction, which we think there will be, then the returns you can make will be mind-boggling.

We will have a lot to talk about this weekend and we have updated our trades one last time before we relax and watch the rest of the session.  As we head to press, the Dow is up 60 points to 13,600 while the S&P is higher by 8 points to 1,478.  The Nasdaq is showing a 32 point pop and is at 3,188.

We will be back Sunday night/ Monday morning with our next update so until then, have a great weekend everyone!

Bears Win Another Monday

Tuesday, September 11th, 2012
9:00am (EST) 

It was another typical Monday for the bears as the market ended the session lower.  If we count last Tuesday as a Monday, the Dow has now fallen 14-out-of-15 days to start the week but the bulls have been holding support. 

Getting off to a good start to any race is always feels good but it’s how you finish that matters.  The bulls did push positive territory shortly after the open and into the afternoon but the selling pressure picked-up in the last hour of trading which gave the bears the win.

The Dow fell 52 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 13,254.  The blue-chips ended near their low for the session but held 13,250 and traded to a high 13,324.  The 73-point trading was expected but a break below 13,200 could get some bulls nervous.  A close above 13,300 could be a good sign going into Wednesday and Thursday’s fireworks. (continued…)


If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here.  We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter.  Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis.  Together, we are 123-37 for 2012 which is a 77% win rate for all of our trade recommendations.

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Apple (AAPL) Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Monday, August 27th, 2012

12:25pm (EST)

To no surprise, the market has traded in a tight range with both the bulls and bears getting a little piece of the action. 

Economic news has been light although there was a regional report worth mentioning.  The Texas Manufacturing Survey came in at -1.6 for August which was a huge improvement from July’s reading of -13.2.  

As far as story stocks, Tiffany & Company (TIF, $62.60, up $4.10) missed earnings by a penny and cut full-year guidance but shares are up.  Tiffany reported a profit of $91.8 million, or $0.72 a share, versus $90 million, or $0.69 a share, in the year-earlier period.  As far as its outlook, the company gave a 2012 profit range of $3.55-$3.70 a share versus prior estimates of $3.70-$3.80 a share.  Despite the lowered guidance and slightly worse-than-expected results, the stock is up 7%.

Apple (AAPL, $677.17, up $13.95) is popping 2% higher and hit an all-time high of $682 share shortly after the open.  We mentioned the news from Friday night the company won its patent litigation case against Samsung and it was a huge win along with the $1 billion in settlement charges.  Google (GOOG, $668.88, down $9.75) shares are trading lower as worries arise on what impact this could have on its Android phones. 

Google, along with others, may have to come up with a “work around” plan as it tweaks or deletes certain features in new devices that may threaten Apple’s existing patents.

Samsung, which trades in the Asian markets, lost $12 billion in market cap, as shares were punished overseas. 

We’ve got a little action happening with our current trades which are showing some nice gains so we have to roll so we can update our subscribers.

As we head to press, the Dow is up a dozen points to 13,170 while the S&P 500 is higher by 4 points to 1,415.  The Nasdaq is advancing 10 points to 3,079.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Big Week for Market Headlines

Monday, July 16th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

We have mentioned volatility would be picking up and last week’s 2% intraday moves are a telling sign this market is ready to explode higher, or, Friday’s back test was the last in what could be a huge correction

The Dow zoomed 204 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 12,777 on Friday. The blue-chips dipped to 12,606 on Tuesday and we highlighted the next level of support was at 12,600. We said if this level failed to hold, the bears would target 12,400-12,350 and the 200-day MA. Thursday’s low was 12,492 before the Dow rebounded to close at 12,573 and Friday’s rally gets 12,800-13,000 back into play over the near-term. The Dow was at 12,772 going into Monday’s open and advanced 5 points, or 0.04%, for the week. For 2012, the blue-chips are up 560 points, or 4.6%.

If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more and check our chart work for the indexes and our current trades, please click here.

2Q Earnings Start This Week

Monday, July 9th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

We have a lot to talk about this morning so let’s get to it.

The Dow declined 124 points, or 1%, to finish at 12,772 on Friday. The blue-chips traded to a high of 12,946 on Tuesday and we said to watch for a back test up to 12,800-13,000. We said a trend change would occur on a move above 13,200-13,250 which is still in play but the close below 12,800 favors the bears. The move back below the 100-day MA (moving average) was also bearish and the next level of support is at 12,600. From there, a move below 12,400-12,350 and the 200-day MA would confirm a possible test to new lows for the year. The Dow was at 12,880 going into Monday’s open and fell 108 points, or 0.9%, for the week. For 2012, the blue-chips are up 555 points, or 4.5%. (continued…)

If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a unprecedented start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 104-21 and we doubt you will find a hotter option trading newsletter.

Bears Hold Resistance, Crack Support

Friday, July 6th, 2012

12:30pm (EST)

Expectations were running high coming into the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report and estimates were being raised following yesterday’s “better-than-expected” ADP Employment numbers. Goldman Sachs (GS, $95.14, down $0.78) bumped their estimates from +70,000 to +125,000 and should have stuck with their original bet.

There were no silver linings in the report which showed the economy added just 80,000 nonfarm jobs. The average estimate for Nonfarm payrolls was 100,000 so it was a big miss.

Private sector employers added 84,000 jobs, well below what the ADP suggested, and short of expectations for 106,000. The unemployment rate came in at 8.2% and matched expectations. Average Hourly Earnings were up a smidge to 0.3% versus a forecast for a 0.2% gain while the Average Workweek edged up to 34.5 hours from 34 hours.

We told our subscribers Thursday morning a 2% market drop could be in the cards if Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed and that the back test to resistance was nearly complete. The bears have cracked one layer of support and it’s too early to tell if they push another layer today or on Monday but things could get nasty in a hurry.

Second-quarter earnings will start to trickle in next week and there have been plenty of high-profile warnings. Alcoa (AA, $8.65, down $0.27) and Yum Brands (YUM, $64.35, down $0.40) will lead the parade which starts Tuesday and we will have a complete list of the companies reporting in our Weekly Wrap.

As far as market, the Dow is down 190 points, or 1.5% to 12,706. A close below 12,750 favors the bears going into next week while a finish above 12,800 would favor the bulls.

The S&P 500 is lower by 18 points, or 1.2%, to 1,349. The 1,350 level has been a bloody battleground for both sides and whoever wins the over/ under will be the favorite for next week.

The Nasdaq is getting spanked for 50 points, or 1.7%, and is at 2,925. A close below 2,925-2,900 would be bearish while a finish above 2,950 could be bullish heading into next week.

Our feeling is today’s U.S. economic news will spill over into the overseas markets on Monday/ Sunday night which could cause some heavy selling pressure next week if the next layer of support doesn’t hold.

It will be interesting to see how the second half of trading plays out because we doubt there will be a lot of traders willing to stay long over the weekend. We often say the market or a stock will take the stairs higher but an elevator lower and we are getting some nice pin action on our current put options.

We will be back Sunday night with our Weekly Wrap (which is 20-0 for the year) and some chart work. If the selling pressure picks up, look out below. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!

Market Poised for Big Move

Wednesday, July 4th, 2012

2:00pm (EST)

The Dow gained 72 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 12,943 on Tuesday. The blue-chips reached a peak of 12,946 and might have reached 13K had Tuesday been a full session. We said at the beginning of the week the bulls could push 13,000 and that 13,200-13,250 would represent a trend change and possible summer rally. They are getting close.

The S&P 500 added 8 points, or 0.6%, to end at 1,374. We said on Tuesday there was a chance 1,375 would come into a play and the index finished a point below this level. If cleared, we said pencil-in a run to 1,400.

The Nasdaq jumped 25 points, or 0.8%, to settle at 2,976. Tech went out at its high for the day and we said a close above 2,975 might be bullish for a run to 3,000 this week

Thursday’s economic news will be a game changer which could extend the rally, or, be a huge wake-up call for Wall Street and the bulls.

The MBA Mortgage Index numbers are due out at 7am but it will be a big day for the labor market.  The Challenger Jobs Cuts and ADP Employment Change Report numbers are due out at 7:30am and 8:15am, respectively, followed by Initial and Continuing Claims at 8:30am. If these numbers come in worse-than-expected, we could have a huge selloff at the start of Thursday’s action.  If they match expectations or come in better, the market will rally.

Friday will also be vulnerable to headline risk as Nonfarm Private Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings and Average Workweek, all hit the wire at 8:30am.  The action from Thursday will dictate Friday’s direction, most likely, so the market could move 2%-3% each day.  

We will be back Thursday morning with all the action so make sure you are locked-and-loaded because we could be taking profits or opening new trades. Until then, enjoy the July 4th holiday!

Bulls Rebound, Can’t Clear Resistance

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bulls tried to get some momentum going on Tuesday but ran into trouble after stretching resistance. The bears got a few licks in before lunch following comments from Germany’s Angela Merkel who said they will not support joint-euro bonds. We talked about this last Monday and said we would expect Germany to throw a fit and how they should go back to their own currency.

Her exact words were “I don’t see total debt liability as long as I live”. Those do not sound like negotiating words ahead of this week’s European Union summit which dashed Wall Street’s enthusiasm for a productive meeting. The market turned south on the news and slipped about 0.5% before the bulls recovered. Merkel’s comments overshadowed the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index which came in at -3 versus a forecast for a reading of 2.

The major indexes reversed course once the overseas markets closed and traded to session highs going into the final hour of trading. The bears were able to keep the gains contained as resistance held by the bell.

The Dow added 32 points, or 0.3%, to end at 12,534. The blue-chips tested a low of 12,452 before reaching a peak of 12,576. The Dow came close to cracking 12,600 but fell short with support still sticking at 12,400-12,350.

The S&P 500 bounced a half-dozen points, or 0.5%, to settle at 1,319.99. The index traded down to 1,310.30 shortly after the open but was able to recover and pushed 1,324.24 intraday. We went decimals today because a break below 1,310 will lead to 1,300-1,290. We knew the move above 1,315 would lead to a test of 1,325 but as you can see, this level was not cleared. Watch these same numbers today.

The Nasdaq popped 18 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 2,354. Tech touched a low of 2,832 but was able to reclaim the 2,850 level after peaking at 2,862. A move above 2,875 would be bullish while a break below 2,825 gets 2,800 in play.

The Russell 2000 closed at 765, up 3 points, while the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 19.72, down 0.66) closed below 20 but stayed in a tight range.

Futures are showing a slightly red open and look like this: Dow (-8); S&P 500 (+0.10), Nasdaq (-1). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trade updates

Bears on the Attack

Monday, June 25th, 2012

1:00pm (EST)

We have been busy this morning opening new trades and updating our current ones. The charts we showed you this morning are holding up like a Champ so let’s go check the action inside the Members Area.

As we head to press, the Dow is getting hammered for 166 points, or 1.3%, to 12,474 while the S&P is down 24 points, or 1.8%, to 1,310. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points, or 2.1%, and is at 2,832.

We will be back in the morning with our next update but stay locked-and-loaded in case we see something else we like today!